Short YouTube commentary by Ben Simpson arguing that cryptocurrency markets follow a predictable four-year psychological cycle tied to the bitcoin halving event. Simpson outlines the cycle phases: initial hope/disbelief, a 1–2 year euphoria leading to a blow-off top, a sharper 0.5–1 year bear market driven by fear to maximum fear, then disbelief and renewed hope as the cycle restarts.
Questions this video answers
Every four years.
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Everyone thinks that crypto acts completely randomly in the market, but actually it follows a predictable four year cycle that I'm going to share with you today. Based on human psychology. Markets are traders between buyers and sellers. There's not a simulation, there's buyers and sellers, which all comes back to humans. These are human markets. All right, it all tracks psychology. Now, crypto tends to run in four year cycles built around the bitcoin halving event. Every four years, the amount of bitcoin that is created halves. So recently we had the bitcoin halving event about here. This happens every four years. All right, at the start you've got the hope, all right, Phase. This is where people are hoping the market's gonna start to rally. We head into year two. This is when you start to see the euphoria. Alright, if I spell euphoria, right, this is when traders and investors start to get really excited as the market tends to go up. Now this could last anywhere between a year and two years, all right, this tends to last a year, year to two years. Once we have that blow off top. Now we're in the fear category. Alright, now this is where we're going into fear, fear, right? And then again, this is usually a sharper, all right, bear market. We tend to go down quite fast because we had that blow off top and we head down for maybe half a year to a year. Now this is maximum fear down below. And we start to go into this period of, you know, where are we? Is this even going to come back? We're not sure. We're so fearful that the market's going to be over and then you've got hope again. All right, it starts with disbelief.
Disbelief is when is this rally here, is this really a rally or is it going to be over? And then we go back into hope again. We go to the four year cycle and it starts again. That is the four year cycle. That is how crypto markets work. And it all comes back to psychology.
