220. Bitcoin All Time Highs, Here’s Why Your Altcoins Are Still Down

Welcome back to another episode of the Ben and Bergs podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift alongside Ms. Bergs, your favorite MBA and CEO of collectorshift. We're here to bring you world class crypto research strategies and insights to help you crush this crypto bull market. Plus get an exclusive behind the scenes look as we scale Australia's leading crypto research company. And we are back Bergs. We took a little couple week hiatus. I've been traveling, I've been busy. Well we've both been busy. We had our biggest month ever in, in, in May mate. Has been absolutely hectic. So sorry folks for a little bit of a delay but we're back better than ever. How are you Bergs?

Going well mate, I've recovered. Was a bit crook there for a while, kept working biggest month. It's interesting where our biggest month was last November when we broke 100k, had the summit and everything and now we've eclipsed. That is absolutely incredible mate. So we've been hard at work servicing all the new customers.

Yeah it's been been a lot of work. It's been so much fun and like you said, you know funnily bitcoin hit all time highs when we were at the summit last year when we did our first summit and then pretty much it was around all time highs this this year when we did the summit. But you know the big difference is altcoins you know are still playing catch up. So today we're going to talk a little bit about that and why that's happening. We're going to go into the market, we're going to talk about a couple of different metrics I want you guys to be tracking just to give you a bit of an insight as to what's happening, why altcoins are lagging a little bit and, and why there's still a lot of momentum in the market and a lot more to come because it's been, there's a lot, lot's been happening Burgs we hit all time highs not that long ago. It was pretty much where were we if we look at our chart here where time recording about 106,000 but it was only geez a couple of weeks ago where we hit all time highs at about 111,000.

Yeah 23rd of May.

So yeah the market's been pumping but you know it's been interesting because you know a lot of the indicators and trackers that we look at for tops of bull markets are not signaling yet. A lot of the altcoins are still down and I think a lot of people are sort of wondering what's going on. And one of the most important things I guess is if you look at the performance of bitcoin against the altcoin market and a simple chart you can look at on trading view is if you just overlay the bitcoin chart versus the others within the others is basically the altcoin market cap outside of the top 10. There's about a 40% performance gap over the last couple of months, which is pretty crazy. So why this is happening is we're still seeing so much momentum flow into bitcoin. We're seeing the M2 money supply really start to grow. There's a lot of momentum in the bitcoin market, but a lot of the old coins are really struggling because there's simply so much more in the ecosystem, so much more supply of altcoins than we've ever seen before. And it's something you and I have spoken about a lot. There's literally millions and millions and millions more coins than ever before. And you have to be very, very selective on the altcoins you, you have. And we've been pretty good this cycle in terms of our selective plays. You know, the, the top ones which we've spoken about here and obviously in our platinum group and our membership is, you know, Sui Solana syrup and hype all way outperforming the majority of the others market cap. You have to be so much more selective this cycle than ever before. And I think if you're still sitting on a bunch of altcoins, you're most likely still down across the board. So it's been a fascinating cycle burgs, but the momentum is certainly here. Right, so we've got the M2 money supply really growing. Trump last week or two weeks ago now passed this bill that kind of went through pretty, pretty quietly. It's called the one big beautiful bill and basically if it gets passed through the Senate, it's going to inject trillions of dollars into the US economy over the next 10 years and really drive M2 money supply far higher than it already is, which is huge fuel for bitcoin. We're also seeing the banks like JP Morgan, Citadel, bank of America, Wells Fargo also talking about joining to create a joint stable coin, potentially hopefully built on eth. And we're starting to really see more and more businesses accumulate more and more bitcoin. So we saw Trump's media group bought another couple of billion the other day. Was obviously seeing microstrategy continue to buy heaps. I think I saw them there in the S P. It was S P 500 or something. Burgs. You see that?

Yeah, bro, they're gonna. They're gonna scoop up all that capital, mate, like crazy. It's incredible. He just keeps executing. Absolutely insane. I love to see it. Companies are now getting his playbook. I think his job now is to basically go to other companies and teach them how to do what he does. And every other week we see new companies coming online, having a bitcoin treasury and making that a core part of their business, and they're succeeding. It's incredible.

Crazy. So we're seeing more and more companies continue to build.

Their balance sheets of bitcoin. And everyone's sort of talking bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin, but yet coins are really lagging. And I think this has been really a part of the strategy that we've continued to push for all of our platinum members. And also here on the podcast is you. You need to have a large percentage of your portfolio in bitcoin. And if you're not, you're. You're underperforming. And, you know, we're starting to see, you know, why that has been so important. And the correlation as well between the crypto market and the stock market is super correlated. So a lot of people have been asking, right, Ben, can bitcoin and crypto continue to go up while this, you know, if the stock market, you know, goes down? And I think the reality is, if we look both in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked just around the similar time to the S&P 500. And what we're starting to see, I think, is a. Is a separation between altcoins and bitcoin. They're really starting to see in two different buckets. And even if we have a bigger, more bearish dip in the stock market or the. Or the macro financial sector, I do believe that bitcoin is going to hold up really well. The fact that bitcoin only corrected around 30%, 33% in the previous correction versus previous cycles, where Bitcoin's gone down 50, 55, 60%, is a true indication that bitcoin's strength continues to hold up. And that's why I think, you know, we're going to see bitcoin far higher later this year and over the next 5, 10 years, Bitcoin is honestly, in my opinion, going to be in the hundreds of thousands, if not a million dollars in the next 10, 10, 15 years old coins, on the other hand, we don't know what's going to happen after this cycle. If you look back in the previous bull markets, the top 10 on the altcoin market caps are completely different every cycle and that's why you've got to play the short term. Yeah.

They're basically dinosaur coins now, like the ones from the last cycle.

Yeah, exactly, yeah.

And people will be thinking, well, if bitcoin's the thing, why don't I just hold bitcoin? And bitcoin's already out there on the risk curve in terms of things you could invest in in this world and you're getting around like 30 to 40% compound annual growth rate. But the thing is, that should form a big chunk of your portfolio. But there are altcoins out there and they are absolute bloody moonshots. You can go from anywhere from a 5x to 100x relatively quickly. And if you structure your portfolio correctly and you only have a small percentage allocated to it and you have a research team narrowing that down for you so you have a higher chance of success.

Absolutely. Take that opportunity.

Yeah.

Because that is the thing that really compounds your, like, really grows your wealth very, very quickly. And then you can rotate it in what, into whatever you need, whether it's your fiat currency to buy things in the real world or back into Bitcoin or into a stable coin.

Yeah. And you've got to be actively managing. I, I had a, a social media follower, follower message me on the day talking about a coin I'd spoken about in the past and wondering where the update on it was. And I explained to him that it was about a year ago when I told our members that I sold that coin because the market moved. And he was sort of, you know, asking, well, you know, how is that, you know, how is that fair that he didn't, that he didn't see that? And my, and my point back to him was, well, the reality is the market moves faster than any other market in finance and you can't just buy something and then just forget about it and hope it's going to go up. Things change and it is. This sector that I invested in was a gaming project. It was ronin, actually. And I sold it about a year ago because the market changed, the market moved and I explained my situation, I got that one wrong and I moved on. Right. So I took my 20, 30% loss and moved on and I was able to find the likes of Hype, for example, that's really completely outperformed the market. And this is my explanation to him was that just by following people online, you're only hearing small bits here and there. You're not actually keeping up with the live tracking of portfolios. If you're busy, you miss something. And also you're not going to see everything on social media. The reason people put things out is to help people, you know, invest the market. But the market moves so fast. If you're time poor, you can't just have one side of the like, well, not even that. You can't just listen to 5% of the book and know what the book's about. You've got to follow the whole journey across. And that's one major benefit of working with us, is you get to see all of our buy sells and transparency, wins, losses, whatever. Because no one's going to get it 100 right and, and I definitely don't. But the ones I do get right way outperform the market and that's why we've done so well.

Definitely. And people need to understand that this investing game is very different. It's not like the stock market where you do your research, you buy something, you check in every now and then. This is, you kind of, you buy something and then you'll start to hear whispers like in different, you know, discords forums on Twitter about narrative shifting or something happening in that project. There's a lot of little things and these just like little ripples in a pond that can turn into big things. And our team looks at those and they're like, okay, we've seen this before or we know this is going to turn into a big thing. The narrative has shifted. This guy's dodgy, whatever it may be. It is so, so crazy to try and stay on top of this yourself because things move so fast, narratives shift quickly. You've got a bunch of very rich ADHD Internet people investing in these things that it's so difficult. It's very different to the stock market. It doesn't close is global is 24 7. And these are the things you need to know when you come into this.

Investing space and you've got to make the callbergs when you've made an investment that isn't playing at the way you'd hoped and the market has changed, there's more competition. Maybe that narrative is not running as hot as what you would have hoped. You've got to make the call. And that is one major lesson that we've learned as full time investors in this space. You've got to Cut your losses and you know, I took a 30, 30, 35% haircut on, on Ronan rotated the majority of that into hype. And we look at hype and hypes up 184 in the last two months. So that, that this is this whole idea about just seeing one side of the one side of the story or one piece of content. You've got to follow the whole journey the way through crypto is continuously changing. It is, it's, it's, it's, it's liquidity. It's mo. Like it's not static. It's not, it's not do this course and then you win. It's an ongoing, you know, update, you know.

Oh yeah, it's very, it's very dynamic and you know, we've got to think about these projects where if you think about investing in the stock market, if one of your companies goes into voluntary administration, there's a very low chance they're going to come out of that and be a strong company. They'll probably close, they'll get acquired cents on the dollar. That is like a narrative change in a crypto company. Like you could have the best product be amazing and the narrative shifts. No one cares about what you're doing. They're not going to use your project or there's a small little hack or something happens with a contract or you find out that you know, one of the guys is on weird drugs or something like that. Like this is literally how crazy the space is because it's just people on the Internet in this global 24. 7 market and you need to be absolutely on it or have some people to be on it for you.

Yeah, bang on. And that's the whole premise of what we do, right? We, we invest full time and we just share everything we do so you don't have to do all the work yourself. You can fast track that and, and follow us. And I, I think the most exciting thing burgs is like even when we hit all time highs, you know, a couple of weeks ago, it didn't feel like a top. And it wasn't like previous tops. You know, we, we saw no real hype, no real euphoria. Fund like funding rates in terms of leverage were still quite low. No one was really using excess leverage. Fear and greed was, was just flashing extreme greed. It wasn't kind of in the crazy territory. But then no one was talking about.

You know, crypto. Uber drivers weren't social feed, social feeds, group chats, like none of that was happening. Even Google search Volume for bitcoin was still near the bottom. Like the social sentiment and the biggest indicators that we track and nowhere near the top. And I think the most important thing here that I think we've got all we've got to remember that so many people don't buy like retail, right, do not buy bitcoin. They buy altcoins and if they bought altcoins back in November, they are still down on those. Most people are down on altcoins and when they're down, they're disinterested, maybe they sell, they get fearful, they don't want to buy back in. But that is the opportunity. Because what's going to happen once bitcoin really rallies and we start to see Bitcoin hit the 121, 30, 140 and people start to go, shit, this thing's not dead. And they see the altcoins coming back, then the spot demand is going to come back, then the FOMO is going to hit and then we're going to have that altcoin season. So you've just got to be patient and know that that's the opportunity.

Exactly right. And my portfolio didn't hit an all time high. It did in, I think it was November, December. But even with this, with bitcoin, it didn't hit an all time high. That's for a couple of reasons.

I do hold a lot of bitcoin in my portfolio as a percentage and I think that's also because the US dollar has gone down quite a bit because down like 155, it was like 167, so that's a big multiplier. And I hit all time high in US dollar terms. So a lot of people won't be at that euphoric stage because they haven't hit that all time high in their portfolios. That was a few months back.

Yeah, bang on, bang on. And why I still think, and I mentioned this at the start, why I'm still so excited, not only do you have those social sentiment metrics, but the biggest one around, global liquidity is still growing and one of the charts, if you just look at the M2 money supply, it's one of the most actionable macro signals I've seen this cycle where if you look at the leading indicator of M2 money supply, it is literally tracking it basically by 11 weeks. And the alignment is pretty crazy. And you never put all your eggs in one basket and this is always previous data. So you never, you know, you never know. Exactly right. But looking at the Tailwinds of, you know, global liquidity still resuming. We're going in an uptrend. Altcoins are still sort of compressed. All the retail really aren't here. There's no real spot demand. I believe that that is the opportunity and the asymmetric upside, that when we start to see bitcoin really follow through and we start to see those retail metrics come back and bitcoin continues to grind towards 120, 130, 140. I'm still very confident by the end of this year we're going to start to see some really exciting price action.

Oh, mate. People have no idea what's coming. Like, we talk about God candles and Omega candles. So God candles is a 10k move in one day. We've had that plenty of times in bitcoin. That could be 10k up, 10k down. Omega candle is going to be like 100k move in a day either way.

Right?

Could go down 100k, could go up 100k. People are not ready for that shit. And if you think about it, when bitcoin approaches half a million, that's 20%. When it approaches a million, that's only a 10% move. Like you're going to be. If you hold one coin, you're going to be up 100k in a day. These are just unprecedented things and this is what we're trending towards. Even bitcoin overtook Amazon, right.

In market cap, which is a hilarious comparison. But we're still a 10x away from gold.

Yeah. And imagine that, right?

We are going to eclipse gold.

Bitcoin at the gold market cap, right, is essentially like a 10x. So let's say that's about one. Yeah. Essentially a 1. 1 million USD Bitcoin.

Right?

And you have a 10% move. We're moving 100,000 USD at a time.

Yes. And you think about that. And if you know this thing is going to 10x, might be two years, might be five years, might be 10 years. Shit, you better be on that train.

And people. And this is where people get caught up. Splitting hairs between buying in at 97, 95, 84.

Doesn't.

Paramount doesn't. Doesn't matter 100%.

You are not going to notice at all. I was the same with like smaller coins. Just get on the rocket ship. You don't care about your fucking seat on the rocket ship. Just get on the rocket ship. You're sitting at the front, great. You're sitting at the back, fucking great. You're on the Ship. Just get on the fucking ship.

Doesn't matter if you're business, economy, whatever.

Just get on the ship 100%. You don't want to be on the bloody tarmac when this rocket ship takes off.

Yeah. And also that goes to, to all of you guys and listeners that are holding shitcoins that to be fair and clear, that is not a ticket on the rocket ship. A lot of these, you know, altcoins are selling, selling fake marketing for you to go to, you know, to go to the moon. They're not going anywhere. They're gonna blow a engine before even taking off and you're gonna be still sat on earth while everyone else on the rocket ship. So make sure you have your, your portfolio allocation.

Right, so this is it. Let's just say there's a thousand spots on the rocket ship. If you own bitcoin, you've got one of those spots. If you've got only altcoins, you've got a lottery ticket and there's two spots left and there's about 50 million people behind you. And two of you are going to get on that rocket ship.

Great. Now if you join Collective Shift, you have a better chance of that lottery ticket because we're going to try and give you those insights. But if you're on your own, go to the news agents and buy a ticket because that's the only way. That's it.

If you're, if you're joining Collective Shift, we are going to get you to hold some bitcoin anyway. So you will be on that rocket ship. You'll be able to celebrate with us.

Yeah.

And reorganize your alts into things that have a much higher chance of success.

Bang on. With that being said, there is a bit of a waitlist the moment for Platinum because it's been in such high demand. But if you do not want to round trip this cycle, you genuinely want to build your wealth and you have zero time, Collective Shift Platinum is the best place for you to get those. Elite level access, personalized strategy, research, support from Bergs, myself, the team who just don't want you to round trip again.

Yeah, and this is legit. Like Ben showed me his calendar and it's just back to back one on ones from now until infinity.

Completely fine. So we offered a BO for those of you that joined the summit. Obviously we offered that bonus and then you know, we were not expecting the, the demand and you know, I, I think we had, I actually, you know, I don't even know how many people we've had sign up at this point and I remember the team going Ben wait, you have to do all the one on ones. How you going to do that? I'm like I don't know, I didn't think about that. I didn't think we're going to get that many.

Hang on, hang on. First of all we did tell you we're like the two weeks after the summit, make sure you allocate some time, take it off, you know if things go really well and you're like yeah, no worries mate. And he plans like all this like education and business stuff. Flying to Malaysia to like learn all this stuff. I'm like bro, you made your own bed mate. You were too successful with the summit.

Classic, classic Ben move Anyway. So if you have more than $250,000 in crypto or you have a large portfolio wanting to build it there, maybe you've round tripped or you don't want to round trip, you just want to fast track that your time poor with your business, your career, your family, whatever and you're just literally trying to chase some wealth and freedom and not just the overnight returns. Collective Shift Platinum is for you. You can join up. You get a one on one session with either myself or one of our experts, with our analysts, you get all the monthly calls, the private WhatsApp community, all my buys and sells in the WhatsApp. Your own dedicated account manager, research, full access to our research platform, everything. There is a bit of a wait list and we do have an application process so if you are interested just click the link in the description below Collective Shift IO Platinum and we'll see if it's a good fit.

Yeah and we do have our in person event in at the end of July which is going to be epic in Melbourne. So if you've been thinking about becoming a Platinum member, jump on a call, talk to DT or talk to Ben, see if it's right for you and get in for that event because it's going to be cracking.

It's going to be epic. So end of July is the full day annual Platinum Strategy day where all the team comes in, we've got guest speakers, we do drinks. I think there's already 50, 55 platinum members register for that. It's gonna be absolutely epic. It's gonna be so much fun. And also we have a money back guarantee because we, we truly believe this product is great. And if you jump in and you go Ben and Bergs are just taking The Pierce absolutely 100 give you money back.

Definitely.

I don't think that's ever been used. Which is, you know, pretty, pretty crazy to think. Yeah, actually maybe once.

Wasn'T for them because again this is for that that person was actually a full time trader. And you know, we're not.

Yeah, they're massive. Dj right.

Yeah, we're not, we're not for, you know, trade like full time. We're not for traders anyway. We're really for those busy people that want to build a long term portfolio. So jump over, check it out. We also have our pro membership as well for those that aren't at that level. But super, super excited to help you out. We are just beginning the rest of this year is going to be absolutely phenomenal. So jump on board.

Awesome, mate. Great episode.

Thanks folks. If you like the episode, we'd love for you to share around with a friend or family member that's also in crypto. It's how we grow the podcast each and every week. Subscribe if you're on YouTube and we'll see you on the next episode.

Thanks champions.