Emergency Crypto Update: What on Earth is going on?!

The crypto markets and the wider stock markets are crashing and are in a complete free fall. The biggest sell off in crypto since COVID 2020. In a day, most crypto assets are down between 20 and 30% overnight. What on earth is going on? Why are we in freefall? Where are we going? How are we playing it? Should we buy the dip? Should we wait? Is the bull market over? There's so much confusion and chaos. I'm going to try and break it down for you today is what the hell is actually going on. I've been doing crypto full time now for eight years and I've seen a lot of these crashes over my journey and this is just another day in paradise in my opinion. And I really want to break it down because there's a lot of noise going on and really get to the point of that. This is not just crypto, guys, this is broader than crypto. We are seeing a huge momentum shift, I guess into the negative across the stock market, bond markets across the us, Japan, etc. I'm going to break down everything that's going on and ultimately answer the question of what, when to buy the dip, Will the bull market come back? Is it over? And where could we see the prices go for the remainder of this year and into next year? I'm going to answer all that today in this video for you. So let's jump into what's been going on. And the first thing to just really understand is that again, this is broader than just crypto. There's so much going on at a macro level that is impacting crypto and ultimately crypto just gets affected even worse. So the biggest thing that we've seen is that there is huge fears of the US going into recession. Now for a recession to occur you need two quarters of, of negative GDP or negative growth. And we have started to see that already. With the stock market really turning. The top seven stocks shaved over $500 billion overnight. And individually the stocks are, you know, the major stocks a lot of people have in their retirement funds and just generally in their stock portfolios are getting absolutely crushed. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, these major stocks down more than, mainly down more than 10% each overnight and over 500 billion getting wiped off, which is massive. But more importantly, Japan, which is the fourth largest GDP in the world, had their worst day on the stock market since the 1970s. They got absolutely annihilated and they actually saw a market halt or a trading halt on both the Japan and the Korean stock exchange, which was wild. We're also seeing the Middle east, the war intensifying over there. So there's, you know, concerns of a war going on, obviously recession. And then this trickled its way down into crypto and we saw a huge sell off. So Jump Trading, a large crypto firm inside the crypto industry, sold more than $37 billion of E today. They sold all of their positions on the spot market, which was crazy. So it just forced huge liquidations going on on one side. And you know, this amongst the, the US election race as well. Obviously a lot of people have been super bullish on Trump getting elected. He's.

Likelihood of being elected is down to its lowest of the last few months. So down at 53%. Still favoritism, but ultimately lots of going on. The biggest thing I just want to draw your attention to is that, you know, this chart here, hopefully you can see a little bit of this on the, in the purple. This was updated about a week or two ago. So the purple is the, this current bull market in terms of the drawdowns, this is actually closer to 35, 40 now from the peak. But this chart is really just to show you that corrections happen very, very often in bull markets. And in the last bull market on our way, from 3,000 to 70,000, Bitcoin went down 55% and 52% on its way up. And you know, during those times, everyone thought, you know, the world was ending and that the biggest one was the COVID 2020 crash when Bitcoin hit 10,000 and then dropped down to 5,000. The same fear, the same panic, the same emotions that you're probably fearing now about anger and, you know, maybe nausea is, you're feeling all these feelings about where the market's going and why isn't it going up are probably, you know, where you're at now. And for a lot of people, people sell down, they panic, they, they, they get scared and they sell down. And this was, you know, the fear and greed index, you know, just a bit of a meme, I guess, the fact that it's down to negative 14 ultimately that, you know, people are super scared. And this is where a lot of people sell off. They, they give up, they throw in the towel, they think crypto's over and this is where most people lose out. And you know, you know, I know it's probably, you know, maybe a little bit too early for some of you to think about buying this, buying this dip and thinking about getting in. And ultimately I'm not buying just yet. I think things could potentially get, you know, worse or trickle down over the next, you know, few days as we start to see how this plays out when the stock market opens tomorrow. The craziest thing for me is in the stock market world, they can just halt trading. It's just like they just remove the sell button. Like that's just, you know, that's just something they do to protect investors. But the reality is it's going to play out anyway because crypto is the most natural market that you can, you know, really get access to. In a sense, that trade 24 7, now the market trades 24 7. That's liquid as crypto. So we're seeing live this play out in all the fears, all the emotion, future projecting where the prices will go live. And this is where, you know, most people start to get super worried and sell down. Now I'm not selling anything. Fundamentally, for me, nothing's really changed. It's just a huge influx of the macro. And one thing that I wanted to just put to your attention here is just the chart of where we are now in this bull market compared to previous cycles. And you know, really when we get to, you know, previous peaks, especially the last two bull markets, after the bitcoin halving, it's been in the second year after the bitcoin halving, that would put us somewhere around, you know, middle to late next year. And, you know, on the way up, we have these huge corrections and again, back to the stock market. They literally manipulate the market in that they just stop, no selling, it's gone down too much. You can't sell anymore. Right. In crypto, it's 24 7. There's no intermediaries, there's no one stopping this. So when the market wants to dump, it's going to dump. And really for those that have been through these cycles, you know that this is what's required to actually make money in crypto. I think a lot of people get quite, I don't, I don't know what the word is, but they, they get, you know, this feeling that just by, because you're in crypto, you're just going to make money and it's just going to be super easy and straight up to the right. It's just not reality. Like, you know, crypto really is, is, is so volatile and, and so many different variables are impacted in why the prices go up or down. It's not just one reason, but, you know, you've really got to have the, the kahunas to hold on during these, these times of corrections. And I think is there's so many different voices as well. Like you go into Twitter or YouTube and there's just people putting out all sorts of nonsense, right? Going to zero bull markets over. Crypto's dead. Like it's just so many different opinions. And I think it's really important to remember that you know, fundamentally bitcoin especially is continuing to be one of the best assets that you can hold still. It's up 70% over the last year and more and more people, institutions are buying bitcoin to put on the balance sheet now, you know, in a huge sell off like we've seen today when we've seen the Japanese stock market lower since, lowest biggest sell off since 1970 or you see hundreds of billions of dollars sold off in the stock market. Of course crypto is getting impacted but in the past it probably would have been impacted even more. I know we're down 20, 25% but in the past this sort of level sell off probably, probably would have impacted more. 30, 40, 50%. So not to say that we haven't, you know, broken that correlation, but I definitely still think there's, there's somewhat level of, you know, de pegging that's going on now. How do I think it's going to play out? We'll come back to that is ultimately I think the, the bitcoin market, you know, what's going on now. There's been an emergency Fed being called, Fed meeting. So I think they're going to start to cut rates even sooner. Ultimately they're probably the only real way of getting out of this, you know, recession fees is to get the money printer going again which only going to cause more money to come into the, you know, into the economy and find its way into risk on assets. The balance sheet of the central bank will go up and it'll, it'll find its home in a risk on assets like, like bitcoin and crypto. Now when will that happen? Maybe later this year. You know, the next rate decision was going to be in September. Maybe we see that bring forward with the emergency one right now. But yeah, I think it's going to take a little while for this to play out. I'm not in any huge rush to buy the dip. I do think that, you know, where we are now in terms of prices is a pretty good opportunity to start dollar cost averaging if you have cash on the sidelines. Another thing that I like to look at is the MBRV ratio in terms of like, you know, when we might start to see you know a selling position or where we are in terms of the market. And basically this is just a ratio of, on chain of the market value of bitcoin of what you can pay for it right now, the price of bitcoin versus the realized value like the, the profit levels of owners of bitcoin and this, this average, like one do, sorry, one ratio about this mark here is usually a good indication of a selling position. Anything below that's a good buying opportunity. You can see at the moment it's really dived over the last few months since bitcoin sort of been trending downwards. But you know, for me, I still think we're gonna get a bit of a rally into the election later this year, depending on how the Trump sort of position goes. But really my, my viewpoint on this has been ultimately this is, this is the four year cycle playing out. We tend to see that the peak of a bitcoin cycle in that second year after the bitcoin halving, especially the last two cycles, the last one got cut off because of fdx and I think this one will happen again. So as we see increased liquidity, as we see central banks sort of firing out the printers again, I do start to see, you know, bitcoin and crypto returning now. What are the impacts in the short term? I mean, obviously if a war was to, to occur, you know, that's really not ideal. I think that would really, who knows what could happen, right? You know, God forbid that actually happens. But if it does happen, I do think these, you know, assets will probably sell off again. But you know, in the past, these buying opportunities, like I bought a lot in that dip from 10,000 out of 5,000 in the time, it felt very difficult and everyone sort of given up. But you look back and go, wow, like what a trade. And if you've got cash on the sidelines, I think those sort of decisions are going to be really profitable in the future. What assets would I be buying? Look, I'd probably be just sticking to bitcoin at the moment, maybe some eth, if you'd like. I think altcoins are going to, you know, they've already been hurt a lot, I think they're going to get hurt even more and probably going to just shake up a lot of the confidence in the market in terms of altcoins being pushed down. You can see that through the bitcoin dominance chart here. Bitcoin dominance going through the roof historically as well. This has been a turning point when bitcoin dominance has gone through.

Above that sort of 55, 60% level. That's usually been a turning point for altcoins to start to rally. Now this has probably been, you know, a point where in the past that Bitcoin's probably been, you know, in terms of percentage growth in the bull market, higher. Maybe it's a little bit different this time, but usually once bitcoin dominance gets around that 55, 60, we start to see a turning point for altcoins. In this circumstance, it could be a capitulation to the lows for, for altcoins. So, you know, overall, you know, these corrections again, like, I just want you to remember that step back and realize where we've come from. Bitcoin's up, you know, 70% Ethereum over the last 12 months. Ethereum. Ethereum still up 10, 15%. Yes. Not massive returns in crypto lens, but ultimately these markets are hugely volatile. There's a lot of traders, there's a lot of emotion. It trades 24,7. People get very fearful and they react very quickly. The best thing you can do as someone that's investing long term is just to sit back, remain patient, don't get too worried, don't get too caught up in the anger and the fear. There's a lot of chaos going on in the world right now and I think it's just really important to step back, go for a walk and remember why you're in crypto and remember that you're investing for the long term. If you are overexposed, you're probably going to be feeling, you know, fearful anger. Who knows what you're going to be feeling? You know, if you are concerned, there's nothing wrong with, with taking chips off the table if you want. You know, you're probably going to be selling at a loss, especially if you invested the last few months. If you're really feeling sick, you know, maybe that's something you should consider. But for most of you, hodling on is, is the best way to get through this and, you know, remembering that this is, this is normal. Right? If, if, if I was sitting here and crypto had never been down 50 or 70% before, probably be a different story. But this has happened time and time again in a bull market. And when you're getting these macro factors like the stock market selling off Japan and Korea, you know, stock exchange suspending trading, you know, the Middle east, you know, you know, potentially on the, on the verge of a war and recession, you know, fears in intact, like, you know, it is complete chaos when there's blood in the streets, it's usually a good time to buy. Right. What are the catalysts here? Well, the Fed may cut interest rates like I said. Maybe they fire the money printers again to try and save, you know, and boost the economy again. That finds its way into risk on assets and usually when the central bank increases their balance sheet, you know, bitcoin performs pretty well. So ultimately I'm staying put. I'm just waiting to see how the next few days plays out before I sort of pull the trigger because we could see markets sort of tend a little bit lower. But you know, ultimately, you know, I will be buying this dip and you know, for a lot of the altcoins I'll probably be phasing it in two standpoints. I'll probably be going bitcoin and predominantly first bitcoin and eth and then maybe staggering to altcoins depending how it plays out because my targets are still intact. I still think we're going to see, you know, prices run and we've seen how quickly things bounce. You know, it was only a month or two ago that, you know, prices we had took a bit of a dump and we bounced. And you know, we're rallying 20, 30, 40% in, you know, week long periods. Crypto reacts and bounces very quickly. So don't throw in the towel. Don't forget that, you know, the four year cycle is still intact. And I do still think we see, you know, a really positive bull run maybe later this year. But ultimately my, my, my always, my viewpoint has been middle to late next year, you know, in line with the last two cycles and when we see that peak. So yeah, that's, that's the way I'm seeing it play out again. Stay patient, don't throw in the tower just yet. You know, I think there's a lot more to come and you know, it's important to not get too scared and not get too panicked. That's where really people make the mistakes. When they get fearful, they get angry, they get emotional. That's not a good way to invest. Crypto is volatile. Let's remember that team. Let's not get caught up in the influences and the clickbait and all the nonsense that gets thrown around and the TA experts giving us their, you know, their charts on like if it hits this point it's going to go there. Like yes, it can give us a guy. But guys, the reality is most people have no idea. No one's got a crystal ball. No one's seen crypto having to perform in you know the situations, you know that may be that may present it ahead of it. But what we do know is the fundamentals of wiring. Bitcoin wiring, ethereum wiring maybe you know some of these old coins are a part of and you know we've got a whole conviction that's the only way to make it through and if you hold conviction you know you're going to be rewarded. So hopefully that's been helpful. If you like these episodes I'd love you to check out some other videos but I go into some strategy, go into some portfolio stuff, look at exit strategies. I'm really trying to help you navigate this crypto journey from an independence perspective and that's hopefully going to help you along the way and navigate through the murky waters. Hope that's been helpful guys. Please leave me a subscribe if you like the video and I'll see you on the next episode. Thank you.