128. Price Is The Ultimate Crypto Narrative, How To Take Advantage

Price is absolutely the narrative. And if you don't believe that you are fooling yourself, the best story will win. If you look at the different investments you have, the better the story is. When price action happens, all of a sudden that story is true, it's good, it's come to fruition. And if you're in a ship and you've got massive sales, which is your narrative, you're waiting for that wind. That wind is price. When that comes, it'll blow your ship right to the front.

Welcome back to another episode of the Ben and Bergs podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift alongside Ms. Bergs, your favorite MBA and CEO of Collective Shift. Join us as we bring you world class crypto research and strategies to help you dominate this crypto bull market as well as behind the scenes view of us scaling a fully remote subscription research business here in Australia. If you love listening to our podcast or if you like this episode, we'd really love for you to subscribe. It really helps us out and grow the podcast. Today we're talking about why crypto price is the narrative. And when we talk about how to get into the right narratives, how to get in the right tokens. Crypto prices are usually things that drive narratives. Right? It's a pretty, you know, to catch 20, 20, 22, you want to get in the right narratives to drive up the price. But yet the price is the thing that drives the narrative. And we talk about when retail investors are going to come back, when is it going to be interest again, when is crypto going to be back in mainstream media and the narrative comes back. Well the reality is when bitcoin goes up and the narrative comes back is when the price increases. So we want to talk about this because I think people over complicated but yeah, bergs, at the end of the day prices talk, asset values talk. That's what gets people interested.

Exactly. People talk about the horse driving the cart, but they need to understand the horse is always price no matter what is in your cart. Whether you have, you know, you're building some amazing like gaming ecosystem and you've got a brilliant token, you've got a huge community and people have been building on it for two years. No one cares. Like maybe five people care. Right. And you and I know and we've got a huge research team that understands the fundamentals, but no one cares until that price pumps. And the classic example is looking at Solana now and again. Sorry, not throwing shade at Solana. Um, you know, it's an ultimate L1. But looking at that and why are people attracted to it? Like, Solana's been doing a lot of stuff in the background. It's actually, we're bullish on Solana in, in our ship list and it's been doing a lot of work. But as soon as the price pumps, people go across. As soon as people get a fat airdrop, people go across. Everyone's in Solana now. Why? Because they want another airdrop. They want to get a bit of the price action. They are the laggards, not the people that were in there when the fundamentals were good. And it is always price that pushes that narrative forward, Ben, 100%.

And when Solana eventually has a bit of a retracement and Ethereum starts to go this year, and then Ethel, I had to go, and then altcoins on each side to go, the narrative will switch and then everyone will be back over Ethereum again.

Isn't it wild where it's like there's all these people that are leaving. They're like, I'm leaving. Ethereum is trash. Like, look at this roadmap. It is so, so crap. And like the price hasn't even moved. And it's like, well, okay, but everyone's still showing up to work, they're still building, they're still delivering. It's got heaps of like activity, heaps of tvl and it's like, oh, you know, it just shows the market has spoken. I'm like, hey, the market isn't even here. Look at things like bitcoin. It's, it's like, yeah, it's gone up like 10%, right, which is nothing in crypto. And we've got the ETF, which is going to be approved in like five days. This is the 5th of January, recording this and we've got the halving coming up. Like none of those things are even reported in the media. When is the media going to report when bitcoin reaches all time highs again? When it's going up $5,000 a day, when tons of people are making money and then when the share guys that get into bitcoin want to sell you bitcoin, that's when the media starts talking about it. That hasn't even begun yet.

And that's what retail investors chase. It's the green charts is what's going up the most. Oh, it's up 80. Oh, who is I talking to? Like someone I was talking to was talking about how he was buying Kogan shares. Kogan shares is Buying in Covid, it was going up 80, 100% to his mates were telling him to get in. Kogan's down like 80% over the last two years. He's like, when, when do you buy? When to retail investors buy when the price goes up, the exact wrong time to buy.

And you would have thought, why is that price going up? Because it's an online business. Everyone's stuck at home, they're going to be ordering stuff, it makes perfect sense. But don't get in after everyone else has, right? This is why we run our business. And we're like, we don't point to the shiny thing that's absolutely pumping. Well, I know what is there that not many people know about that's actually doing good things and that is executed for a while and will keep you apprised of it. And Ben, I have to talk about one thing. The post rationalization. Like people, people experience this generally in products. Like, let's say you're buying like a new mobile phone. Like you go laptop, go out, you buy it, you spend your few thousand dollars, you come back and then you look on the Internet to see if you made the right decision. Will you justify why you actually bought something?

Justification.

Oh my. All the time that people do this with their investments or if the price goes up, you're like, I knew it, it went up because of this, this, this, this. Like, if you ask me about Ethereum, I can give you 50 reasons why the price is going to go up, but the price hasn't moved. And those people on Twitter says the price moves. See, I told you. Here, here, here, here, here. But on. And people that try to go back and be like that, like, look at Arbitrum, the price absolutely pumped. I don't know why. Like, I'm an arbitrary holder. I know it's an amazing ecosystem. I'm right across what they're building and what they've done. I don't know why the price has gone from like A$10 to A$90 in the last like week. I don't know why people are buying. I'm sure there's 50,000 different reasons why that has occurred. I knew fundamentally it was a great thing and they're constantly delivering in the community's great. But that price going up, I do not know why. And even people are posting on Twitter. But then, Ben, you get these thread boys that like Arbitrum's got up for these reasons. Half of those reasons, like six months old, three months old, one hasn't even been done yet. It is just price is absolutely the narrative. And if you don't believe that you are fooling yourself.

That's like ta, right? You know, this chart, this line has crossed this path and it's, you know, it's crossed the, you know, the six month RSI moving average and that's why we're going up. And then it doesn't. And then it's like, oh, that, you know, that was the other alternative because if this happened, well then that happens.

Like, oh, gosh, come on, this is absolutely right. And it's like, you know, with traders where they talk both ways and then be like, oh, I wonder why this happened. This is exactly why. But with a trader you only need to be right like what, 55% of the time in your trades and you'll be a profitable trader. Like you're not going to get it right all the time. Right. And Matt, you have to understand like this is the beginning of a bull market. And like you say, Ben, it's like all bets are off in a bull market because when something starts pumping, people will chase that to no end. It doesn't take much for a token to go up because these things are very liquid and difficult to get. And then when money inflows start coming, that really accelerates. Then you start to see news and people posting about it. Then everyone else starts to buy and it really, really accelerates.

Yeah. So how can we, you know, use this information to help us as investors? Well, you know, we try and look at, at, at sectors that may have price increases, that may have narratives, you know, what are the things that are attractive. And for me it's looking at things that are, that are newer, like these tokens that have been around for years and years and years that are down 80, 90% that haven't really done any marketing, haven't really made any partnerships, hasn't really done anything in the product. These things are all but dead right. They're not getting price increases, they're not getting any narrative. We've got to be looking at the, you know, the projects that are really building, that are really developing, that are getting more user adoption. Developers are growing on chain activities are growing like sectors like Defi, that's growing sectors like, you know, gaming that's growing. Like these sectors are going to get price increases because there's money is going to attract into those sectors that's going to drive narrative. And the, and the tokens that you've been holding for a long time hoping that they're going to go up, that no one's heard about in four years probably isn't going to get that narrative mate.

And the world is based on stories. You ever read the book Sapiens? That is pretty much the difference, the storytelling ability. If you went out to raise money, the best story will win. No matter what you tell these people, right? They need to believe in you and your vision and what you're doing. And if you look at the different investments you have, the better the story is and more, you know, if they're actually executing and it's a good story. When price action happens, all of a sudden that story is true, it's good, it's come to fruition, and it's an amazing thing. And the best story, that best narrative will win. And if you're in a ship and you've got massive sails, which is your narrative, you're waiting for that wind. That wind is price. When that comes, it'll blow your ship right to the front. So you need to be looking for those sectors and those tokens within those sectors that have been executing that have a really good narrative that actually have their place in the world. And Ben, previously, it was the metaverse, right, where those tokens absolutely pumped everyone, made a lot of money, but they didn't really have product market fit and it didn't really belong in the world. So they had the best narrative, they had the price action. Everyone's going to be in the metaverse, and it never really happened because it was removed from reality. People didn't care about that removed from reality part. It was more about what story. Can you tell me, I only have five minutes and I'm going to spend my money and the best story will get my money.

And that recognizing that when narrative takes over and it and it overvalues the price of the asset, that's when you get a sell opportunity. And so that's the other side of the equation. If you're on that boat, if you're on that ship, if you're on that asset, that sector, you've been lucky enough to catch it, narrative takes off, and the narrative now outpaces the value. You need to recognize that and take that opportunity to sell. And that's exactly how we made a lot of money in the metaverse era, was when we're looking at these projects at 400, 500, $600 million valuations, there were a pilot turd like the product was crap, couldn't use it. Pixelated nonsense like, how on earth is this thing valued this much? It's not. It shouldn't be. I Remember, get out.

You called me up and there was one particular one that was valued at 2 billion. And I'm like, how is something that was made, like, a few months ago, and I went onto their website and used their metaverse and the uni students I was working with built better stuff than that. And I'm like, how can this have the token be worth 2 billion versus worth of value accrual? My. These two things are disconnected. And that is a signal to be like, right, I need to start selling this down because it's removed from reality. You can still have a little bit there and write it, but take those profits. Don't be the person that believes that narrative without going a bit deep and seeing what's actually there.

Yeah. Just because the price is detached from reality doesn't mean you need to be. That's the way you can get advantage of that.

I love that. Oh, that is so good. And that's. That is exactly right. Like, and we get. We get fooled, Ben, because in a crypto market, you know, rising tide floats all ships and everything goes up. You're making money hand over fist. You're making a thousand dollars today, thousand dollars tomorrow, thousand dollars a day after. You're ready to give your boss the finger and say, see you later. But you have to think, like, in this warp, distorted reality and the people that are talking about on Twitter and everywhere else, when is the music going to stop? First of all, you probably don't know. But the things that you're invested in, are they worth what that number actually is?

Yeah. And if it's not on the downside, you've got a buying opportunity, and on the upside, you've got a sell opportunity. And if you can be aware of that and be logical and not emotional during those periods of times, that's where you can make real money.

Yeah, absolutely. And we see this in technological advancements. Everywhere you look at, man, mobile phones, how long did they take for adoption? Like, people had Those in the 80s, man. And even in the 90s, a lot of people didn't have it. It was pretty much like early 2000s, a smartphone era, that people really adopted it. Look at, like the Internet, that was around since, like, what, 60s, 70s? Like people. In the 90s, people didn't even have dial up. It took people a long time to get onto broadband. It takes people a long time to adopt technologies for them to become mature, be used every day, and be a viable thing in a market. And this is where bull markets happen, because the hype outpaces the reality. And that hype is driven by price and it's driven by sentiment. And if you realize that it is a huge opportunity for you to take.

Profit, because that is the opportunity. Price and value are two separate things. You know, the value of the asset and the price trade at different times. You know, in bear markets it's there's a reason why we accumulate because the price has gone below the value and any bull markets price goes above the value and that creates a sell opportunity. So take advantage of that, have your plan and win.

Absolutely, mate. That is perfect. That's a good place to end the pod.

Let's wrap it up there, guys. Thank you so much for listening. We hopefully that helped. If that helped Eva in a minuscule you're going to get a 1% gain on our tips and tricks. We'd love for you to subscribe to the podcast. Head over to the subscribe button on YouTube or if you're on podcasting apps, Spotify, Apple, Android, whatever you're on, please subscribe. It really helps us grow the podcast so we can keep coming to you each and every week and we'll see you on the next episode.

Thanks. JP's.