236. What’s Coming Next for Bitcoin and Altcoins

Welcome back to another episode of the Ben and Bodcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift, alongside Ms. Bergs, your favorite MBA and CEO of Collective Shift. We're here to bring you world class crypto research strategies and insights to help you crush this crypto bull market. Plus, get an exclusive behind the scenes look as we scale one of the world's leading crypto research companies. If you like the podcast, we'd love for you to share it with a friend. That's how we grow. And if you're on YouTube, please subscribe or follow us on your favorite podcasting app. Now Burks. Today we're talking about upcoming crypto market catalysts, bull markets in full swing. What we're expecting, where we think things going to go. There's so many talk, you know, talks about where the top's going to be, what's happening, you know, is the top going to be the end of this year, is going to be next year. And I think the biggest thing that we're seeing is that fundamentally this bull market is being super, super strong. You know, what we usually or tend to see is huge blow off tops, huge movements in altcoin swings. But we haven't really seen that. We've had sort of this slow, steady growth higher and it hasn't been driven by retail, it's primarily been driven by institutions. And there's a number of catalysts that we want to talk about today around institutions, around the M2 money supply, interest rate cuts, where altcoins are at sentiment to really give all of you listeners an understanding of where we think the cycle's going. Because look man, we're, we're, we're bullish, aren't we both? Like things are moving strong and like I don't think they're going to be slowing down in the short term.

That's right. Like you look at the monthly kind of chart even for bitcoin and it's a nice kind of stair step pattern where it's like you get that huge volatility up, then you get some kind of sideways a little bit down the huge volatility up. It's not like the massive insane euphoria we were seeing in know, 2017, 2021. It's actually quite welcomed, mate.

I'm enjoying it. And I think the biggest reason or the biggest change this cycle compared to previous cycles is, you know, we've spoken about for years, when are the institutions coming? Like if you've been in crypto for a long time, like the institutions are coming. It was kind of that saving grace or like the reality is they're here now. You know, like bitcoin is no longer, in my opinion, like kind of this speculative asset. Like you've got a lot of institutions, you've got countries buying and holding bitcoin now. And unlike 2017, 2013, a lot of those markets or bull markets were driven on retail. And now we're seeing institutions heavily invest the approval of the bitcoin ETF.

That was only last year. Burgs, that's crazy.

Unbelievable, right?

ETF in the middle of last year has just changed the game in those on flows that institutions have, you know, demand into, into bitcoin and you know, 12.5% of all Bitcoin is now held by funds and public companies. How crazy that this is so good.

So this is what really builds structure, right? Where these companies won't be short term traders, they'll only sell those assets if they absolutely have to. So they're building into their company treasuries, you've got ETFs, you've got pension funds, you've got countries buying it. And it's a beautiful thing to see. And that kind of gives us, you know, built in like holding of bitcoin. The challenge we're going to see though is when M Nav trends down towards zero. So all these trading, all these companies are trading at a market net asset value of bitcoin at a multiple. Right? But the more companies that kind of do it, we're starting to see in the market that are starting to trend down. Because the question is, why should you be valued at a multiple of your bitcoin holdings when it should just be market value is something we can actually value. And the reason it is a multiple is because we expect bitcoin to go much, much higher. You're getting in at a cheaper price, all these kind of things. But a lot of checkmate stuff is trending towards one to one like you would cash or any other asset, which is very, very fascinating to watch. Irrespective of that, that's those companies trading in the company values, they're still holding that bitcoin. They are not selling that bitcoin, which is amazing.

And for those listeners that didn't quite understand what's happening there, you've essentially got companies like MicroStrategy, they were the first one. Now there's literally tens, maybe hundreds of these companies that are spinning off now that essentially go and raise capital to buy bitcoin, you know, so you've got this like really, really steep increase in demand for bitcoin that they're going to pay back over time. Now you know what happens if, if Bitcoin has a huge sharp correction and depending on how deep that goes, like you can argue, no one knows how that's going to play out. However, like you said Berg, there's kind of been a, you know the, there's a lot of speculation right on what Bitcoin is worth and it's starting to come a little bit more into fruition. We're no longer getting these massive crazy multiples on these companies. It's like, well yeah, why don't we just value it for the price that it is?

Because at the same time you're running a company, you have an operating business that you need to fund and at some point those assets are going to get called. It's like you can't value this at 2 or 3x to what the market price is. It needs to be reasonable when you have it on your balance sheet. And we're not going to give you these crazy valuations. And we see this with all kind of booms like you'd see in AI companies or tech companies. Listed companies have certain reporting they have to do as well. So the books are open and people are starting to say, well why is it valued at this much? And we've got to remember that it's super weird that these companies are going out, they're raising money and they're saying we're going to buy Bitcoin. What they're actually saying is we're raising money and that's a better investment than investing in our company that's has operating a business that's outside of whatever the bitcoin holdings are. But they're like no, no, this is going to be a thing, we'll do it for you. We'll follow the micro strategy playbook and this is going to be another arm of our company. It's. I love it but it's super weird.

Well, and going back to where I think bitcoin is shifting into, it may already be there. It's far less of what is speculation. People are still speculate on it but Bitcoin is now really being seen as this asset that people are putting cash into to offset the risk of other assets. But also because it is a risk on asset that when you get good monetary economic conditions like we've seen with the, the global M2 money supply growth that is continuing to grow, when you get interest rates that have come down or Coming down. You know, last week we had, you know, interest rates reduce. They are fuel for risk on assets. So when you see interest rates come down, when you see money become easier to access, risk on assets tend to do well. Now, the stock market, I believe, is at the moment, at all time, highs or close to, depending on when you listen to this. And that is again another reason where we see the US Dollar weaken because of even, like going back to the big, beautiful bill, right? $2 trillion worth of debt every year. The US government's in 35, $36 trillion worth of debt. Interest rates coming down, global money supply going up, US Dollar weakening, stock market ripping. These are all very, very good conditions for crypto.

And this is what people really need to focus on and understand. So why are people valuing crypto at a higher price than it currently is? If we just take bitcoin for simplicity, where it's a fixed supply of something, everything else is priced in dollars. The dollars are being devalued, they're printing more, they're worth less, there's more in circulation. It's eventually going to become funny money where you have too much. That scarce asset, same with property, is priced in those dollars. So it's not that those assets are going up, it's that the dollar is going down. And what you can purchase with that dollar is getting less and less. So if you're holding dollars, you're going to be in trouble. If you're holding an asset that beats inflation, you'll be okay in the long term. And just talking about those companies, man. Okay, so when companies have a lot of cash, essentially what they do is one of the options they have to them is a share buyback. They either pay a dividend or do a share buyback. And essentially what they're saying is, we've got a cash problem. The best investment we can see in the market is to buy our own company. And shareholders, we'll give you the cash. Here you go. Bang. You give us back some of our shares. Now the cash is your problem. And Bitcoin is a solution to that as well, where you could either put that in your treasury, or people that get that money instead of investing back in that company can then place it into Bitcoin. It's almost like a shelling point where.

No matter what scenario you run, it all comes back to Bitcoin and it's where you should be placing your money and it solves the majority of problems that we have in the world today.

Yeah, that's why when you think about that and then how few people still understand the mechanism of bitcoin being like the purest form of money. And when you think about what will happen as more people and more companies catch on to this, you know, the US debt, the global debt isn't going down, it's only going up. So where is that going to be in five years, 10 years time?

Like, is that, what, what would the US. What would the US government do if aliens land on earth tomorrow? Print more money. Like that's their response to everything, right?

Yeah, yeah. And now you've got, you know, Bitcoin. The US government own 1% of the entire bitcoin supply. The other thing as well, in terms of, like, why I think we're going well into next year in terms of this bull market, is you've got Trump at the helm, which is just pushing and driving for the US economy to grow. You know, he's at the throat of Jerome Powell wanting rates to be cut. He wants to be. He wants him to be thrown out next year. When I think it's March or something, I need to check with Matt. I had a research, but I think there's something around that March date is when Jerome Powell comes up to time where, you know, he might be moving on. Who will that next person replace him? Like, there's so many things that you look at even the other day, like, you know, Trump held a dinner with the CEOs of some of the largest companies in, in the U.S. right? You had OpenAI, had Google X, had Elon. Elon wasn't there. You had.

Chamath, like you had all of these, like global leaders of companies. And he was basically, it was basically a PR fest of like them all sharing how much money they're investing into the US and he's bringing everything back and he's wanting the US to be the home and he wants to drive the economy. Drive tech and crypto's a part of that conversation now. And I just don't see a world in the next two or three years where it doesn't become less prominent to where it is right now.

Even two of the Trump boys are speaking at token 2049 on the keynote stage for their crypto companies, which they own. That is a big part of what they do. And if that isn't a signal, I don't know what is. Like when you literally got the President's sons.

Heavily into crypto companies, flying around the world, talking at the biggest events, that is literally biggest signal I have ever seen.

Literally. Now, where does that Leave the bull market. And where do we think, you know, this cycle end? Well, like there's a couple of different outcomes in my opinion. You know, I think my.

Higher likelihood scenario is that we see a more continued, like slow grind higher, like the more measured growth, like bitcoin continues to grind higher. Altcoins climb off the back of bitcoin. But it's kind of more in a controlled way. You know, the market structure is healthier. We don't see these crazy euphoric blow offs and massive corrections. We do have corrections and whatnot, but that kind of gets us into the maybe middle or end of 2026, who knows? The other scenario is that no, bitcoin continues to grind higher and then altcoins and retail come flying in. We see a huge influx of retail investors. You know, altcoins really push more into a euphoric run. Bitcoin rallies towards that 150, $180,000 level. It's quite explosive. And then we have that bigger correction like we normally do. You know, they're the kind of two main scenarios that's playing out in my head. I think path one, which I mentioned, the more measured scenarios, what I think will continue to play out. But there's a lot of signals we need to see and watch. There's also a few things that could completely, you know, you know, turn this cycle, you know, into something far shorter. And whether that be, you know, that the biggest one being liquidity reversal, like if we start to see central banks not lowering rates or you know, inflation starts to happen and then, you know, Jerome's like, oh no, you know, we're starts talking more bearish. There's regulation. I don't think that's a big one, especially while Trump's in the seat. But it is one to be aware of. But then the other one is just, you know, yeah, global recession and bigger global economic risk is probably the biggest one I see.

It's always a risk and it's good to highlight those because they're the things that people need to be aware of in the current conditions. I don't see many of those happening and we'll let you know if they are as Benberg's listeners. And just to recap where we're at, like Bitcoin's 8 1/2% away from all time high. ETH is 14% away from an all time high. You know, like we BNB four and a half percent, Solana even more 25%. We start to go out to, you know, layer one altcoins we just need to realize where we're at and I think there's still a lot of this cycle left. And when I think back to previous cycles where you had, you had like colored coins and you had ICOs and then you had NFTs, these crazy gambling machines that really drove retail and gave us those huge, huge euphoric highs. We had a like slight bit with meme coins, but it was nothing like we had previously. And there's not too much in the market. People are talking about airdrops and defi season. We're expecting a metamask drop and a few other ones as well. I don't think that's going to drive insane behavior like it did in 2017 and 21. Like, I see this as being very structured. There are a lot of opportunities, but I don't see the catalyst for that Massive, massive euphoria. I see it's just grinding higher and higher and I just love to see it.

Yeah, totally.

This is the kind of market structure that I want where there's still things have been de risked and there's still significant gains to be had.

Yeah, it's a, it's much more mature market. So bullish on the head for us. You know, as always, like there's so many things, so many things that could change and ultra. And that's, you know, that's the beauty of crypto. Anything can change. But like right now, institutional adoption, expanding global liquidity, you know, dollar weakness, like, you know, people are, some people are thinking this is not a great bull market because their altcoins aren't 10xing well unfortunately those days are over. F, like that's not a reality anymore. We're structuring and positioning into assets that we think have good returns without having to bet the farm and not have all this risk of trying to take higher risk investments on altcoins because reality is they're not winning right now. There's very few assets that are actually outperforming bitcoin. We've been very good at it so far this cycle. Probably one of our best in terms of this cycle not performing like the last. So you've got to update your strategy. You've got to think about this market is a more mature investment class now in my opinion. You know, and that's how we think about it. To, to really grow your wealth.

Absolutely. And even some of like, you know, the.

More risky plays we've had, we've already harvested a lot of wins from those and we're either up significantly with positions we've still got left or playing with house money. Like that's the level that we're playing at and what we're seeing in the market. It's just a great position to be in. And a lot of people say like, you know, even big guys like Raoul Paul where it's like you got five years, don't it up. Like you still have time to get this right. You are not late. People don't understand this. You're weird for listening to this podcast, right? Recognize where you're at, how far ahead you are and be kinder to your future self. In two, three, four, five years, what is that person going to need and what can you do today to help that future version of yourself?

Oh, love that. First thing Bergs our listeners need to do is check out our new training we just launched. So we're going to put in the link below. If you're on your phone, if you're on YouTube, wherever you are. We've put together a free 20 minute training that goes through the most important parts of getting your strategy right. So if you've been on one of our masterclasses before, this is kind of like a condensed version. There's seven steps, the process. I talk about three ways to grow your portfolio. I go through three of the seven steps that are most important to get right. And I go through my story and how I've kind of developed my portfolio and how we think about a collective shift on that training as well. There's a little bit more about how we can work together. There's so many Benneberg's listeners that come across and realize that today's the day, now's the time. You've got a, you know, you've got a buyer's agent for your property, you got a financial advisor for your stocks, you know, but you've got some crypto bro on YouTube you listen to for your crypto. If you're busy and you and you overwhelmed and you need support, guidance, you want an expert team by your side. That training video will go through the basics. But then I'll also share with you how we work with our clients and talk through the program a little bit more. Check it out. There's so many, as I said, so many listeners that have come across and really, really, you know, enjoyed it. So yeah, please check it out. I think it would be a really good time before this bull market really kicks in. The gear to get it right.

It's important. Just click that link. Even if you've been in crypto for A while just to make sure that you've thought things through. Because there are quite a few steps even I highlighted with you, Ben. We're like, oh shit, what about this? And we've built that into that process and it's completely free to just spend 20 minutes of your time, go through it and go, yep, I already know all this. Great. Or hey, I need to do a bit more. And when you do a bit more, all that stuff's available for free on our website. You can just go for it, right? Go and have a good time. And if you want more analysis and research, you can sign up to Pro. And then if you want a one on one with one of the teams that Ben has trained and you want to jump into the sessions that Ben has in our WhatsApp group, then consider Platinum. Yeah, but honestly, we've created this for free and you can go at your own pace. I at least please do that check, make sure you've considered everything because we just want you to win whether you're a customer or not. We're just trying to make people like understand crypto, help you with your investments, get rich and just be a good crypto citizen. Right. Like all that is available for free.

Check it out. It's not email gate, it's not anything, it's just a, it's a free video. Obviously if you want to check out our services, you just click the link and you can have a call with one of our team. But the rest is free, so check it out. And yeah, just thanks for being on the journey. Bergs and I were just having the, the numbers just before the podcast has really grown. So, so cool. Exciting. We're getting anywhere between 600 to a thousand downloads, you know, across platforms with YouTube every single episode, which is wild to think.

And then yeah, all the threads we're getting, you get like 100,000 views on a thread and then which is just mental where it's like Ben and Berg's clips that are chopped up and a couple of thousand views on the shorts. It's like it's going really well. So mate, loving it.

Happy days. Well, thanks so much for listening everyone. If you enjoy the podcast, we'd love for you to share it with a friend or family member. Jeez, I'm losing my words here. Share it around. It's how we grow the podcast each and every week. And may the green candles be with you. Thank you, Bergs.

Thanks champions.