In this market commentary, the presenter explains the recent broad risk‑off sell‑off affecting Bitcoin, equities, precious metals and other risk assets. Bitcoin has slipped below $70,000 into the low $60,000s, with over $2 billion of leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours. The speaker attributes the turmoil to a mix of macro‑political uncertainty (e.g., US political dynamics), AI‑driven tech stock weakness, and a severe liquidity crunch that is forcing capitulation similar to past cycles (2018‑19, 2022). Technical analysis shows Bitcoin’s RSI at multi‑year lows, the 50‑week moving average broken, and a 55‑% correction in line with historical 50‑70 % pullbacks. Portfolio strategy advice is provided: shift to defensive positions, reduce altcoin exposure, move capital into stablecoins, and only retain fundamentally strong altcoins such as Hyperliquid, which has outperformed Bitcoin YTD due to real revenue from tokenized gold/silver trading. The presenter warns that most altcoins will underperform during capitulation but may shine when liquidity returns. Long‑term outlook emphasizes Bitcoin as “hard money” and a hedge against inflation and sovereign debt, noting that corrections are normal and that dollar‑cost averaging during deep dips can build a solid long‑term stack. The four‑year cycle is discussed, with the current bear market expected to be shorter due to institutional liquidity, regulatory clarity (e.g., the Clarity Act), and ETF inflows. The video concludes with a call to action for viewers—especially high‑net‑worth or new investors—to access the presenter’s research, portfolio alerts, and one‑on‑one advisory services via a link in the description.
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Bitcoin has continued to drop below 70,000 into the low $60,000 range. Over $2 billion worth of leverage positions wiped out over the past 24 hours. And stock markets, precious metals, everything is selling off at the moment. What is happening, what's going on? If you've been sidelined, waiting to get into crypto, is this the time to start accumulating and building up your bitcoin stack? And for those of you that have been in crypto for a long time, what to do with your portfolio, how to best position it for what's to come and, and what's saying and what's looking at the charts to see exactly what's happening and why this sell off is occurring and when will it end and what's going to. So let's jump into it. What is happening right now with the first thing I want to share, this is a bit of an update I made to my members today. Essentially this isn't just crypto, right? We are seeing this across the board, right? If we scroll down and see here literally zooming out and seeing across all risk assets, at the moment we are seeing, you know, Netflix down 40%, Palantir down 36%. Microsoft, one of the biggest companies in the world, down 27%. Amazon had their, their earnings call last night down I think 13 or 14% in 24 hours. Absolutely unheard of. So, you know, the last 24 hours have been absolutely wild for not only crypto, but stock markets abroad. And this is just forced unwinding that's going on across the board. We're seeing a broad risk off environment. Why? Well, there's very few buyers stepping in, there's a lot of uncertainty and really, you know, the, the what's happening in the US with, you know, Trump losing a little bit of his, you know, I guess his momentum or power. We're seeing AI really start to come in and, you know, just wipe out a lot of these tech stocks. And you know, a lot of people are just very scared and uncertain, especially when you get silver down 40% in, in a week. That's absolutely unheard of. It's never happened before in history. Gold is also selling off. The volatility has been absolutely wild now in bitcoin. You know, we are seeing the RSI down to levels not seen since 2022. All right? The sell off has been very, very hard and strong. And you know, where this level, I guess, of unrealized losses has been is in line with previous cycles like 2018, 2019 and even 2022. Which was back in the capitulation down to three and a half thousand. The capitulation in the COVID era and then the FTX collapse as well. We're seeing that real capitulation right now. And you know, we are really in that second phase now of selling. And you know, the broader context is really important because structurally we have seen this many times before. But you know, this is, it's been something we've been looking at for a long time. So what you can see here is the green line is the 50 week moving average. This is, you know, broke back through late last year. All right, and this was an update we made to our members back here. This was back in October that the outlook had really changed. We had to really flip to that risk on off mode. And we sold a lot of our altcoin positions back then. And then it continued to break through as we broke that support band. And this like that support trend has been, you know, consistent one you know, for, you know, right back into the middle of 2023, that 50 week moving average. So this was a key level that we, you know, reduced our risk exposure. And then again at the 100 week moving average here, this was the one that then broke through at the start of this year. Now really important to know that we have seen a number of these portfolio rebalances and shifts in what's happening in the market that you need to be a cross of. I've seen people in the past that continue to hold on to altcoins and don't make changes when the market moves. That is the wrong thing to do, guys. It's really important that I made that mistake when I first started back in 2017, 2018, getting into crypto, just thinking all these altcoins will continue to go up. You know, yes, 2025 was looking like a solid year, but things change. All right, and this is an update we made back in December 21st when we moved fully defensive, sold the remaining of, you know, our altcoin, majority of our altcoin exposure and went heavy into stable coins. And then what happened in, in January, if you remember, you know, it was only a few weeks ago, we had this breakout where we had this fake, fake move to the upside. And a lot of people got really excited here. All right, A lot of people got really excited. We had this move, we sort of chopping sideways 80, 80, 90,000 and we had this move to 97,000 and a lot of people bought back in, getting super, very, you know, super excited. And you know, FOMO hit Again. And, you know, once again we held strong. And the reason we held strong is because optimism is good, but confirmation is better. All right? And we really flagged that exposure risk because this is where there was that dead cat bounce we saw. And. Well, wasn't dead cat bounce. We just had a fake, fake out. This is a bounce that a lot of people sold out of that alcoin positions. That was the right time to do it. And, you know, and then was being pretty much down only since then. All right, and then same in January 2014. This is only three or four weeks ago, you know, Bitcoin was 97,000. Opportunity to check that exposure and rebalance. All right, really important that consistent, like, narrative of like, you know, when bitcoin is going down, it doesn't matter how good altcoins are, is very hard to buck the trend. Now in saying that if we look at something like hyper liquid, Hyper liquid is being really very, very different than most altcoins. In fact, it's probably one of the only altcoins that's really outperformed, you know, bitcoin year to date. So if we go year to date and we also overlay bitcoin here, you know, hyper liquid, the reason why this has done so well for us is because it is actually generating real revenue. All right? Real revenue. It's actually, you know, it's a decentralized, decentralized, you know, liquidity provider, but also a decentralized exchange where, you know, people are using it to now trade gold and silver as an example, you know, tokenized gold and silver. And you can see here, you know, on this level, like bitcoin year to date down 27, you know, Hyperleigh was up 33, one of the only outliers. So you can, you know, find that some of these altcoins will outperform if they have those fundamental values. It's really important why fundamentally strong altcoins are in your portfolio and also continue to. Now, in saying that, you know, the point I'm trying to make here is when the market is in these, like, free falls, these capitulation, sort of liquidation downwards, you know, know, momentum, most of these old coins, 99% will continue to. To fail, all right? And fail in the sense of underperforming bitcoin. And it's important to be defensive. But when the market shifts and we start to get structured back higher, which we'll talk about in a second, you know, these altcoins that have fundamentally strong values, I believe will outperform. All right? So if you by the way, want access this research and you want these real time updates and portfolio alerts and you want to work with our team and you know, work one on one with me. There's a link in the description below. This is where we work with sophisticated investors, but also people that are new to crypto. There's a lot of clients are coming in right now wanting to get exposure. While the market sound great time, if you're new to crypto, to get exposure. There's a link in the description below. You can check out how we operate with people and if you've been sitting on the sidelines, you know, when there's blood in the streets, it's, it's always a good time to jump in. Now what is the real drivers for what's going to happen and what's going to drive us back? Well, really the core driver for me for here is liquidity. All right, looking into the remainder 2026. You know, Bitcoin is hard money, all right, We've seen these corrections many times before. Again, if you're new to crypto, it can be hard to stomach the volatility. But if we look over the last eight years, even 10 years of Bitcoin, time and time again, we see these big corrections. All right, and if I move, if we move to the weekly chart here, all right, 50 to 70% corrections are really normal. And that can be very scary if you're new to crypto. But it's very important that you understand that volatility is a part of the game. You can't expect all the upside and not expect the pain in the downside. And it can be a lot to stomach. All right, but you can see here, you know, back in 2021, we had a, from top to bottom, 79% correction. You know, as of where we are now, we're a bit over 55% correction. You know, coming into those support levels, I do expect we'll get to a bounce soon. But you know, these 55% corrections are pretty normal. Even if you go right back to 2017, very normal. Again, to see an 80% correction in Bitcoin, why does that happen? We get a lot of leverage flush outs, you get a lot of confidence that loses 83%. A lot of things that, you know, people start to get scared and worried and panicked and then you just get this fuel full capitulation to the downside. And that is what drives opportunity for newcomers, but also to build your long term stack. Like I think these levels are great for your long term bitcoin stack, if you start to dollar cost average, not throw it all in at once. But once we start to get the liquidity continuing to come back, the US Government is in huge amounts of debt, inflation is out of control, we're seeing big devaluations in stocks. Where do you put your capital? For me, it continues to be Bitcoin. All right. It was just only three or four weeks ago Bitcoin was at 97,000. It's the same asset here at 65, 70 or even 60. Right. So if you are wanting to build those long term stacks, lower your average buy price, really great time in my opinion to start to do that. And if we continue to get this regulatory clarity, such as the Clarity act, this is huge for, you know, the banks, institutions to continue to come in. We've seen, you know, grayscale continue to refer this as, you know, that beginning of that institutional era. We get that as liquidity expands. Crypto historically done really well. Now the four year cycle as well has been a question I get constantly like, you know, is the four year cycle has it just played out like, you know, everyone was expecting? And you know, it's interesting, right, because if you look at the chart, yes, you know, it has rhymed the last, you know, four years in terms of the top of the cycle being Q4 of that calendar year. However, the bear market has been reduced every single time. All right, so if you look here back in 2017-2021, all right, the peak took a little over two year, sorry, a little over three years to be reclaimed. All right, this year in the, in the cycle of 2021-24, you know, during that cycle the bear market was only two years to take from all time highs back to break even. All right, I expect that to be again reduce this cycle because the institutional flows, liquidity, it's a, it's a forecast that we have. Again, history gives us context, but not certainty. And yes, I believe this cycle is different and it's driven increasingly off liquidity, increasingly off macro landscapes, you know, political landscapes, ETFs, institutions. And that's also a shared sort of viewpoint as a couple of crypto wealth managers like Bitwise and Grayscale. So to the four year cycle, yes, the top of the cycle has been similar, but I don't believe it has been because of the same reasons as we've seen in previous cycles, which is really important. Now again, markets in crypto, particularly where we are right now, they reward, you know, stability, confidence and not emotional. Right. Try not to predict the bottom of the market, top of the market is very hard to do. This phase is very difficult. All right, it is, it's meant to be difficult. And you know, I want to continue to update you based on conditions as they change and optimize. But these are, can be very scary times if you, if you haven't written this out before. I've been here a number of times before. All right. And if you're new to crypto, you know, when there's blood in the streets in any market, it can be a good time to start to think about, you know, accumulating and building up that portfolio. So make sure you're doing all right, you know, stay protected and, you know, if you are a high net worth investor and sophisticated investor and you're interested in, you know, seeing and getting access to our data and our insights that we work with thousands of others across the world, there's a link below, you can check that out. Otherwise, thank you all. Leave a comment if you enjoyed the video and we'll see you on next one.
