90. 5 Reasons A Crypto Bull Market Could Return Next Year Which People Aren't Talking About.
28 Aug 2023 · 13 min
Podcast episode by Ben Simpson and Bergs arguing there are at least five underappreciated catalysts that could drive a crypto/bull market within 12–24 months: (1) Elon Musk’s X app integrating payments and crypto; (2) Jack Dorsey’s Spiral building self-custodial wallets, Lightning infrastructure and a more distributed Bitcoin miner; (3) Tesla potentially reinstating BTC payments as mining becomes greener; (4) the rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) potentially strengthening demand for Bitcoin as a privacy-preserving, non-sovereign store of value; and (5) growing crypto exposure from major non-crypto corporations (PayPal, Microsoft, Nvidia, Visa, Mastercard, Goldman Sachs, Block, CBOE, MicroStrategy, Tesla). The hosts emphasize halving and a possible spot Bitcoin ETF as major catalysts as well and present a generally bullish outlook.
Questions this episode answers
August 28, 2023
New Hampshire, Michigan, Arizona, and Missouri
They cite the Bank for International Settlements claim that 93% of banks are exploring CBDCs.
261 million citizens
Tesla stopped accepting Bitcoin in May 2021 and said it would reinstate payments once 50% of Bitcoin's energy sources are renewable.
Chapters
Do you want to live in this future where you can be told where to spend your money, or the government sent you some money, or you got your paycheck, you have to spend it in the next 15 days? No, after this, I'm going to go buy some more bitcoin. Ben.
Welcome back to another episode of the Ben and Berks podcast. I am Ben, your favorite high school dropout and CEO of Collective Shift, alongside Ms. Bergs, your favorite MBA and COO of Collective Shift, Australia's leading crypto portfolio insights company, providing professional analysis and portfolio strategies for crypto investors like you. We are a unique blend of the established and the self made and we're here to break down crypto business and personal growth. But we don't just talk shit. We give you the insights you need to make better investments, build successful businesses and level up your life. And today we're talking about five reasons why we believe we're going to have a bull market in the next 12 to 24 months that you don't know about. And when it comes down to the two major catalysts for a bitcoin bull run, we always think of the halving. So sorry, every. Every four years we think of the halving as the reason why we're going to have a bull run. This time around we've also got the SEC potential approval of a spot ETF with BlackRock coming in and there's a bunch of other ETFs going to come in. I think that's going to open up a huge amount of new capital. But we also like to look at some other catalysts that may spark a bull market. When you put all these together, where the market is right now, I think we have a pretty positive outlook. How are you, bugs?
I'm really well, mate. And I agree, like we all look to the halving, but there is a lot happening in the background. These are going to be the top five reasons that we're going to bring to your attention. I've read through these and after this I'm going to go buy some more bitcoin.
Ben, I've been telling you every week, man, you want to buy some more bitcoin. But you know, hopefully after this, this might be the episode.
I've sorted it out, mate. It's happening.
Oh really? We're on. Okay.
Yeah, we're on, mate.
We can update about that later. Number one, Elon Musk's new everything app, sports crypto. So as we all know, Twitter has previously also recently renamed to the X app and early last month Twitter Payments LLC received approval to serve as a money transmitter in the US through the states of New Hampshire, Michigan, Arizona and Missouri. Musk has said previously that X, formerly Twitter, will integrate deeper payment support as part of the plan to transform X into the Everything app. Given Elon's openness to crypto, particularly dogecoin.
He has also added that recently to his X Bio. Cryptocurrency may very well play a role in X Payments plan. So we know that Elon's trying to build like the WeChat, the Chinese or Everything app in the Western world. I think if anyone can do it, it's going to be Elon, and I definitely think that this could be a possibility. Now, I think he came out and Twitter recently that he has no plans of creating his own token on the X apps. They're not going to be some sort of X token. So leads me to believe that there's going to be an integration of some description. Maybe it's Lightning Network, maybe it's Doge, maybe it's Bitcoin, who knows? But definitely I can see the vision that he's got here, where you get. You're making payments real time on the. On the X app, and I definitely think crypto is going to play a part in that.
Exactly. And Elon and the rest of the guys in the PayPal mafia, they tried to create cryptocurrency from the start. If you look at what they were trying to create and how they went about it, they hit a lot of regulations, they ended up with PayPal. Now he's expanding on that. Look at WeChat. Brilliant model. And what they do is they like WeChat. Okay. People use our app for three hours a day. Fantastic. What do they do the other four hours, five hours, six hours, they wake up, they need something, they go shopping, they need something, there's entertainment, they need something. And creating that all in one app, I think is a brilliant move. And then adding additional payment sources in there because we're moving more and more digital. We why do I always have to pay in dollars? Can I pay in, like, Amazon gift cards or Bitcoin or whatever, Whatever payment people will accept? Absolutely brilliant idea. And this will really spur things forward because we already use Twitter and it's just going to enable payments through it.
And I think what's probably stopping it right now is the custodial and the ability to do it. Here's a hot tip for you. Jack Dorsey's coming out, which we're going to talk about now. Number, number two, Jack Dorsey has is building a bitcoin product that is yet to be revealed. Now I think these two are correlated, right? One of the least talked things about the potential bitcoin catalyst is the innovative products being developed by Jack Dorsey, the previous founder of Twitter. Not previous, the founder of Twitter and he spin off bitcoin focused company Spiral. So Spiral is building self custodial hardware, wallet and lightning network infrastructure. And it's also got another unreleased product at Bitcoin Miner that's most intriguing. On While details are light, Spiral's Miner is said to be more distributed, efficient and user friendly than existing mining hardware and software. Spiral expects the products to launch early next year. Dorsey believes mining centralization is one of Bitcoin's weaknesses due to the high barriers to entry. Hot tip Jack Dorsey, Elon coming together and once Jack Dorsey has his new Custodial Wallet out integration with Twitter and we've got a new bitcoin product on X app. Thoughts?
All right, I love that. And now I want you to add in the next one that was under Elon's everything app. Okay?
Yep. Number three. Tesla reinstates payment support for BTC Bitcoin, another of Musk's companies. Tesla stopped accepting payments in Bitcoin in May 2021 due to environmental concerns and promised to reverse this once 50% of Bitcoin's energy sources are renewable.
What we've noticed here is a clear shift in attitude surrounding Bitcoin's mining environmental impact as more miners adopt renewable energy sources. The longer this trend continues, the more likely Tesla is to reinstate support for bitcoin payments such as decision could cause bitcoin to climb higher. So you've got the triple whammy X app, Tesla and Dorsey coming together. And you've got the new PayPal stablecoin which also could play a part. It's also lining up.
This is incredible. And creating new miners and putting them in things even Michael Saylor talks about. What if he talks about like Level Fours, what if you have a product with bitcoin inside it like a Tesla or something that mines bitcoin or does transactions or approve them, what would that look like? And we're starting to see more and more people move towards bitcoin. It's almost every day in the news, another company, another entity, more people are buying it. ETFs we're putting into products now. We're making it easier to mine and understand. We're moving away from this really, really technical, annoying, nerdy thing that very few people understand to. Hey, I Just use it in my app, which is a huge, huge trend and a huge step for cryptocurrency.
Totally. Agreement. Could definitely see the X app building here now. Number four, the dystopian central bank digital currency CBDCs to actually benefit Bitcoin. So as we know, there's a huge difference between CBDCs and Bitcoin. And the shift towards countries exploring these CBDCs, which are basically new forms of digital money, is potentially a positive. So according to the bank of Institutional, sorry, the bank of international settlements, 93% of banks are exploring CBDCs. But basically every bank is looking at this. And Russia recently signed a bill that allows it to issue its own. So while the jury's still out on potential benefits of CBDCs, more countries will likely follow the lead of China, where 261 million citizens in China have already joined their CBDC pilot test. So the dystopian case for CBDCs are real. It's possible that some central banks will have the ability to program CBDCs to incentivise and punish certain behaviors. For example, certain parts of China have tested time limited CBDCs where the money expires if not spent within a given time frame, effectively creating a new stimulatory tool for central banks. Have you seen that movie where they've got the time on the arm and it's a time clock like that's.
Yes, that's what it feels like. Time with Justin Timberlake.
Yeah.
One of the best movies out there, right? This, the morals that it has in it and how you understand your time is your most, you will understand time is your most valuable asset, mate. Okay, do you want to live in this future where you can be told where to spend your money, or the government sent you some money or you got your paycheck, you have to spend it in the next 15 days? Fuck no.
And, and, and I can probably also control where you spend it. And, and I just want to finish off here bugs by just saying CBDCs aren't a positive in my opinion. But the adoption of CBDCs we hope will elevate the appreciation of why bitcoin is so important, which isn't owned by anyone that can't be controlled or change and cannot be had. These, you know, expiry things or this, you know, supervision over the, over the asset, over the currency.
It's a scary future. Banks already have a lot of power and money, right? And they're controlling it more then the government. They always want to know where the money is. So they get even more oversight and control. Now they have digital controls, they have programmatic controls. You are getting less and less privacy and rights. People don't understand privacy. Privacy, privacy should be on by default. It should not be something I need because I'm doing something wrong. No, no one should have the right to know what I am doing. Right. We have law enforcement and they have rights and like they have laws in order to, you know, keep us all safe. And it generally works. This is just the scariest future that I could think of. And it just sounds like the biggest control and the biggest scam and the way out is Bitcoin. Yeah.
CBDCs do not.
They aren't in competition with bitcoin. They're completely different. It's like, you know, yeah, it's, it's, it's comparing apples and oranges. It's two, two completely separate things. So when people say, does Will CBDCs, you know, impact the, you know, the adoption of bitcoin? Well, well, yes it will. And, and I think in a positive way because it's completely different. You know, CBDCs are a stable coin. They're, they're just another form of money that's controlled by the bank and the central bank. Bitcoin is a volatile asset that you want to hold and store for a longer period of time because of the economics of a limited supply asset and what it can do to the global economy.
Yeah. And like I just thought of a very simple analogy. It's like imagine you've got cash, you're in America, you spend anywhere, you're in Australia, you spend anywhere and then you go to Disneyland, you go inside, you can't use your cash there. It just doesn't work. You have to change your cash, the Disney dollars and then everything's priced in Disney dollars. The prices can be crazy. They can choose how valid that is if it only lasts for that day next year they'll change their currency next year it's one Australian dollar for 50 cents worth of Disneyland currency. They own and operate that it is their rules. And let's level that up again. They can see exactly where you're spending it, who's spending it, link it to your identity. It is just a very, very bad situation to be in.
Yeah, yeah, I totally agree. So we think that, you know, potentially coming up very soon is going to be potential, potential spur. And last but not least, number five, Bergs is the growing list of non crypto companies that now have crypto exposure either through investments, partnerships or side ventures. Now this is Just a list I grabbed, but there's more to this list. But these are the big dogs. PayPal, Microsoft, Nvidia, Visa, Mastercard, Goldman Sachs block, CBOE, MicroStrategy, Tesla. These are some of the biggest companies in the world that are gaining momentum. The biggest one, most recently PayPal, launching their own stablecoin in coming to the table in this landscape. And the more that these bigger institutions come and build products that are safer investors and showcase the value of where this industry is going, the easier it's going to be for other people to build and the, the loosening of the grip I think the SEC will have because they're seeing some of the biggest players in the world join this space.
Exactly. And if you want to know more on this, have a look at Michael Sailor talking about the treasury problem. So all these companies are holding part of their balance sheet in bitcoin because it solves the treasury problem for them. This is huge if big companies are getting into it. And think about it, Ben. You're a big company, you got shareholders, you've got all this intricacy, all this regulation, and you've gone out and you said, we're going to buy bitcoin. Imagine the hoops you have to jump through to do that. Not only the physical ones and custody and everything, but convincing your board, convincing your shareholders. On and on it goes that put in all that effort over multiple years to do this thing. Step back and ask yourself, why are they doing this thing and why now? And what will result after more companies follow these leaders?
Yeah, spot on, man. So, look, the future looks positive for bitcoin. You know, beyond the halving and a possible spot ETF approval, there are several other potential catalysts that we think a lot of people are not thinking about. And it's always worth acknowledging. That's why I've done this episode when markets acquired. A lot of this stuff doesn't really make the news. So stepping back, you know, we really believe that bitcoin and crypto will continue to earn legitimacy and become more widely accepted. And we see that through everything that's happening this year. So it's exciting times. We have some, well, I mean, the two biggest catalysts, right, the bitcoin ETF and the halving we did include, but we've got those as well. So We've got there 7 pretty big catalyst bergs for what's going to be hopefully an exciting 2024.
That's right. And Michael, Michael Saylor puts this best. He's accumulating a lot of bitcoin in his company because everyone else is coming and they will want it. And for all the listeners out there, people are coming for your bitcoin. They will want it. The demand is going to be insane, as well as your other cryptocurrencies as well. So accumulate that, hold that, and you will be rewarded and you'll be paid a price premium because everyone is coming for your crypto.
Amazing. Let's wrap it there. Come on. The bull market.
Bring it on.
Thank you everyone for listening. We'd love for you to share this with a friend if you if you found it valuable. It's how we grow the podcast. We're loving all the engagement we're getting. Thank you so much for the feedback. We continue to iterate and hopefully this is bringing value to you, as always. Yeah. Please share it with a friend, family member, someone that's investing in crypto that might find a valuable. If you'd like to follow us online, Twitter is the best place. You can follow bergs@babybackberg on Twitter and you can follow me @bensimpsonau. And you can also follow our podcast, Twitter, where you get all our clips and reels at Ben and Bergs on Twitter. Bergs, thank you so much, man. I'll see you next episode.
Thanks so much. Thanks for listening, champions. And I'm off to buy some more bitcoin.