2025 Is The Biggest Year In Crypto

Ben Simpson (Collective Shift) presents a 10-point forecast arguing 2025 will be a pivotal year in crypto. Key claims: institutional adoption (e.g., BlackRock recommending 2% Bitcoin allocations; MicroStrategy accumulating Bitcoin and joining NASDAQ 100) will drive demand; Solana and other next-gen layer-1s (Sui, Monad, Story Protocol, Hyper Liquid) will gain developer adoption and usage despite token unlock risks (Solana $2.63B unlocking Mar 1); a wave of new token launches and a friendlier US regulatory environment could accelerate growth; a proposed U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (buying ~1M BTC / 5% supply over 20 years) could massively boost prices (Ben estimates ~30% chance); banks entering custody and AI+crypto narratives are additional tailwinds; Ethereum is expected to rebound; macro factors (falling rates, expanding money supply) could further propel crypto in 2025.
Questions this video answers
Added over 2,000 developers for an 83% year-over-year growth.
$2.63 billion worth of Solana.
2% exposure/recommendation to Bitcoin for clients.
Accumulated ~2% so far; plans to buy up to 4% of supply over coming years.
Buy 5% of supply over 20 years (about 1 million BTC); speaker estimated ~30% chance of passing.
Chapters
2025 is shaping up to be the biggest year in crypto. With such an explosive growth in 2024, 2025 is setting up to have some unprecedented new trends and existing trends that you need to be aware of and get allocation to to really crush the remainder of this bull market. In this video I'm going to share with you our 10 research backed insights and trends that the team and I, Collective Shift have put together so you can get ahead of the curb and get amongst these narratives before they arrive. Because that is the key to success in crypto and is let the narratives come to you. Don't go chasing the narratives. That's what we do full time here at Collective Shift. I've got over a team of 12 people now that are looking at crypto full time. We work with over a thousand active paying clients to help them get ahead of the market. I'm going to share with you some of those insights here today. So these are the top 10 trends that you need to be aware of. Number one is BlackRock getting 2% exposure to Bitcoin. This is absolutely bananas. To hit $100,000 Bitcoin in 2024 and now in 2025, BlackRock really taking institutional adoption to a whole new level. This is the biggest in terms of adoption, but also helping their clients get exposure to bitcoin. A lot of their older capital, a lot of their wealth inside their own ecosystem, a lot of their clients starting to buy Bitcoin is going to be absolutely massive. This is going to bring so much additional buyer pressure to Bitcoin that I think a lot of people are misunderstanding the supply and demand economics of why bitcoin will continue to go up and in my opinion, head into the hundreds of thousands in the years to come. BlackRock is such a big thing to recommend 2% allocation of their clients in bitcoin is massive. They have thousands and thousands and thousands of clients and have asset managers really recommend to get involved in the asset class is big because you need those professional individuals and those people that get advice to start advising their clients on bitcoin because that's where you get the really big capital and wealth, right? So us in crypto, we understand bitcoin, we get it, we know it, that doesn't matter. We're talking about people that do not understand Bitcoin, that rely on money managers and asset managers to allocate their capital. That is what really drives real estate. Really, really big growth. Off the back of that, having MicroStrategy also join the NASDAQ 100. This is only the start in my opinion. And for those who don't know microstrategy is accumulated already 2% of the Bitcoin supply for them to head in the NASDAQ 100. This, you know, really gives even more exposure, especially for people buying ETFs. Micro strategy starts to come in there and additional capital will start to get exposure to Bitcoin. And their plans is to buy up to 4% of the Bitcoin supply over the coming years, which is absolutely massive bananas. And every dollar spent on that MSTR ticker, the microstrategy ticker gets exposure to Bitcoin as they grow. So to get in that NASDAQ 100 is absolutely massive for Bitcoin. Number two is Solana. I do believe this is going to continue to be a massive trend in 2025. Solana has had a great run. We've had exposure for a long, long time and I continue to be bullish on the Solana ecosystem. After it was all written off and dead at the FTX collapse in 2022, Solana came roaring back and hit all time highs in 2024. And I do believe it's going to continue rocketing on. In December, Solana had the fastest growing ecosystem for developers, adding over 2000 developers for an 83% year over year growth. Developer activity is one of the biggest metrics and understanding of how much growth in the ecosystem there is. The more developers tends to be, the more I guess fundamentally strong or sound a project can be. And Solana continues to grow in that space and it's a really big deal because it just helps us understand the health of the chain, the roadmap, the product development, the additional builders on top of it. This is why Ethereum's been so good for so long and why I think Solana will continue to grow in 2025 as more applications and Dapps are built on top of the network. I do believe this to continue to grow. Pump fun has obviously been massive for Solana in 2024 with the growth of meme coins getting a lot of attraction and volume. I do believe Solana will continue to be known as that really fast, you know, easy, great UI experience for assets to jump on board with. I do believe other layer ones are going to be coming up and going to be part of the ecosystem as well, which I'll talk about. That's another trend which I'll talk about in a second. But I do believe Solana is going to continue to lead the way and to see those new developers As I mentioned, you know, continue to grow against Ethereum and any other next gen layer ones has been really, really massive as well. We've got so many other upgrades that have happened and have coming up. Like the Fire Dance upgrade has been massive for Solana. Creating that second client for Solana is really, really important for the network resilience. This is one of the biggest problems that Solana had. When the chain kept going down, it couldn't stay up to date with what was going on with the ecosystem. So to have that finance upgrade really solidifies the software that's running on Solana to be less buggy. The software becomes easier for developers to use and that gives more confidence for builders. DAPPS projects built on top of Solana because the last thing you want is to build on a chain that keeps going down. And because of this new stronger network software, the second client will continue to stay up as the Fire Dancer upgrade continues to push on. And that was again back to my point before this was one of the biggest I gu criticisms of Solana in the early days was just how many times that the blockchain will go down. So super, super bullish on that. And if you have a look at the Solana incident history here, continues to be better over time. Now on the other side, there is some big headwinds coming for Solana this year as we go into the next few months. So there is a lot of unlocks coming up, especially in March. $2.63 billion worth of Solana is due to be unlocked on March 1, creating fears of cell pressure. This has already led to investors selling off and I believe this is already starting to be sold off and actually analyzed in the market. Like this is not an unknown when there are known to the market that tends to be sell offs or understanding the market tends to create weeks or months beforehand. So I do think this is a little overrated. If you look at a lot of the other projects, all these projects pump a lot of supply into the ecosystem. The fundamentals are super, super strong. But this sentiment of these big unlocks can drive investor demand away as you go into this period. So just be aware of that as we go the next few months. If you're holding Solana, there could be a little bit more of a sell off to come. Now number three layer ones will shine. This has been a big narrative that we jumped off the back on in 2024. Sui was a huge winner for it. I do believe these alternative layer ones, next gen layer ones, whatever you want to call them, will continue to drive a lot of growth and excitement. When I was speaking to a lot of VCs we raised money at Collective Shift and speaking a lot of VCs, I know a lot of them in high places across the world and a lot of them tend to focus on the infrastructure level plays in crypto. Infrastructure level plays give them more opportunity to grow their capital. Consumer applications haven't really broken through. We haven't seen a great consumer application outside of say Polymarket or Pump fund so far. VCs tend to focus on these infrastructure plays because that's where you can get the billion dollar valuations plus and that's where SUI has really shown through in 2024. I do believe more alternative layer ones will have their time in the sun because they're exciting the new narratives. They're sexy. They give investors an opportunity to jump on something that's new. There may be the next Ethereum killer. These are all really attractive retail led narratives that investors like to jump on and I do believe those are Ms. Salon and Ms. Sui will continue to jump on. These next gen layer ones will come up. So I'll share a couple that we're looking at in a second. But Sui has been the best driver of those next gen layer ones for us. We made a great entry $2.20 for members in 2024. It was created by ex Facebook engineers and Sui just really gained a lot of market share as that next Solana and as that grew the TVL grew really fast and then Sui continued to show strength against Solana and Ethereum which you can see on the chart which I'm just showing you here. So what is that next SUI going to be? I do expect that trend to be a big one in 2025. Some of the ones we're looking at again those next gen layer ones. Monad is a similar player to Sui that's been spoken about for a little while now. Bearer Chain is one that I met over in Singapore in token 24. 9 last year. A liquidity focused L1 you've got story protocol so designed to bring intellectual property to the blockchains. That's a big one that we've been talking about for a little while now. Also Hyper Liquid which really gained traction at the back end of 2024 generating a lot of buzz and excitement. Innovation debuting this year in 2025. So keep an eye out for those next gen layer ones. Now number four is new token launches. This is something that definitely wouldn't have been a part of our upcoming trends if it wasn't a Trump election. But now we've seen Gary Gensler move on. Now we've seen a new, I guess, legislation and rules and just people at the helm in the US These new token launches I think are going to be massive in 2025. Very excited by the changing attitude and the environment just generally on crypto in the US it's going to be a huge role to play for us to continue driving price into 2025. And as I said, with Gary Gensler out of the equation, he was the biggest problem in crypto because he kept suing companies. It was driving offshore, you know, projects to go outside of the US at limited innovation because people didn't want to get into trouble. Now he's gone. This is really open up a huge influx of new projects, new technology, just new excitement in the ecosystem, which I'm super pumped about. So a couple that we're looking at with a more crypto friendly regulation token launches for 2025. One is MetaMask. So we do believe that MetaMask may be thinking about launching a token tied to the Metamask chain and the Ethereum L2 network. You've got polymarket. Polymarket is in my opinion the leading so far consumer application in crypto. Polymarket is that bidding app where you can basically bet on a range of different markets without that middle person, which is absolutely epic. A successful token launch in 2025 could be very, very likely. Pump Fun, which is Solana's leading meme coin app and Solana's leading, I guess, consumer application. Those that have been, you know, trading on Pump Fun could be rewarded with an airdrop in 2025, which is super exciting. You've got Story Protocol, as I mentioned just before, a new layer one purely bringing intellectual property on the blockchain that's going to be interesting one to keep an eye out for. And then Monad and a couple of those other layer ones are similar to Sui, which could be launching their token in 2025. So many more to come. Maybe Fantom as well. I think it's just going to be the narrative 2025, a lot of token launches rewarding those early users. And now that there's that better, you know, adoption and a better oversight and regulatory frameworks, I think these tokens are going to be a much better environment to be more confident about launching these tokens, which of course could cause a lot of price increase into 2025, which is super exciting. Now the biggest one that we all have our eyes on is the Bitcoin strategic Reserve our prices for bitcoin pre this strategic bitcoin reserve targets were probably 150, 160,000 US this cycle. We could see this really, really grow if the strategic bitcoin reserve gets through. The U.S. senate proposal was essentially the Bitcoin Reserve act where they would look to buy 5% of the supply over 20 years. So they would look to buy 1 million bitcoin. If it it was passed. It could spark a massive international arms race to buy more bitcoin. You could see other countries like Japan, Russia, Brazil starting to look into this idea as well and other countries follow. I believe this would pump the bitcoin price massively, which will drag the entire market cap of crypto even higher. So keep an eye out for that. How likely is it at the moment? You know, we're looking at maybe sort of that 30%, I think 30% range based on, you know, just talking to different people in the space about it getting approved. In his first hundred days of actually being elected to Donald Trump, you know, he may also just push through an executive order to do it himself anyway. But this is such a big thing and we know Trump wants to be, you know, the home of crypto. He wants to really drive those, you know, the innovation. He wants to be known as that home base for people to build their projects, to be comfortable investing. And I think that's going to be just again a massive driver in 2025. Number six is banks entering the custody game. I know a lot of you don't like banks being involved in crypto, but the reality is to really get the mainstream adoption and get people that don't know crypto. Banks need to be involved in the space. So if we see the banks entering the custody game, this is an absolutely big one. So the end of SAB121, which was a new rule restricting banks holding cryptocurrencies on behalf of their clients and customers. If this was to turn around, imagine logging into commbank. I mean that rule was more of a US thing, but like imagine logging into your commbank, your nab, your Westpac and being able to see your bitcoin crypto in there. That is huge. For individuals that are not crypto native. The ability to hold your bitcoin and have it custody buy a bank so you don't need to look after it for a non native tech person is absolutely huge and could be a massive adoption driver. And also if you look at things like traditional finance, they did surveys to say like, how likely are you to purchase Crypto from a bank and 83% of 35 to 44 year olds said they would through their bank because people trust banks whether or not we like it or not. That's reality situation. So having banks custody crypto and being able to buy that through a platform would be huge. Number seven, I do believe the AI crypto narrative is going to be hot again. We know AI has been a massive narrative in 2024. This is combining two of the biggest trends in tech over the last 12 to 24 months. AI and crypto. I do believe this sector is going to be really, really hot in 2025. This could lead, you know, more token launches in this space. You know I personally have allocation to Prime. Prime's like an AI gaming token. I think AI continues to outperform and if you have a look at that performance chart on your screen here, you can see that AI has been a massive catalyst with more upgrades coming. ChatGPT 5 upgrades to Siri Alexa developed by agents. This is just a huge narrative that is crossing over the crypto that's going to be massive for investors in 2025. And it just acts as like crypto AI tokens act generally is a broader, I guess exposure asset. So you can get exposure the AI trends without having to go and buy Nvidia or something like that, which is absolutely awesome. So you know, as we see that continuing to grow, I do believe AI is going to be a massive area of interest in 2025. Number eight is Ethereum's rebound I believe is an inevitable. I've been buying Ethereum since $80. I'm super bullish on Ethereum, haven't sold any. I don't think it's dead. I think again it holds 40, 50% of the TVL of DeFi. Ethereum has a lot of the biggest companies in the world building on top of it. But yet it's just not sexy and it's not interesting for a lot of people that have been in the space I get. But I do believe despite its struggles we saw this with Solana. Things turned around with the developer adoption real world asset integration. The partnerships is building with Coinbase, Kraken, Sony Group, you know, even like the ETFs using, you know, different things. BlackRock having their tokenized fund layer two solutions like base really starting to kick off with a cheaper, more efficient network. I believe personally the ETH btc, you know chart will bottom at some stage. Very, very soon things will turn and Ethereum look to go on a massive resurgence in 2025. So super bullish about that. Number nine is the macro environment. This is something that we all need to always consider. The macro environment has such a massive impact on crypto. We can't just look with inside crypto. We also need to look at the impacts of, you know, what the world is doing, the M2 money supply, government environment, things like that. This has a big impact on crypto and we are expected to see interest rates continue to fall in 2025 if that happens and we start to see the money supply increase. Historically this has had a massive correlation with the strength in bitcoin. So if we see the money to sort of the M2 money supply increase, the balance sheet expand, the governments start to vibrate. As we know, bitcoin pumps off the back of that. So I think the probability for that to occur is quite high, especially if rates start to fall. And you can look at some of the charts and surveys based on the Fed meetings. You know, if we start to see the rates continue to come down and that occur, I do believe bitcoin is going to absolutely fly. So 2025 is shaping up to be a massive year of crypto. There's also narratives and sectors and different things with inside those trends that I just mentioned, but they're sort of the big ones. I do believe bitcoin is going to continue to grow, it's going to pull the rest of the market up and crypto is in the best position to really outperform most sectors this cycle. Super bullish. I hope you enjoyed that video. If you'd like to see more, we'd love for you to leave a subscribe. 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