Crypto Is Going To Be CRAZY In 2024

Ben Simpson (Collective Shift) outlines 10 research-backed predictions for cryptocurrency in 2024. Key claims: the April 2024 Bitcoin halving will drive major price appreciation (historical post-halving gains cited) and likely lead to new all-time highs in 2024 supported by macro easing and Bitcoin ETFs; the US will clarify crypto regulation and target a DeFi blue-chip; stablecoins will rebound to record volumes and enable payments; Ethereum's Q1 'Danksharding' (referred to as "Dan Kun" upgrade) will boost Layer-2 scaling and lower fees, reigniting interest in ETH and altcoins; crypto gaming and Web2 studios entering Web3 will accelerate; many Layer-1s will struggle due to competition; retail FOMO will follow all-time highs; AI will integrate with crypto (agents paid in crypto, tokenized AI datasets/services); social/blockchain-based social apps will gain traction; and Maple Finance (a Sydney-based DeFi lending project) is highlighted as a favored investment.
Chapters
This is probably the most important video I will publish on this YouTube channel. Not just because I'm in a fancy studio doing content, but because this is the efforts of the whole collectorshift team coming up with research backed insights for what 2024 will hold. 2023 was massive, but 2024 post the Bitcoin halving will be absolutely groundbreaking. And we've put together our top research backed predictions to share with you so you can win in 2024. So I covered the real consequences of the bitcoin halving in another video which you can go check out where I go deeper on exactly what the bitcoin halving actually means to the market. But my prediction, the number one for 2024 is the price action after the bitcoin halving. Now what is the bitcoin halving? Well, really quickly it's when the supply of bitcoin that comes into circulation from the miners reduces by half. And every time we've had a bitcoin halving event over the last three cycles, Bitcoin Bitcoin has run up 8,000%, 500% and more recently 300%. And I fully expect this to happen once again after the bitcoin halving this time around. Now the pico top of crypto bull markets historically is 12 to 16 months after the bitcoin halving event. This bitcoin halving being April 2024 puts us somewhere around mid 2025 to late 2025. Prediction number two is I expect bitcoin to hit all time highs in 2024. One of the biggest reasons is due to the hazy macro environment we are seeing the US economy continue to push towards a and I believe the Fed will start to print money as we head into 2024. That is only going to fuel bitcoin and risk on assets. Remember right back to why bitcoin was even created in the first place. There is a fail safe. As the banks continue to be bailed out as they cannot manage their funds and more and more money gets lost in the economy, we believe that more banks will continue to fail and there'll be more problems in the banking system. As nothing has changed over the last 15 years. And it was one of the biggest reasons why bitcoin was created. And if you didn't know 15 years ago when Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin, he actually implanted news article piece in the first ever block of bitcoin. And you can see the headline here. Pretty funny. If you look at the news headlines now, they are eerily similar. Fifteen years later, the banking system has not improved. In fact, it's getting worse and fiat currencies continue to be devalued. And that's why Bitcoin is going to be such a huge component in the world over the coming few years. Another part of this prediction is around the Bitcoin etf. The amount of capital that this is going to allow new inflows into the space is ginormous. The biggest problem with Bitcoin and crypto right now is it's so hard for institutions to get access to the asset and custody and store that themselves. This new access to Bitcoin through this ETF is going to allow billions of dollars of inflows into Bitcoin and buying real world assets. And that's what's really going to push the price up. The Bitcoin ETF is also going to play a huge part in legitimizing Bitcoin and crypto as a sector where people should be storing their assets as a safe store of value. There's been so many problems in the cryptocurrency sector over the last couple of years from individuals doing bad things, but the underlying asset is still the underlying asset and it has had no problems. And I think the Bitcoin ETF is really going to solidify that prediction. Number three is that the US gets some clarity on regulation in 2024 and a DeFi blue chip project starts to get regulated. And I think this is something we've been screaming at for so long. The US seems to be so slow behind other places like Europe and the Middle east which are continuing to push out regulation. It's been a big component. That's why the defi sector has gone so much in the bear market. I'm a huge believer in defi and I think the regulation that's going to come out is going to provide more clarity for these projects to continue to go up and allow more projects to build in a more clear environment. Just look at the nasdaq for example, that pulled out of their cryptocurrency project due to the lack of clarity and regulatory clarity that it had. I don't think it's all going to be smooth sailing though. The US continues to put out new regulations and they've made it very crystal clear that even defi projects must play by the rules. So I believe a big defi blue chip will be in the sights of the SEC in 2024. And I one of them is probably going to be regulated and the rules will become clear for the rest of the ecosystem. Prediction four is that stablecoins have truly bottomed and they continue to push to all time high volumes. Stablecoins are starting to become amongst the ecosystem as one of the most truly beneficial use cases for cryptocurrency. Coinbase recently came out with a new way that we can send people money through stablecoins just through using a link. So I can send money anywhere in the world using Stable coins. All they need is the Coinbase app with no fees or even some applications like the Stables app. I had the Stables app on my phone where I can now spend stablecoins anywhere in the world. I recently went to a coffee shop where I spent stablecoins from my phone and the merchant receives fiat currency. So the merchant now doesn't need to receive crypto, but I can spend crypto. As you can see here, the stablecoin market cap continues to grow and I fully expect this to hit all time highs in 2024 as more people are adopting this new technology and this new ability to send money seamlessly. Prediction number five is that Ethereum comes back in the spotlight as we head towards the bitcoin halving in 2024 with Ethereum going through a huge new upgrade in Q1 called the Dan Kun upgrade. This is a new upgrade Ethereum is going through which will allow scaling at even greater levels with cheaper fees. The amount of scaling that this is going to create is going to around 10 to 20x. If you're using something like Arbitrum, layer 2s will become even cheaper and faster to use and this upgrade is hugely going to make Ethereum more beneficial to use for projects top and I think this is going to be a narrative that's going to spin away from Bitcoin and back to Ethereum in 2024. So I think this is why Ethereum has lagged the market primarily in 2023 and I think it's going to come back in the limelight in 2024 and will start the generation of potentially what we'll see as an altcoin season. As you can see here on the chart, the median transaction fee for Ethereum and top scaling solutions is going to be far cheaper and scalable for the layer 2 solutions. Layer twos like Polygon, Arbitrum and Optimism are going to have huge increased scaling opportunities post this upgrade in Q1 and I think that's why the narrative is going to come back in 2024. So watch out for Ethereum. Prediction number six is we're going to see more AAA games And crypto native Games launch in 2024, which will continue the gaming narrative we've been so closely looking at. At 2023, 60% of all the funds raised in Web3 over the last two years have gone into crypto games. But they've been lagging because the games haven't been there and haven't been ready to launch. We're starting to see new games come out like Illuvium and Immutable X. Launching new games, and I think this is going to be a huge narrative for 2024. One of the things I'm most excited about is the new Web2 gaming studios coming into Web3 players like Zynga Games coming into Web3 and launching games that people actually want to play with NFTs and tokens built in so gamers can accrue that value and not lose it when they leave the ecosystem. This is such a cool way for gamers to actually create value in a game and potentially even make money from the investments they make in that game. The biggest problem with crypto gaming so far has just been the lack of usability, and it just really hasn't been fun to play. They've been too focused on the economics of the games and not the entertainment, and now we're starting to see that play out. We've done a really big deep dive on how to get exposure to crypto gaming. One of the biggest problems when investing in this space is that there's so many competitors. You've got the Web two games, you've got the Web three games, you've got the blockchains, you've got the tokens, the NFTs, all the individual games. There's so many horses in the race. And it's one of the reasons why I currently don't invest in the gaming sector is because it's going to be so hard to find the right projects that you think are going to win. But if you can maybe get a basket of games or look at the right infrastructure, you can really get on top of that narrative. Early prediction number seven is many of the layer ones in 2024 will continue to struggle and outperform the rest of the market. That's because out of the top 100, nearly 50% are layer 1s. The competition in the layer 1 space is ginormous, and there's so many runners in the race, there cannot possibly be that many layer ones that actually succeed. You've got Ethereum at the top and you've got so many other layer one solutions that people are chasing. I think it's good to think about in your portfolio about maybe having one, two or three just to diversify. But I think if you're holding a lot of layer ones and maybe some of the lower market cap layer ones, a lot of these are really going to struggle. Prediction number eight is I really think the bitcoin and crypto bull market is really going to kick off after we hit all time highs. I would expect the bitcoin price to potentially hit all time highs at some point in 2024. And if we do, I fully expect new retail interest to come in after that narrative starts to play out. What we're seeing right now is there is a lot of capital that's sl flushing around the industry. We're starting to see new retail investors come in, but nowhere near what we've seen in previous bull markets. But do understand that when we hit bull markets, and I fully predict this to happen again where there's going to be huge corrections, it's very common to see 10, 20, 30, 40% corrections in bull markets. It's important to understand this, not panic, sit and holding those assets and make sure you're riding and being patient in this bull market. So my prediction here for number eight is that I don't think the full wave of the retail market will come in until we hit all time highs. Prediction number nine is that AI in crypto will play, but probably not in the way that you think. It's been a huge narrative in AI, not only in crypto, but obviously everywhere over the last 12 or 24 months. But the narrative still out, in my opinion, for crypto and AI coming together. I think AI is still going to play a massive role within projects, helping them build better products and better solutions. But crypto AI tokens I'm not entirely sure of just yet. One of these predictions within AI is I believe that AI agents could even be paid within cryptocurrencies. So the AI bots are doing the work and they are being paid cryptocurrencies to those AI agents. Crypto could become a currency of choice for autonomous AI agents, which is kind of a cool idea to think about. And then the other side of AI is that I think most cryptocurrencies will tokenize and create markets to train and power different applications of AI. Several companies were founded in 2023, such as Ritual or Genesim. I predict we see many of these start to launch products and services in 2024. And prediction number 10, I believe social media blockchain applications will become more and more utilized in 2024. One of the biggest problems with these social media BL projects is that they have just not been easy enough to utilize. I think these will come back in 2024 as narratives come back about getting away from the centralized social media companies like Facebook and Twitter. Because if we take a step back, there is more of a trend going towards social media platforms giving back control and ownership to their users and creators. A perfect example of this is X with Elon Musk really going hard at offering more power, more control and more rewards for content creators to the X platform. And even now Elon Musk trying to turn X into a bigger hub of just Twitter, but into our financial and social hub teasing micro payments to creators. So I think this is another big narrative in 2024 and my final prediction for 2024, which is an absolute favorite project of mine and I do hold it in my portfolio, is a defi project based out of Sydney that's creating institutional lending and one of the only projects that made it through the bear market. I've got a super great tvl. Their products are leaning now on real world asset lending products and I believe this has got a great future ahead of them as they're not only focusing on web 3 but web 2 as well. The token as well really accrues a lot of the value with a lot of the interest being paid for the token as well as great staking rewards. And the project is doing a lot of great things and I think it's got a really clear roadmap ahead with very little competition. This project is Maple or Maple Finance, so check that one out as well as I think it's going to be a huge one in 2024. So there you have our predictions for 2024 not only from me, but our cryptocurrency analysts here at Collective Shift. I'd love to know what your predictions are by leaving them in the comments below. Let me know what you think is going to happen in 2024 and I'd love to see you on another episode. See you then.










