123. Stop Chasing Altcoins, Bitcoin’s Perfect Storm in 2024

If we look at the predicted capital that could come into a Bitcoin ETF within the first 12 months is astronomical. The predicted inflows are ranging between 30 billion up to $300 billion just from the first few ETFs.

And if we think about just these two events, the halving and an ETF, the halving side, you've got a supply shock, Bitcoin supply drops in half, then you've got huge demand inflows from an etf. And if you look at your basic economics graph, when there's more people that want it good than is available, it drives price up. I can't even put into words how big this event is going to be and people is leaping on it.

Welcome back to another episode of the Ben and Bergs Podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift. Alongside me is Bergs, your favorite MBA and COO of Collective Shift. Join us as we bring you world class crypto research and strategies to help you dominate this crypto bull market. As well as behind the scenes view of us scanning a fully remote crypto subscription research business here in Australia. And today we've got a cracker episode for you as the attention goes away from Bitcoin and Ethereum over the last couple of months into the alts. Everyone's chasing Solana, everyone's chasing airdrops, everyone's chasing the new bright flashy thing. We have seen all of this before and it's one of the reasons why we wanted to do a bitcoin only episode today. To give you some reasons as why 2024 is going to be the perfect storm for bitcoin, some narratives to watch out for and why we think the narrative and attention is going to switch back to the top two, the big btc, big eth, the big daddies of the crypto industry and really take market share market hold early in 2024. Bergs We've seen Michael Sailor recently just continue to buy more BTC mate. This guy is relentless, mate.

He's an absolute permeable. So he's acquired an extra 14620 bitcoin for 615 million at an average price of 42 grand per bitcoin. That's as a boxing day. He now holds 189,150 Bitcoin acquired for 5.9 billion at an average price of 31,000 per Bitcoin. This is incredible mate. And what he's doing is he's issuing shares for his company, selling that off. So the Shares get diluted and buying bitcoin, but there is no dilution. The actual, in bitcoin terms, it's increased by 1.7% per share. So this is pretty much a bitcoin fund. It is absolutely incredible. He just keeps buying more and more and, mate, I just love to see it. It is absolutely, absolutely incredible.

And he's buying because of the conviction in where bitcoin's going over the next sort of, you know, or goodness knows how many years, but especially in 2024, there's so many exciting things that are creating this perfect storm for bitcoin. And if we look at over the last, you know, 20 months, Bitcoin ended the year in 2023, up about 150%. And there's a number of narratives and catalysts that we think are going to play out over these next 12 months to really set bitcoin up for massive growth. Obviously, the first one is the bitcoin halving event. We've spoken about that a lot here on the podcast. This is happening around April where the. The rewards for miners or, you know, per block is coming down to about 3.125 BTC, currently sitting at 6.25 BTC. So that Bitcoin issuance is going to halve reducing the already illiquid supply of bitcoin and even reducing the inflation rate even further than it has been, obviously, in the last four years. So that's a big event that's coming up. Historically, every time we've had a bitcoin halving event, the year after that event has been ginormous. The price continues to reach new cycle highs for that 12 months after the bitcoin halving event. And we fully believe that that will happen again. So this is where Saylor's really setting himself up. He's collecting that btc, he's getting things ready. We've got the ETF at the time of recording the etf. We haven't heard anything just yet, but that date is coming in on the 8th, somewhere between the 8th and the 10th of January. We believe it's about a 90% chance of approval. So with that ETF coming in, the bitcoin halving coming out, all happening within the first few months of 2024. It's really setting up for some exciting price action.

It's amazing. So let's just look at the etf. Anybody with a brokerage account will be able to buy bitcoin. New money inflows will come into that etf, not via Coinbase or other crypto exchanges just by. You can even call your broker and do OTC trade. Hey mate, take 5% of what I'm holding, put it into bitcoin. And it's weird because the crypto world is ignoring this massive event and they're focused on little pumps. And if you're mucking around and you're farming, you're trying to get airdrops, that's great. If you've got your BTC and E stacks sorted, don't make the mistakes that Ben and I did where you chase the shiny thing. It gets all of your attention because a few people on Twitter are talking about it. Don't forget the big thing. Don't get distracted. Now what's really interesting is a discussion about crypto will start to move away from Twitter to like cnbc, like in America or, or over here, like front page of the afr. This is going to be reported on every single day because big funds are going to be buying it and everyday people going to be buying it through an etf. And if we think about just these two events, the halving and an etf, the halving side, you've got a supply shock. Bitcoin supply drops in half and then you've got huge demand inflows from an etf. And if you look at your basic economics graph, when there's more people that want a good than the good is available, it drives price up. This is going to be a huge, like, mate, I, I can't even put into words how big this event is going to be. And people are just sleeping on it. I cannot believe it.

Yeah, 100%, man. If you, and if you look at the market cap of bitcoin, right now we're sitting at about $850 billion at time of recording. So touch on a trillion dollars. And if we look at the predicted number, sorry, the predicted capital that could come in to a Bitcoin ETF within the first 12 months is absolutely astronomical. From the different institutions, the different entities are predicted inflows are ranging anywhere between $30 billion right up to $300 billion just from the first few ETFs. And then we had the CEO of Grayscale come out and shared insights where he believes that a spot Bitcoin ETF could unlock around $30 trillion worth of advised wealth. So we're talking about advisors here allowing their clients where the big money is, to actually put their money into Bitcoin. And this is something that, at a real level, I was speaking with some wealth advisors recently and with inflation, sorry, and sorry, with, with the US starting to look at printing more money again and you know, increasing the balance sheet risk on assets are back in the equation. And these wealth advisors were talking about how they're going to be increasing the risk exposures to their clients. And they showed us a chart of the different asset sectors that they're going to increase exposure on. An alternative assets was a sector that they were increasing their allocation to. And I asked them, I said, oh great, so obviously you know, you're going to be putting money into crypto. And their answer was, no, we're not, we're not going to be advising any of our clients to get into crypto until we see some of the bigger banks and ETFs get approved. And after that point, we now have a place where we are more comfortable to send them. So this is at a real level happening where high net worth are not being advised to buy crypto because there isn't a safe, easy way to do it. But as soon as the ETF gets approved, this is seriously going to open up trillions and trillions of dollars of advised capital into the space, which is just massive. And when I say space, I mean Bitcoin. And then, and then maybe Ethereum down the line, but this money is going to Bitcoin to begin with.

That's just incredible. And you know, I've seen a lot of reports from the Fed saying next year they're going to have six interest rate drops. And I'm like, okay, interesting. Like, you know, a lot of the housing guys are picking up on this and you know, inflation is not sorted. But if interest rate drops around the corner and you've got the hugest liquid market in the world without access to ETF's capital becomes cheaper. What do you think they're going to buy? They definitely want to get exposure to the space. That is absolutely. That outperforms everything on this planet. It's now more of a risk to not have a very small percent of your investable assets in Bitcoin than to not have it. Like, you know what I mean? Like, it is just, it is so crazy. Like not having Bitcoin is riskier than having a small percentage of Bitcoin.

And this was, this was, this was a comment one of our analysts made recently. There could be serious career risks for not allocating to Bitcoin, resulting in greater demand from traditional asset managers. Like, like you said, Bergs, it's more of a risk not to own this thing now than it is to actually not own it.

And it's crazy. And look, I want to, I want to reiterate this point where people like Ben and I, we're deep in the crypto space, right? Like some of the weird little animal avatars we interact with on. On Twitter. And everyone's like, you know, into, you know, gaming and farming airdrops and the latest coin on Salana and all this really degen stuff, minting these crazy NFTs that are coming out. Honestly, for 99.99% of people, myself included, that is a distraction. I have my strategy, I have my bitcoin ethereum. I'm watching the other things pump and I'm like, hey, that is cool if you own Solana. Amazing. You've done really well. Good on you. Take some profits, rotate into BTC and eth because that time will come. And it is plain as day with just these couple of things. We've talked about how this narrative will play out. It is almost a foregone conclusion. It is that obvious. And if you see this pump in the coming months and you haven't got exposure, you need to do something about that today.

Yeah, yeah, Spot on, bugs. And that leads me into why we think 2024 as well outside the Harvey and the ETS going to be big is because of the favorable macro environment that's starting to shape up in 2024. And that comes down to one the decreasing rates and increased global liquidity. And really that, that idea around why Bitcoin is so important to begin with, around that debt and debasement idea of fair currency. So really one of the biggest callous for Bitcoin in 2024 is a continued macroeconomic instability. So the reason why Bitcoin was in credit in the first place is. Was in response to the 2008 financial crisis where, you know, that newspaper clipping that satoshi actually embedded in the first Bitcoin block was to draw people's attention to the macro environment. And it's kind of crazy to look at these newspaper clippings back in 2008 and see how closely tied it is with where we are right now, you know, 15 years ago. And that was the title of this, the newspaper clipping that was in the first block of Bitcoin, which was chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks. Which is, which is, which is crazy. You know what else is crazy, Burke? Just, you know, even outside of that, above that, this is in the times. This is January 3, 2009. Israel prepares to send tanks and troops into Gaza.

Oh, geez, that is 15 years ago.

Unbelievable.

Just the. We talk about the foresight that Satoshi and potentially his team or their team had and really these are just like we look at it as some kind of genius. And the innovation they did was absolutely genius. But these are old problems, right? And the problems are rich people have a lot of money, governments like to print more money. Currencies get debased, and there's like literally thousands of currencies over time that have gone to zero and have had to repeat and redo. They don't have a fixed supply and they're not open and available to everyone. Those are issues that have existed since the beginning of time. And that is what Bitcoin addresses. And that is why it is still so relevant today and will be even more relevant in the future.

100% burgs. And as people. Sorry, as the US continues to print more money, which they recently spoke about in terms of the Jerome Powell coming out and talking about that, the US is likely near its peak, likely at or near its peak of this tightening cycle, meaning they may start to loosen the monetary policy. Increased liquidity increases demand for risk on assets. That is as money becomes easier to access. Bitcoin has performed extremely well during these periods. Expanding global liquidity. And that plus the bitcoin halving as the bitcoin and central bank balance sheet growing grows is just, you know, a catalyst for a huge storm. And macro analyst Lynn Orden sums it up really great in a tweet she put out, quoting, an influx of demand catalyst significantly impacts Bitcoin's price more than the predetermined supply changes. I believe the increased global liquidity environment, not the Haring, is the most significant catalyst of Bitcoin in 2024. So when you add those things together, the Haring, increased liquidity, ETF impact and the world that's going on right now. Holy mother of dibbly. Hold on to your hats.

Absolutely, bro. The other one is Coinbase, which is really interesting because they have been listed as custodian for the majority of ETFs and they are a listed company as well. So I would imagine there'll be a lot of inflows into Coinbase too, which is really, really interesting. There are so many plays here. And oh, you also have to think, okay, if you purchase an etf, you don't actually own that Bitcoin, right? You own a share in the etf and whatever the price is based on the Bitcoin that they hold, the fund actually holds, and custody of Bitcoin, you can't take bitcoin out of it. You are buying and selling a share. So you need to think about that if you're going to get exposure to ETFs or if you actually want to own that scarce underlying asset. There's positives and negatives to both, but the moral of the story is just get in before everyone else.

Yeah, it's going to make it easier for people that haven't been able to buy, buy it, I believe the etf and really give those assets and that capital. Sorry, give access to the capital that has been able to get into bitcoin, a way to do that. So, yeah, hugely, hugely positive there. We've also got things around the Lightning network developing, continuing to unlock new use cases. We've got, you know, finally some of the bitcoin mining stuff. You know, there was a lot of chatter about the environmental impact. Bitcoin is now moving towards greener solutions with reports that more than 50% of the network is now running on renewable energy sources. Which is a, which is great. So we've got that there.

So look, look mate, the accounting changes. So the FASB accounting changes, companies that goes live in December 24, companies can now report and hold cryptocurrencies on their balance sheet. This is a huge change. So if.

Companies were previously holding this, they would have to account for it in a different way now, especially if they're a listed company that have specific reporting, they can now say, this is on our balance sheet. This is an asset that we hold, which is incredible. That is a big change, very nerdy change, but a big change nonetheless and leads us towards more legitimacy and with.

All the stuff that's been cleared out in 2023, Bergs, the Binance's, the FTX is Celsius, Luna, all that stuff now behind us. I just think we're just shaping up now for have the foundations for just an epic 2024 for Bitcoin.

I absolutely can't wait. It's a shakeout we needed to have. All the big boys have made their plays. They're just waiting for the biggest of the boys to say yes so everyone can get in and mate, it is going to be game on.

So that is it folks. Happy birthday to bitcoin. As the 15th birthday approaches. Yeah, we've certainly got a lot more legitimacy and the adoption is growing slowly but surely we are on the right track and I definitely think next year is going to be a monster for BTC to what next year? We're recording just the end of 2023. 2024 is going to be an absolute monster for bitcoin. So yeah, strap in folks. It's going to be going to be a monster.

Amazing. Can't wait.

Thanks guys. Thanks very much for listening. If you have a friend or family member that you think should listen to this episode to get their head around bitcoin and understand why they need to get on board the train, we'd love for you to share this episode with them. It's the Way We Grow the podcast each and every week. We've been at this now for 18 months and we have no plans of slowing down in 2024. We're super excited to keep bringing you awesome research backed, simple crypto insights to help you win. Thanks so much for listening and we'll see you on the next episode.

Thanks champions.