Ben Simpson delivers an informal YouTube market update diagnosing a mid-cycle correction in crypto. He reports Bitcoin has broken the ~$95,000 support level and that roughly $1.2 trillion of crypto market capitalization was erased in the prior 30 days. Simpson frames the move against uncertain macro tailwinds—liquidity has not turned and interest-rate-cut odds for December are about 50/50—then describes de-risking his portfolio by moving sizable cash into stablecoins and advising capital preservation and patience.
Questions this video answers
Approximately $95,000 (the 50-week moving average line).
About $1.2 trillion of crypto market cap erased over the last 30 days.
He described interest-rate-cut odds as roughly 50/50 for December.
He de-risked by moving a sizable amount of cash into stablecoins.
Chapters
We are now officially in a mid cycle correction for crypto. It's something that has been on the cards for now a little while and we officially now broken through that 95, 000 level. The line and trend we've been looking at, which is essentially the 50 week moving average. Now where we are right now is this mid cycle correction. Now we can kind of go either way from here. One, we've already wiped out $1.2 trillion of the market cap of crypto the last 30 days. You know, relative to previous cycles. That's actually quite consistent. The thing that's different this cycle is that the things and the tailwinds we've been looking for haven't quite come to fruition yet. Like liquidity turning. Interest rate cuts are now 5050 for December and Trump is losing a little bit of popularity around the midterm. So with the uncertainty in play there is a likelihood now that we could potentially go into, you know, a short term, multi month bear market. And on the upside, if we do have liquidity turn, you know, the market could return, you know, above that $95,000 level. But for the short term, you know, altcoins aren't looking that pretty. So I have de risked my portfolio. I shared all these updates with my clients over the last few weeks and more importantly, you know, early in the week made a pretty sizable adjustment to my portfolio to de risk moving a lot of cash into stable coins right now and, and waiting to see how this plays out. Very still very bullish on, you know, the fundamental projects that we've been invested in. However, right now is not the time to be cute, not the time to be stuffing around. You want to preserve capital and be ready for the next leg and wait for conditions to, to change up side or downside. If we go to the downside, it's going to be an amazing time to accumulate. But in the meantime, not trying to be cute and that's where we are right now. You got to play the market as it comes.
