139. The Reality of Where We Are In Crypto Right Now

The only narrative that's really going on for normies is bitcoin. The combined view count of these channels is actually lower than where we were in the 2022 bear market where Bitcoin was 18, $19,000. We're now at $50,000 and the sentiment is seemingly lower than then for retail investors. Welcome back to another episode of the Ben and Bergs Podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of collective shift, alongside Ms. Burgs, your favorite NBA and CEO of Collective Shift. Join us as we bring you world class crypto research and strategies to help you dominate this crypto bull market as well as behind the scenes view of us scaling a fully remote subscription research business in Australia. Now, today we're talking about the reality of where we are in crypto right now. Because we're in a super fascinating time of the market where the reality is, if you look outside of Twitter or our little crypto bubble, no one cares about crypto burks. But the price of crypto, specifically bitcoin, continues to climb. We've got record numbers of inflows coming in from institutions. The ETFs are pumping hundreds of millions of dollars in each day. In fact, right now, on average, the time of recording about half a billion dollars per day is being bought through the ETFs. But retail investors are nowhere to be seen. And we can see this through some of the data we're going to go through today. But we haven't seen this before, man. Like in terms of super high upwards pressure on the price with the amount of institutional inflows, but yet no or very little retail interest.

Isn't it crazy where Bitcoin's at 52,000, it's near all time highs of 65, 66,000 and there's no one reporting on it at all. None of my mates have called me, none of them asked me. They did like four or five months ago when they were thinking about it, but now things are picking up. It's not in the news, it's not even on their radar. They have no idea what is happening behind the scenes and there is no interest from anyone. And really I think about this a lot. And the reason we're interested is obviously because we like crypto, we work in crypto, but we're on Twitter a lot and that's where all of the conversations are happening every single day. People are talking about what's happening, what someone has built some kind of, you know, innovation, the next airdrop, whatever it is. And it is just this huge area and hive of activity that the average person doesn't participate in.

Yeah. And actually, I think the average person deflects it. Like, I don't know about you, Ben, but I've seen more and more haters on my social media over the last couple of weeks. Like, people that are having crack at me for whatever reason, but underlying, like, I actually just genuinely think they just don't like crypto and they're looking for scapegoats to just target because they don't like what's happening and they just don't want to talk about it.

Yeah. Some people may have felt they missed out. You personally, they're probably just having a crack at you, mate. Let's be honest, you know, But I know what you mean. Like, you post anything about crypto and they're like, oh, bitcoin, that's crap. People want to really bring it down. I'm seeing a lot of that activity. I'm not seeing the support side of things, whether, like, hey, this is awesome. This is actually happening. And I think it's also very difficult for people to engage with things like Twitter, where if you don't know the language, you don't know who people are, their cred, what they've done in the past. You haven't been in for a few cycles. You can't even begin to engage and understand what these people are talking about. It's like you going to, like, some crazy physics data science conference and just jumping in, you're like, what are these guys on about?

So, tell you a story. We've had a new couple that have just become collective SHIFT members. Awesome couple. They're retired. And they basically came to me the other day and said, ben, you know, we've got.

You know, a fair chunk of money, 180k to put into bitcoin, but we have no idea what we're doing. Like, we've heard about it, but we just don't know where to look, where to point, what exchange to sign up. I said, okay, great. Like, you know, and it was kind of the first time I've seen someone so fresh with such amount of money wanting to get into crypto. And I asked him, like. Like, if you. If you're so convicted into crypto or bitcoin specifically, but you don't know what you're doing, like, where have you heard this information from?

Like.

Like, what's the motivation behind it? And for them, it was more around the opportunity that they. They felt they could get through bitcoin. Like, and they started to do their own research. It was very driven, but it was, it all came from bitcoin. There was, there was no appetite for altcoins. And that's great. They're retired. They're looking for like a lower risk, you know, investment. But also they read out four or five other platforms that they were looking into that made were all scams, every single one of them, you know, and they, and they felt that there was a little bit too good to be true. You know, X percent returns per day, AI driven, you know, invest this, we give you that back. New coins, lockup periods. I said, guys, anything that says that's got AI in it with a percentage return per day. 100% a scam.

Ben, when you were talking, I could smell it, mate. It was wafting across the bs, mate. You could smell it. Absolutely.

You know, the point is, man, like there, the narratives right now, the reality is there is none. Right? The only narrative that's really going on for normies is bitcoin, in my opinion. You know, we've had in the past things that have spurred bull markets like ICOs, the NFT market. You know, we've had some AI, a little bit of gaming, but like we've said, there's some, there's some innovations, but it's nerdy. Tell us a story about the, the, the guys that wanted to get involved in Solana or, or the Deepin narrative.

Oh, my God. So let's, let's look at this, right, what's. Previously, in previous market cycles, you had things like color coins, you had ICOs, you had NFTs, you had a metaverse trend, you had a gaming trend. There are all these kind of innovations where people like, oh, this is going to be the next thing. It's going to be amazing. Let's get in. It's the really shiny thing. What do we have now? We've got two newish narratives that haven't really played out before. One of them is Deepin and the other one is like Solana airdrops. That's actually happening. Let's look at those two. You go to Deepin, it's like, okay, what is it? Decentralized physical infrastructure network. Bang. You've lost me. What does it actually mean? Oh, well, you can get all these devices, you connect them together, you, you rent them out, you create a mesh network, whatever it is, you're renting time on compute and you can do cool things with it. Great. How do I get into it? Oh, well, it's kind of on this chain and they kind of don't have a token and it kind of doesn't work yet. And IOTA tried to do this like eight years ago and it's just a whole bunch of nonsense. Is that really going to bring people into the space? No. And then let's look at Solana airdrops. Solana airdrops are great. What do you have to do? You have to understand Solana. You have to get a new type of wallet. You got to figure it all out and then you have to get in there, you have to farm and it's just all too much. And the people that are being rewarded are the ones that were participating during the bear market two years ago, a year ago. So there's no real shiny amazing thing to bring people in. The thing we've got at the moment is fundamentals from things that are performing really well like bitcoin and Ethereum and a few altcoins. But that's not exciting enough for the general public. They want that rocket ship, they want that ico. I wasn't able to invest in VC like in companies because I'm not rich enough. But now I can get into ICOs and I can make it big. What is that next thing? That is what we're waiting for for retail trends. The thing I think that's going to kick it off is bitcoin all time high and the media will start reporting on it, then people will start to trickle into the space.

I like that Burgs. And there's a chart we've been looking at here which is super interesting, which is looking at the amount of combined crypto YouTube views, which is a really interesting sentiment metric. You can pick up on how many in retail investors in the market. And what we're looking at here is a combined view count of channels like you know, Ben Cohen, Bitboy, Coin Bureau, Altcoin Daily, et cetera, et cetera. And the combined view count of these channels is actually lower than where we were in the 2022 bear market. Now that was where Bitcoin was 18, $19,000. We're now at $50,000. And the sentiment is seemingly lower than then for retail investors, which is crazy to think, isn't it?

Just look, so the top line is bitcoin there and if you look at like cut around, you know, early to mid 21, even a little bit after bitcoin price is quite high and the views are just off the charts, right? And now it's like still in bear time. Market views, it's under or a third of what they were at that peak and we've nearly hit the bitcoin peak, which is so, so crazy to think. And honestly, everyone listening out there, this is the, this is the time, right? Like, this is how we know we're still early in this space. It's such, like a trope that people say that, but it is so realistic. Not one of my friends has called me about bitcoin. My parents haven't asked me about. My Uber driver's not talking about it. The restaurants aren't talking about it. I haven't seen crazy ads on the TV of new exchanges and new coins and new sports stars promoting them. So we really need to appreciate where we are in this market cycle.

And what's even more interesting, burgs is you look at this data like, let's go back to the 2021 bull market, right? Or the half, half pump, whatever you.

Want to call it.

Bitcoin ran up about six to 12 months ahead of retail investors starting to get into the market, right? So if you look at the bitcoin price late, late 2020 into early 2021, Bitcoin was rallying. But it wasn't until mid to late 2021 that YouTube views started to pick up. So basically what we're saying here is that retail lags the market by about six to 12 months, right? Meaning that bitcoin's running up now. That is lining perfectly with our data of the bitcoin halving event being the thing that triggers a bull market, meaning retail investors arrive six to 12 months from now. That pushes us honestly into goodness knows how high.

Isn't it interesting? It could be like.

They say it's like the tail wagging the dog kind of thing, where there's innovation happening, heaps going on. And think about this. We know in phase one, bitcoin just appreciates, right? It just goes nuts. That's what brings people into the space. And then they look for the shiny thing. Which last time, in the kind of disappointing bull market of 21, that was NFTs, like, people were getting amongst it. They were. Everyone had heaps of JPEGs, everyone was making money. It was Bored Ape Yacht Club. It was ether rocks that were flipped for like 20 mil. Crazy stuff like that. That's what we're saying. It was Gary Vee. It was all these NFT launches. It was VCon. Like everyone was about that life. And that's when retail comes in and you've got this huge, huge amount of people that want to go towards the shiny thing. The shiny things, I think, are There today, they just don't have that huge rush of people.

Yeah. And, and I think those incentives for people coming into the market a little bit differently, like the couple I spoke to the other night, they're looking to diversify their investments and get some exposure to bitcoin. It's not, he's 100k, let's make a million dollars tomorrow. What's the latest meme coin? You know, it's more sophisticated. The market's maturing. We're getting a little bit like closer to where we're going to be in the next few years.

I think this episode has now clarified my thoughts where I think the shiny things are there, but they're not enough to bring people in by themselves. You need to have that front running. Bitcoin, the thing has been there for a while that's now appreciating. Okay, I've thought about this for a few years. I need to get in. You go in and then you start to, you get this, you know, critical mass of people and then they push into certain narratives which really pumps the price. And like we said in that episode a few episodes back, the price is the narrative.

100% bergs. And this is the chart here that, you know, we speak about phase two of a bull market. So historically, again, phase one of a bull market is when bitcoin grows in bitcoin dominance, you get a lot of that money flowing into bitcoin. And then as we flip into phase two, that's when altcoins really start to run. So back in 2017 and back in 2021, we had the altcoin market share really take quite a leap heading to, you know, sort of the 50, 60% range of the total market in altcoins. That's when we really get that explosive growth of altcoins when retailer market comes. So you overlay the sentiment data, you overlay the on chain data and then you can see where the market moves. We believe we're probably 60 or 70% of the way through phase one. So within a few months, we believe retail investors will start to come back. If we break like you said, folks, if we break through that bitcoin all time high, that could be the thing that triggers alongside the bitcoin halving to bring people back. And then we could see a really crazy altcoin season.

Absolutely. And one thing I actually did hear recently from someone that needed some help that has been in here. He's like, I want to get in early. What exchange can I buy on? And that just stuck in My mind where I'm like, mate, if you're buying on an exchange, you're not early and you think about it, to get in, you'll need to use, you need to use a dex or you need to get a drop or you'll need to get coins somehow right before everyone else. Because exchanges are that big distribution point. They create liquidity and then people can access it easily. And what does retail do as soon as they come in? Same thing we did, Ben. You load up an exchange, you load up, you know, your coin spot or whatever it is, you get in there and you start buying coins. You see, you check it 50 times a day, they start to go up. You may sell a few, you may jump into other ones. You think you're a genius, but that's where all the liquidity comes from. So if you want to get in early and you want to, you know, preempt alt season, get those coins that are either down in the dumps, that have been around for a while, that have good fundamentals or ones that are difficult to get, put in that effort and get it before everyone else in those distribution points for retail customers.

Spot on, burgs. And we speak about that a lot on the podcast around those different trends, the altcoins we're looking at as well. You know, I, I actually made six new investments recently. Burgs, which will be making up, you know, the podcast will be coming out soon on that. We're sharing with members tonight. Those investments and going through those. Now's the time to get positioned because I think, like we said before the pod, I think it's a great opportunity to build up your altcoin exposure to ultimately rotate back into bitcoin and build your bitcoin and E stack for the long term.

Ben and I had a conversation before this pod off air and I was like, lad, here's my portfolio and mate, I need a few more alts. So Ben and I are talking about it and I'm going to buy two more altcoins to add to my portfolio. I have some hangover altcoins and some from airdrops and some NFTs, but I want to add two more that have a high chance of a good return. And I may even add a couple of moonshots as well, because now's the time to be positioned to get something more than, you know, the 3-5x you're going to get from, you know, ethereum or bitcoin.

And I, and I didn't, I didn't, didn't do A dirty team. I. I gave him. I gave him the beans. I gave him what I actually thought. I did think about throwing in a couple of, you know, maybe a couple of rugs, a couple of. Couple of scammy red flags, but I thought, ah, no, I might. Oh, I'll do him. I'll do it good this time.

I still don't trust you. I'm checking with Matt after the show.

I'll get the real King's advice. But thank you. No, like, thank you for setting me straight on that as well. Because I went through my sales strategy and what my goals were and you're like, man, you're missing out on this. Like, you're going to miss out on a decent return. You don't have to put much money in and the opportunity is there. Set your portfolio up slightly differently, get ready to sell those altcoins, rotate them into Bitcoin and Ethereum, ride that up as well, and then sell some of that stack.

It's crazy, man. You know, I get so many insights. I speak to so many people now, man. I'm booked out for the next three weeks for strategy call people.

Like, so we got this strategy call channel in Slack in our business and like, I went away for a day to a training day. I come back, it's like, like all these calls. I'm like, mate, you're like, yeah, I've got like, however many calls to the end of the month. I'm like, you're literally going to be on the phone 24 7, mate.

Yeah, yeah, literally. I've had to open up Saturdays. It's. It's bananas, but it's great. I love helping people and so many people just have the same common mistakes they're listening to, you know, same people online and it's really just basic things you can fix up to really optimize and make as much money as hopefully possible in this upcoming bull market.

Yeah. And even, like, when I went. So I went to a training day for entrepreneurs organization and I talked to a guy there and he's like, oh, you work in crypto. And he's got a portfolio, he's got a small bit of bitcoin, but he's got like 100k in altcoins. I'm like, all right, how many altcoins you got? He's like, 40. And I'm like, whoa. And I'm like, what are your goals? And it turned out he needed like a 7x to achieve his goals. I'm like, mate, you need to get on the phone with Ben, sort that out. I'm like, how do you feel managing all those coins? How do you decide what you're doing? Like, how are you actually going to exit? Where's the liquidity going to be? And he found it really challenging. I'm like, mate, jump on with Ben. He'll sort you out. These are the common questions that we get. We'll make it simpler, make your life easier in a way that you can still try to achieve your goals.

Yeah, yeah, I love doing it. So I'm going to try and open up a few more spots. There might be some spots in early March you can grab. But yeah, if you need any help and you'd like to see how we can create a strategy to help you in this upcoming cycle and I can show you, you know, our platform and some of this research and you're only really getting a glimpse that we share on the pod. We try and give you as much as we can, but ultimately we. We look after our. Our members. So, yeah, feel free to jump in the description. There's a Forward/CollectorshiftIO strategy. My calendar's in there. I'm doing them at the moment. So if you want to jump in and jump on a call, have it help. But we'll probably leave it there. Burgs. Brilliant. On the retail, I say absolutely, mate.

That's when we know it's on.

Thanks so much, guys. Thanks for listening as always. You can click the link below if you want to book a call with us and. And really dominate this bull market. Otherwise, we'll see you on the next episode.

Thanks, champions.