228. Ben’s New Bitcoin Price Target, Vertical Breakout Begins

Welcome back to another episode of the bennetberg Podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift alongside Ms. Berg, your favorite MBA and CEO of Collective Shift. We're here to bring you world class crypto research insights and strategies to help you crush this crypto bull market. Plus get an exclusive behind the scenes look as we scale Australia's leading crypto research company. If you love the podcast, we'd love for you to leave us a review. Share it with a friend or family member as the markets are pumping. We've been doing this now for nearly three years which is absolutely bananas. Bring you free insights each and every week, helping you out in a no way. And Berg has been great man. I've, we've had obviously a massive explosion on the, on the business side and I get to do so many conversations with new clients that sign up new members and I mean so many are actually Ben and Berg's listeners which is phenomenal. From like younger guys, single, trying to like you know, make it to like older retirees that are just getting into crypto. You know there's, it's really cool to meet the listeners and in November actually at Oz Crypto Con we'll do another live Ben and Bergs which is really cool. So we'll share more details on that soon so we can meet and see everyone but so exciting man. I love meeting the, the listeners.

How good. It's always the best when you, you have a Ben and Bergs fan and come back. Oh remember when you said this or like this thing really helped me out or I got my portfolio sorted and always looking forward to an in person Bennebergs. Did we ever get that recording, mate? Are we still waiting for it a year on?

Don't think so mate. Pretty, pretty classic. You know maybe that's the, maybe that's the incentive mate. It's exclusive. Never to be seen before. Have to be there live to hear.

The insights and to get some merch, baby.

I still remember that old lady got knocked over on the way out. Was a stampede to the merch it was mate.

It's, it's Bennett Burgs. It's going to be wild.

Now what else is wild? Bitcoin has broken through all time highs. What a run it has been on. At time of recording we sort of pulled back to that $117,000 range but we have just gone on this absolute tear like it was bottom of literally the pullback. We have pullback. The lowest we got in June which was a month ago to where we are right now at 117,000 up 20% in a month. You know, these are huge numbers even going back to May, like or April, the 18th of April when we had the. Sorry, even a little bit further. If we look at the dip that we got to the bottom of the tariff news, which was at the time about the early April, let's say the 6th of April. So if we look at where we are from then to now, in a touch over three months, up 60% of an asset that's over a trillion dollars in market cap.

Let's go wild. Love the volatility, mate. It's crazy to see these kind of numbers, mate. Huge.

And, and I've actually increased my price tag at Berg. So I put this post out for our members last week, but I thought I'd share it for the Benneberg's listeners because I think it's important. You know, we're starting to see this real bitcoin vertical breakout. And what's most significant for me is there's a few things that have sort of all coming together and the macro indicators are really starting to finally align. So first of all, bitcoin dominance starting to roll over. So we started to see the ETH BTC chart breakout, which is a bit of an altcoin confirmation, which is very, very exciting, but for crypto because it means there's new capital coming in and risk on assets are starting to be seen as more, I guess investors are more confident in the risk on assets. But we also saw the US pass the big beautiful bill which we spoke about in a previous episode, increasing debt. But now they're also looking at exploring potential tax exemptions for crypto and bitcoin, which is really, really interesting. And we're also starting to see ETF volumes pick up again. So ETH had its biggest ETF volume day ever last week. We're starting to see more capital roll in and just this, I guess, convergence of liquidity, macro finance lining up the US really pushing crypto and people looking for a home to park their cash and their fiat and bitcoin is just that asset. And now we're starting to see altcoins starting to follow. Once we start really seeing global liquidity expanding, flowing into bitcoin and then retail investors arriving into altcoins. That has been the convergence of what we've been waiting for for so long and why bitcoin's running up and is holding extremely strong. We haven't really had.

Like a deep correction at all. Like we've had these sort of mini pullbacks, 110 to 100 like little 10% corrections. But it's been a really slow grind. Higher bergs which is extremely strong. So just to round that up because I want to get your thoughts. I've actually increased my price prediction for this cycle raising from 150,000 US to 180,000 US. I will still be looking at taking profits around that $150,000 level but I do believe we're going higher this cycle based on everything I'm seeing. So very bullish.

Awesome. So for me my portfolio is now at all time high. The last time was at all time high was December, January and I think that was because prices were lower in some.

Areas like bitcoin was a lot lower but the US dollar was a lot stronger. And things are priced in US dollars against Australian dollars. I think it was close to $1.70. Now it's like A$53. So that plays you know, big when you're doing the conversion. So all time high, very happy. And I think we said ages ago you had $150,000 target for Bitcoin and now you've revised that to 180. What do you mean when you say just for the listeners that you have a target price? What does that mean? What are you going to do when that price actually comes around?

Yeah, so I really want to make sure it's clear in all our listeners minds. And I talk talk about this a lot in our, in our membership is Bitcoin and altcoins are two separate asset classes. Right. Bitcoin is the asset that I want to stack as much as I can for. For pretty much forever. Right. What I'm saying when I think bitcoin is going to hit $180,000 is based on the fact that structurally I believe that's going to be around the time where I'm going to start to take potentially up to one third of my bitcoin stack off the table to reallocate into other assets and diversify into things like property. But the remaining 2/3 are going to keep in stack for a long time. What we see in crypto is four year cycles, right. And whether or not the four year cycle is broken or not doesn't really matter. It really more aligns with macro liquidity. What we tend to see though is once crypto gets really very euphoric and we get a lot of retail investments and the market gets overextended is that it needs a cooling off period and a correction and that's that correction period where we may retrace 30, 40, 50%. And what I'm saying here is that based on, you know, U.S. policy, global liquidity, altcoin market cap starting to really rally is that I believe bitcoin will get to somewhere around $180,000 now before we start to see a bit of a correction and deeper potentially, you know, multi month correction period. So that'll always update on data. But my altcoin, that bitcoin target gives me my altcoin targets. You know, I don't necessarily set altcoin targets because it can get very, very far, it go very quickly. Bitcoin gives me a good leading indicator on when I might start to take my altcoin profits.

And your goal is to stack more bitcoin.

That's the ultimate goal. So the number one goal is for me right now is to diversify. So I'm buying property for my parents. I also want to look at potentially, you know, building up a, like a stock portfolio, whether that be like a cash generating liquid, you know, managed fund, something like that, to also get some diversification away from crypto because of my business and my crypto assets are in crypto. But then once I've got that, I've got a nice little property stack. I've got maybe some stocks, maybe some, some liquid assets in, you know, know, the sort of shares or whatever that looks like. Then I'll come back to stacking more bitcoin. I think going to continue to compound at, you know, 20, 30, 40% for a long time. But I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.

So when we did this last time, you were 150. I think I was like 250 for a price target for Bitcoin. And now I think I've changed the way I think completely since we did that episode, which may be eight to 12 months ago. So it was definitely before, before December. So last year now I think I'll be stacking more bitcoin. And I look at it in terms of when I used to first get into the stock market and you'd read these like magazines back then because they used to move markets and reading forums, reading Hot Copper, all these junior miners, all this kind of thing. And you start to try and buy individual stocks and speculative stocks and get in and get out and it's, it's more akin to swing trading, doing technical analysis, all those kind of things. And now I just put my money into ETFs and I'm dollar cost averaging in. I'm buying every other week and that's going to go for infinity. And I'm going to have every 10 years. I'll have a couple of down years and that will be fine. But I'm buying the total market. I'm starting to apply that thinking to crypto now as well, where, yeah, I do have, you know, 15% of my portfolio in altcoins and I'll manage those. But I really see bitcoin as being the equivalent of having an ETF where it's relatively predictable and people want it. You know, it's going to be around for a while and I don't want to miss out on it. So I start putting more and more in there. Because I'm in a different position to you, Ben, where I don't need to diversify. I'm already diversified. I think I need a bit more risk. No, I don't think I need a bit more risk and a bit more concentration. That will come from bitcoin and a few alts and I don't require the cash flow. I have enough cash flow outside of work, then I've got work with you and the business that gives me additional cash flow. So for me, I don't actually have a price target for bitcoin. It is something that I'm probably going to keep buying until the day I die. Yeah, for every marginal dollar I have, that's where it's going to be placed.

No, I, I think you're bang on, mate. Like, the ultimate goal, I say, is to stack as much bitcoin as you can. And people go, well, do you want to get all out and you want to buy back in? I don't try and split hairs. I don't try and time the market either. I say to people, what's the risk to reward for you trying to sell your bitcoin at the peak and buy back in? Okay, let's talk about the reward. The reward is you may be able to get an extra 20, 30% if you time the market perfectly. If you get out of everything and you can get back in at the right time, the risk is that you don't buy back in at the right time. You miss the entry and now you have a tax bill and you are sidelined with cash. And now the market's ripping again. So the reward is 20 to 30% and the risk is literally infinite. To the downside with how high, you're basically shorting the market. When you sell your asset, when you sell bitcoin, you're Essentially shorting it. So by you shorting bitcoin, you have infinite downside, because you don't. If you miss it, bitcoin could continue ripping to infinite prices and you're sidelined. Exactly.

And if you want to do that, why don't you just option some short place positions? Like you can do that. And yeah, moving your money out, you're going to have a capital gain, you're going to have to pay tax and then whatever that equates to, you're going to have to pay. You want to get back in with the ultimate goal of increasing the amount of bitcoin that you have. To me, it's too much like just putting your hand in a trap and it's going to snap on you. Like, I've played that game before and it has never worked out. I'm not in the top 0.1% of traders. It's not going to be me. I'll gladly take that chunk in the middle. So really think about what you're doing and really zoom out to the long term. Because if we take a very simple metric where I think most people believe bitcoin will overtake gold because it's a better type of gold, that's still a 10x from here. Even at 120 USD, that's still a 10x from here. We're talking in 10x's we're not talking in 20, 30% in terms of pullbacks. So if you are going to play that game, just recognize the game you're playing, don't carry the risk of ruin and actually try and calculate what the benefit is of you selling some bitcoin, there being a pullback and you buying back in. I see the question asked quite a lot in our platinum group, Ben, where people like, well, where's the top? I want to sell then and then I want to get back in and I want to increase this. And if you're playing that game, it's a very, very dangerous game. And a lot of people lose a lot of assets that way.

Yeah, it's a dangerous game and I think this could be a good. Actually Berg's podcast we do separately because we could talk about this along. You know, a lot people try to get into crypto to retire or they want to reduce the amount of time they're working. So they try and use crypto as a way to generate income. But crypto has a very, very poor mechanism generating income. Crypto is not an income generating asset. You can create a yield, but. But you're earning a yield. In an asset that's volatile, you know, crypto is not a good income generating asset. You need to think about it in different ways. So that's where people try and do these crazy trading and try and quit their 9 to 5, which is completely bullshit in my opinion because 99% of people shouldn't trade. And it's very, very risky. And I think there is different strategies and the way I think think about it is building up your crypto, building up, investing in the right assets, building up your capital to then look at either property or cash generating assets like businesses or, you know, income generating stocks. That's, that's what's going to give you the income that you can look to reduce your time at work or retire on. But crypto is very difficult, you know, to, to generate an income on. It's not, it's not built for that.

Yeah. And those other vehicles are more tax efficient as well.

Totally, totally.

So that's something you need to definitely need to consider. And just consider the simple fact that, you know, wealth moves from the hands of the impatient to the patient.

Like if you sit back and you accumulate wealth over time, give it a little bit of time in crypto, it's honestly hyper accelerating compared to the what average 10 to 12% you will get in traditional markets, you're getting significantly more in crypto, you're compounding at 30 to 40% at least. Just get out your little Google sheets, your Excel, do your little calculations to see how fast you get there. Don't try and get there in a year. And honestly, with the explosion that we've seen now, we're going to look back in a couple of years and laugh that we're excited that bitcoin went from 100 to 120k. Just like when I, what about end of 2022? So I'd started collector shift, I've been there for six months and bitcoin was like 20k. And we're like, oh, you know, it's expensive, should I buy more? And it was only 3k like the year before or something like that. It's so, so crazy. Yeah, this is going to go on and on in, in one of my chats with my mates. So none of my mates have talked about bitcoin or anything like that. And then one of them just goes, who actually owns bitcoin? He's like, oh, bitcoin all time high. Well done. Your business must be pumping. And I was like, bro, we're going to have this conversation almost every other month until we die. When you think about it, the way this is structured, things are just going to go up. It's going to be more amazing.

And think about the stock market. Sorry, I was going to say think about the stock market. The stock market just. Do people invest because they just know it goes up. Like that is going to be the same with bitcoin. It's going to continually hit all time highs for years and years and years and years to come. How crazy is that? Yeah.

And people buy, have bought gold historically for those exact reasons. And the more that currency is devalued, the more that bitcoin is going to go up. It's actually going to accelerate the journey, let alone the scarcity.

Crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. Look folks, now is the time where the bull market is ramped up. We want to help you guys out. Please make sure you're getting your portfolio sorted. Hopefully you've learned a lot from us in this podcast. We're going to keep pushing out stuff for free. If you want to take another step and work with us, work with our team, join our platinum group, get the one on one sessions, join the strategy and really try and make sure you don't stuff this cycle up. You can check it out. Our platinum program, it's not for everyone. You do need to apply. You just go to CollectiveShift IE Platinum. You can check it out. We are actually increasing pricing to this very soon because of the amount of increased in volume and demand for the, for the product. We can't help everyone. So if you are interested, check that out. We will be also releasing our lower tier very soon as well. If you aren't above a quarter of a million in investable assets. But look, regardless, hopefully you've learned a lot. Hopefully you've had the patience. Hopefully you've got things set up just from being a Benbergs listener and we want to make sure that you guys are getting as much free value as we can because that's what we love, to make an impact and a difference just by helping all of you out. So yeah, now is an exciting time, Burgs. It's, it's all happening very fast. And keep stacking your bitcoin.

Absolutely. That's the message. Like we say this almost every episode and if you haven't done it yet, just buy some Bitcoin. Buy 20 bucks worth. Just get in the game, hold it, enjoy it and get rich with the rest of us.

Love it. Thanks so much folks. If you like this episode, please share it with a friend or a family member. It's How We Grow the podcast each and every week. Leave us a follow or subscribe on your podcasting app and we'll see you on the next episode.

Thanks, champions.