182. You Won’t Sell The Top In This Crypto Bull Market. Here’s Why And How To Actually Profit.

While things are euphoric, you're going right to the top. Bitcoin's going up $1,000 a day. Everyone's talking about it. They're all going to quit their jobs. We're all going to make it.

That's nuts. You need to take risk off, take some profits, live a happy life.

Yes. And just remember that money is just spending tokens. You need to convert that stuff into things or experiences that you want.

Last bitcoin cycle, the price only spent three days above 65,000. It only lasted three days. And if you miss it, you suck.

Yeah, definitely catch that one.

Welcome back to another episode of the Bennebergs podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift. Alongside me as Bergs, your favorite NBA and CEO of plenty of Shift. Join us as we bring you world class crypto research and strategies to help you dominate this cryptocurrency market as well as behind the scenes view by scaling a fully remote subscription research business here in Australia. If you like the episode, we'd love for you to share it around with a friend or family member. It's how we grow the podcast each and every week. And today we're giving her the beans. Ladies and gentlemen, we are sharing with you how and what selling the top of the market actually looks like is. Everyone wants to do a burgs, everyone wants to sell the top. But is it actually achievable? We're going to look at some of the research we've done on previous market cycles to showcase you how realistic this actually is to help you nail the top.

Of course they are, Ben. Everyone's the best trader. They get in at the absolute bottom, they sell the absolute top and they wait until the absolute bottom again to get back in. And they make screwings of dollars, mate.

Correct. And if you 1% off the top or the bottom, you suck.

Yeah, you're nothing. You're useless. You shouldn't even be an investor.

Why are you even trying? Go home.

So everyone calculates right how much money they'll make when they sell at the top. When the price goes to XYZ price, I'll have this much money. Wow. Exciting. The life's going to be great. But do we actually know how to sell the top? And remember how the markets create their price. It is created by the last person who buys on or sells at that exact moment. One buyer or one seller. That is all that is required to market price.

And let's just illustrate that. Let's say I create Ben Coin and Ben buys it from me. I create 10,000 coins. I sell one to Ben for a dollar. The market price has gone from 0 to $1. Market cap is now $10,000. If it's 10,000 coins and there's only one, Ben then sells it.

If I then buy another one or Ben buys one for $1,000, just one coin, the market price is now $1,000. The market cap is now $10 million.

Or $100 million. Public math don't do it, but this is how it works. And it's just those few little people buying that is the current price, the current spot price of whatever you are trading.

100. So the reality is trying to be the exact one person to be the top is very, very unlikely. Actually it's close to impossible. So what's actually achievable? Well, if we look at bitcoin as an example, looking at the 2021 top of 69,000, you're probably thinking, well, if we get within the top 5% at the top 65k or above, amazing. We've done well. Again, that is very, very difficult. Last bitcoin cycle, the price only spent three days above 65,000. Between 65 and 69,000. It only lasted three days. You literally had three days in four years, bergs to nail within 5% of.

The top three days in over like 1200 and something days.

Amazing. And if you miss it, you suck.

Yeah, brilliant. You definitely cash that one.

What about 10%? Let's look at 10%. So a price top of 62,000. Right. This only closed 16 days before the top of the cycle. Again, 16 days in four years. Do we think we're going to get there? Right. It's becoming a little bit easier, but again very, very difficult. What about 15% at 58,000 there was only just over a month, 33 days between the price closes 58,000 and the top of 69,000. Now we're probably getting somewhere towards more where we can realistically achieve something. If you are within the top 15% of the top, you have done amazingly well of a cycle that is over 1400 days long. So four years one would be your leap year. You literally have one month bergs to sell in 15% of the top for bitcoin.

That is just incredible. And people don't like okay this, this is the hardcore math of what the time you actually have and think about. You have to know something. You have to sell and think about all the emotion that's happening. While things are euphoric, you're Going right to the top. Bitcoin's going up $1,000 a day. Everyone's talking about it. It's all people doing. They're all going to quit their jobs. We're all going to make it. We're all in discourse going, oh, look how much cash we've made. You're calculating your net worth every five seconds. Do you really think you're going to be that person that's going to be like, oh, I'm definitely going to sell here. And you, you're emotionally ready and have a plan to sell in those 16 or whatever days it was.

And that's if you lump sums out burgers and which is not what we recommend. Right. This is why we recommend dollar cost averaging out. Because if you miss those 33 days, well then now it's down only next year.

That's it. And why do we have this all or nothing mentality? It drives me spare. This is like everything. Like if you get have a gym program and you're doing nothing now, if you make it four out of your five sessions, that's amazing. It's four more sessions you would have done than last week. And you're only 80% of the way there. You're not doing 100% of your sessions, but your life is going to change dramatically. And it's the same thing we're seeing here. You're not going to get the absolute bottom. You're not going to get the top unless you dollar cost averaging, you know, every single day. But you want that chunk in the middle. You want to get a reasonable chunk of profit profits. You're not going to sell at the absolute bottom. You're going sell the absolute top. But you're going to average in and you're going to average out and it'll give you the best overall chance of success. And averaging in and averaging out is like you don't just do one action, you do many actions. And those many actions give you the chance of getting it right more than getting it wrong because they average out.

Yeah, absolutely bang on. And this is all great in hindsight that we know this data, but like you said, when you're in it, everyone's buying, everyone's euphoric, it's never going to go down. You're making all this money like you would. You, you feel like an idiot if you're going to sell. That's the reality of it.

Bull markets are so hard. You remember 21, we're all in discords. We've got these PFP avatars. We're talking this hokey ass language. People are releasing a million tokens like everyone wants a bored ape and weird shit like that. Like we look at that now, all of those discords are dead. People aren't quitting their jobs. They've all gone back to their jobs or pivoted to AI. That is what euphoria feels like. And thinking that you're mentally prepared and able to sell, when that happens, man, you have to do a lot of preparation, a lot of work.

Yeah, spot on, spot on. And that's the same across all markets. So if we look at Ethereum, ethereum topped at 4800.

Again, 5% within top 5% you had five days to nail it. Top 10% you had 20 days. And top 15% you had 39 days. It's pretty on average you've got about a month in four years to nail within the top 15%. Same with Salana. Solana was actually harder. You only had three days in the top 5%. 10% you had 10 days. And the top 15% you only had 15 days when Salana hit $260.

That is crazy. So 15% from the top is just over a month. That's one out of 48 months. That's roughly just over 2% which is absolutely crazy. Like you would have to be glued to your computer and dialed in and have so much luck to actually pick that. Whereas if you're on the way up and it's like 20 up, 30, 40, 50 and you're averaging out, you're going to hit that, you're going to exceed it, it's going to be, it's honestly the way to do it.

Yeah, I agree, I agree. Because the reality is Berg, selling the top is an absolute myth. It is so difficult if you sell within 15%. You know, historically it's saying you are done absolutely amazing. And you know, if your expectations are that you're going to sell the absolute top, I think you need to just adjust that accordingly. Have that dollar cost averaging out strategy. If you think Bitcoin can hit 200,000 this cycle, maybe start selling your targets around that 160, 170 mark and be happy to take profits.

And that's the thing. You think it's up only because things are so crazy and you don't know when the music is going to stop. And 15% from the top, you have one month out of 48 months. Are you going to be in the top 2%?

No.

And this is the thing like, sorry, there's a 2% chance you will get it. It's not 2% of people actually get it. A lot less get it because it's only a couple of trades that happen within that band, a certain amount of.

Trades and that's where ultimately some of the biggest buyers are coming into. Right. Because you're retail piling in your massive liquidity like it's absolute chaos. So you know, again, understand this. Adjust your price target so we start to scale out on the way up. What we've been talking about and teaching all of you for, for a long time. Stack your chips, stack your profits, keep some equity in the market to keep some exposures, things go up. But again, trying to time the market as a all in and all out is just super difficult and can't be done by most.

Exactly. Right. And I'll tell the story I always tell. We had a buddy of ours and he wanted to buy a house and he put some money into the market and bought a coin. Absolutely pumped through the roof. He wanted to sell at 2 million. Just completely out. He was all in. And it got to about, I think it was like 161 7, 1.7 million from about, I can't remember was 10 or 50k that he put in very, very good returns. Right. And then just tanked all the way back down and now it's worth less than 10k. He wasn't selling on the way up. Even if he pulled out like let's say a million bucks, he's a million dollars. Closest to that $2 million home. You've got half your house paid off. It is not an all or nothing decision is taking profits along the way, leaving some money in the market because you're not sure what is going to happen. None of us know for sure. And then also if it's available to you, having some money on the sidelines to deploy if things get really crazy.

And you see an opportunity that's nuts. You need to take risk off. You're not, you know, no one's giving you a gold medal for picking the top and not selling anything on the way out. Take some profits, live a happy life. Yes.

And just remember that money is just spending tokens. That's all it is. Like having more money really does you no good after a certain level of security. Like if you got six or 12 months in the bank. Right. It's just more stuff. You need to convert that stuff into things or experiences that you want. Write down those goals, understand what they are, how important they are to you. And achieving those goals is more important than, than getting another 10 or 20% in Bitcoin and stacking those spending tokens.

For no good reason, yeah, spot on. And if you need help with the research and the data to help you build that strategy, again, that's what we're here to do, folks. We've got so many amazing analysts. You can get access to our research platform where we put out great quality posts when the right time to sell is how to build a strategy. We've got our pro membership is great, it's very affordable, it's easy to get in, build up your dashboard, build your strategy, get into the community, join our live calls. We've got one tonight that we're hosting with the analysts. So you can join on, you can talk to the team, we give you the insights, what's going on and we're there to help you as independent analysts, you know by your side and it's a bit of, it's a no brainer if you got a decent amount of crypto, in my opinion.

100% mate.

Thank you so much, folks. Hopefully that gives you a little bit more insight as to what selling the top actually looks like. Set those clear expectations and try and understand that it is easier said than done to pick the top. So if you like this episode, we'd love for you to share it around with a friend or family member. It's how we grow the podcast and we'll see you on the next episode.

Thanks, champions.