I Just Bought More Crypto During This Market Crash

Ben Simpson (YouTube) argues that the current bitcoin/crypto pullback is normal for a bull cycle and not evidence the bull market is over. He explains that crypto’s 24/7 free market structure produces fast corrections and recoveries, cites historical drawdowns (e.g., 2013: 87% drawdown; 2020 COVID drop from $10,000 to $5,000), and says short-term holders (typically <3 months) drive much selling. Simpson states he has bought the dip, is dollar-cost averaging, and holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and several altcoins (Maple, Maker, Jupiter on Solana), recommending patient, long-term positioning.
Questions this video answers
An 87% drawdown.
From $10,000 to $5,000.
Short term sellers are usually less than three months.
Chapters
Is this bull market different to others? That is the million dollar question right now. Always is this time different? And sometimes if you look at the stock market world, that phrase can be the winning or losing argument of do you succeed in the market? Is this time different? That's a million dollar question, right? So this bitcoin bull market, there are a number of corrections, right? In every single crypto cycle, there are large corrections. We've just gone through one in August, Bitcoin crypto down 20, 30, 40, 50%. Some people calling the bull market over, some people saying, this is it. In my opinion, I believe this bull market is nowhere near complete. And I have just recently bought the dip, and I'll be continuing to buy this dip because I believe that we are just starting this cycle in terms of the real kickoff of the bull market about to begin. So in these bull markets, it's really important to understand that corrections are massively, massively normal. And there will be more correct bitcoin one day will get to 150, $200,000 and correct back to 80 or $90,000. They're very normal. The biggest thing to remember in cryptocurrency is that we trade 24, 7. This is a free market. What we saw recently in Japan and Korea and even in the stock market on Robinhood, they can just remove the sell button, halt trading. That is not a thing in cryptocurrency, you can't just remove the sell button, right? In the stock market, it trades, you know, 9 to 5 basically Monday to Friday and, and then they go off and markets close for the weekend, right? That's non existent in crypto, it's an absolute free market. So the market will react according to what's going on in the world. And we get these corrections and explosive moves higher, faster than ever because it is a free 247 market. Now, if you look at previous cycles, we've seen some massive corrections. In August of this. Sorry. This year we saw a 20% correction in a week. But in 2013, we actually saw one 87% drawdown. Bitcoin went down 87%, right? Nuts. In 2017, we saw three 35 plus percent corrections, eight 25% corrections and 12, 15% drawdowns, right? These are huge corrections. And it's important to remember that these drawdowns are very normal across bitcoin and Ethereum and altcoins. Altcoins tend to get hurt the most. But compounded year after year, bitcoin is compounding at a 60% drop growth rate year on year over the last 10 years. So to get through these cycles, to understand that to make the returns and get where you want to go with your portfolio, you have to take the pain. If we look at the on chain data, we see who sells during these corrections. Why does the market plummet so quickly? Well, I've done other videos on like the impacts of this from the macro, but if we look at just crypto specifically, we can look on chain to see that the short term sellers, the people that come in in the short term, which is usually less than three months, are the ones primarily selling their bags when the market corrects. Why? Well, they're uneducated and they don't know if you're coming from the stock market world and you're holding crypto, you buy Ethereum, you buy Solana, you buy Bitcoin, it goes down 20% in a day. No wonder you're selling right, you've got no idea and you think it's all going to be over and you can't stomach the risk. This is why crypto goes down so fast, is because we get so many people that come in and think short term. Now that also gives us the opportunity to buy when there's blood in the streets and we get these corrections. Historically there's been some amazing opportunities to get in the market and if you've got cash on the sidelines to deploy in these lows, these are historically amazing times. Now if we overlay this with sentiment analysis. So one of the best things I like to do is look at the sentiment of crypto YouTube channels, like to look at the fear and greed index. I like to just, just generally feel out how people are feeling about the market. When we get into the ultra fearful territory, into the extreme fear territory, usually these are good times to buy. Now you've got to be careful in terms of, you know, what's called catching a falling knife when the market is dumping so quickly, trying to catch when the bottom will be, you can lose out a little bit there. But ultimately if you're stepping back and you're being patient and you're looking over the long term, these fearful points are super, super important in terms of taking advantage of them. Now what we saw over the last few days and weeks in terms of these corrections is that the fear got worse than the FTX crash back in 2022, which was nuts. The liquidations were as bad as what we've seen since the COVID 2020 crash. And just generally people in the market were throwing in the towel and thinking that this Bull market's over and that for me gives us the opportunity to buy. What we've seen over the last few days is the Fed and the interest rates starting to be looked down in the, in the future months and even looking at the US Government starting to potentially buy back bonds and getting the money printers going. And we've seen that in Japan. That's why the Japan stock market started to increase and the market started to turn around. So these are all really bullish factors. Now when you get these huge liquidations at scale and you get these domino effects, that's when you start to see these huge corrections play out. Now a good sign of a bull market when we get these corrections is a fast or faster rebound. Right. It's never usually a V shaped recovery, but you like to see at least people buying at these dips. And we've started to see large volumes coming in from the ETFs over the last few days with net positive both on Ethereum and Bitcoin, which is hugely positive. So we're seeing the people are buying the dip. Now if you look at a macro scale, we haven't seen this level of fear since October 2022. The stock market had a huge sell off. We saw that the top seven, the Magnificent Seven, losing more than 10% each over a 24 hour period, which is massively wild swings in the stock market world. So when you get this fear of recession, this fear of, you know, the stock market coming down, that eventually finds its way into crypto. Even the vix, the volatility index was the worst that we've seen since the COVID 2020 crash. And the time before that was the global financial crisis. There's only been three points where we've seen the volatility as high as it's been over the last few years. And that was the GFC and the COVID 2020 crash, which is wild right now. If you look at bitcoin, we saw bitcoin in the COVID 2020 crash plummet from 10,000 to 5,000. And then we saw an absolutely unbelievable run from 5,000 to 67,000 in the 18 months following. As the money printer started to get going in, concerns of recession started to dampen and we saw the market really get going again. Now really, it's important to remember that these markets can turn really quickly. It's important not to think too short term. I see a lot of people and a lot of mistakes that, you know, I see in the market and even some of our members think too short term. The Market goes down, they get frustrated, they get angry, and because they're not getting 50, 60% returns in two or three months, that they get really frustrated, they get angry. Guys, if we step back and think, remember, bitcoin's compounding at 60% year over year. It's one of the best asset classes in the world. So when we get these corrections, if you don't have money on the sidelines, it's important, just maybe step back, be patient, breathe, let it play out and think long term. Do we think bitcoin and crypto is going to be higher in the years to come? Of course. That's why we're here. And if we have cash on the sidelines, it's usually a good point to, to potentially start to deploy and start to lower that averaging buying price. So is this bull market different than others? No, I don't believe so. In fact, that we haven't seen this larger drawdown yet since previous bull cycles. So this drawdown potentially is the one. Maybe there'll be ones to come, but these are very normal for cryptocurrency. And it's important to remember that, you know, cryptocurrency is hugely volatile. And as I mentioned at the start, to make the returns in crypto, you have to stomach the risk. This is the, this is the beauty and the, and the base of crypto. In future years, I expect the market cap to lower, the volatility to lower, and I think things will become a lot easier to stomach as we go through the cycles. But, you know, ultimately finding these positions and being able to stomach the risk is the way that you can return. And I've been doing this for seven or eight years now. This is nothing compared to previous cycles. Right. When we went to $3,000 back in. I don't know what it was, 2018, 2019, that was, that was brutal. Right? People would literally. They only cared about crypto and everyone threw in the towel. They provide the opportunity. So when there's blood in the streets, double down, guys. When there's blood in the streets, have a look and see where the opportunities are, where to point your capital. Right now, what am I buying? I'm ultimately focusing on some of the altcoins. I've been having my portfolio, I've got in my portfolio for a little while, you know, Ethereum, Solana, maple maker. I think these ones are going to perform really well. Jupiter on Solana as well. These are the assets that I have in my portfolio that I want to continue to buy. I have a higher risk Appetite. So I believe that these are going to be good long term plays for the rest of this cycle. Do we see more drawdowns in altcoins? Yes, of course, I think we do. The bitcoin dominance continues to increase and while we have these choppiness periods, period, I think it's going to be pretty hard for altcoins really to take off, especially as there's no retail interest. But for me, I've got a long term view and I think there's some really undervalued assets in the market right now. On the other side, I continue to buy Bitcoin. I think bitcoin is again as I mentioned in other videos, I'm a price agnostic. Buying bitcoin and stacking that for the long term, that's my 10, 15, 20 year stack. I think we're seeing great prices of bitcoin right now. I think we'll look back at these times and again, remember, wow, why didn't I buy more? So that's how I'm playing the market. I'm dollar cost averaging at the moment, so I've got a bit of cash on the sidelines. I'm splitting it up because who knows what could happen. The market is extremely volatile at the moment. Any sort of news or macro news is pushing the market quite significantly. It's quite volatile where we're at at the moment. Everyone's very reactionary, very probably worried when we see the fear at the levels they are, the market's going to be very, very reactionary. So having some cash on the sidelines and taking advantage of these opportunities is really important. But stay patient guys, don't get too fearful. This, this cycle is not going anywhere. You know, nothing fundamentally has changed. For me. We're seeing some big, significant macro movements and as we lead into the election, as we lead into, you know, the later half of this year and sorry, even the last quarter this year, I think we're going to start to see things start to recover. And heading into next year where I believe the peak of this cycle will be, will be middle to late next year. So breathe, it's all okay. We don't need to stress, we don't need to look at the daily timeframes, the hourly timeframes, we can step back and just remember we're here for the long term. We investing into crypto to grow our wealth, not try and triple it overnight. So hopefully that's been helpful. No, this bull market is not different. Others, in my opinion, I think we're still on course for a remainder of this year and into next year and continue buying, continue holding and trying not to get caught up into the chaos of crypto, Twitter and influencers online. Hopefully that's been helpful. 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