Is The 2025 Crypto Bull Run Over? (My Honest Thoughts)

Is the crypto bull market over for 2025? Will the market continue to go down or is the right time to buy now? And also what am I looking at to invest? I'm going to share with you all of my insights, my honest thoughts on where we are in the market right now. Because we've had a huge correction over the last few days. We sort of lost this level of support around that ninety thousand dollar level and we've been sort of in this downward slope now for the last couple of days. We had a huge sell off, especially the altcoin space yesterday. The others market cap, which is essentially the market cap of all altcoins, has really tapered off. We've, we've basically gone from around that 450 billion dollar level down to 225, down about 2526 in just over a couple of months, which is absolutely crazy. We were obviously pumping in November, December, but now the market's really starting to sell off. So where are we at? What's going on and will the altcoins recover? And I think at the moment like there's a lot of frustration, a lot of hopelessness, people throwing the towel, a lot of anger and I want to sort of talk through where I think we are in the moment. When and if do I think the market will recover? And I do think it will and how am I playing my portfolio right now and what am I looking at to invest in? So we saw obviously a huge sell off for the last few days. Over 1.5 billion was liquidated in 24 hours. We see this happening time and time again. It's been a crazy start to the year folks. Like, honestly like if you look back at all the events that have happened in 2025, it's been a bloodbath for long term holders and those that are holding altcoins. You know, the additional cell pressure coming in from, you know, some of the unlocks, you know, especially in some of the bigger layer ones and then trade is getting absolutely wrecked and then we have this forced liquidation which pushes the market down really, really fast, has been a tough one. But this is really in line with the market update I gave to our members two weeks ago. Now just around how my outlook hasn't changed but has been pushed back. You know we've made it clear that we're not going to get quantitative easy anytime soon. And also quantitative tightening is probably not going to stop for the foreseeable future. It was in the FOMC minutes recently, but there are more ways. The liquidity can enter the market. We have some really good news overnight which I'll share soon around the M2 money supply, which I do believe is going to really start to push the market back up. I'll share my timing in a second but you know we've still got a lot of great tailwinds. This is not the time to be throwing in the towel. This is not the time to be getting frustrated and worked up and angry. We have so many of these corrections over the course of the last few years and ultimately the opposite altcoin market has taken the biggest hit. And I, I do believe that had a lot to do with pump fun. I do believe it's got a lot to do with the amount of new coins that have been created. We had 600,000 new altcoins created in January alone, which is absolutely bananas compared to where we have in previous cycles. And if you look at the altcoin market cap like we had a lot of growth. It hit all time highs back in November. But you know, because there's so many new coins out there, it's so much harder to get real growth in the altcoin space, you know. You know Ethereum didn't hit all time highs. For example, Defi didn't really have a good run. There was only certain sectors that had a decent run in their portfolio. And this is really in line with sort of what I said to our platinum members yesterday or the day before. Just around the market conditions are challenging and when you have bitcoin trading sideways for a hundred days, there's going to be a lot of sell pressure that comes into the market. And with that frustration there's people just not having that North Star like what are people investing for at the moment? What do they have looking forward to? There's not that much. But in the 2021 bull market this was the same thing. We had 13 corrections of 10% plus. That's completely normal in crypto. And those that feeling overexposed or maybe you don't have your portfolio allocation right, you've got a lot of altcoins. This is really going to hurt your portfolio. You know, maybe you're down 30 or 40%. I only hold 25% of my portfolio in altcoins. I recently made a big portfolio update which back here that I was you know, really promoting, you know, pushing a lot of those lower cap altcoins into the bigger caps. I've really been only buying bitcoin predominantly for the last year now and I'm sitting pretty, pretty happy there. But if You've sat in a lot of low cap altcoins and you sort of buried your head in the sand. Well then, you know, you're probably not in the same position. One really positive is that I do believe bitcoin is holding up extremely well considering the macro conditions. But now is the time to be patient. And when we flip so bearish and when sentiment gets so bearish, it is time to sort of recuperate, you know, sit back and, and understand. And again, that sort of comes back to, you know, a lot of the stuff that's been happening in our platinum group. Like just having that sort of team by your side and that like just having the, the coaching and logic to just sit back and relax is a big reason why our platinum group is what it is. Because so many people just listen to people online and Twitter and YouTube and you get so fixated and the emotions and you get worried and panicked and you're not selling off and making bad decisions. So the platinum group has been awesome. That's our high net worth group. For those that you, that have more than a couple hundred thousand dollars in crypto, we have over a hundred high net worth in the platinum. It's been awesome to sort of navigate the markets with them. But you know, publicly and where most people are is it's an extreme fear right now. Like only a month ago we were sitting that real greed area and a really simple strategy if you want to really, really strip it all back for those that are time poor, you know, buying when we're in extreme fear and selling in greed is the most simple of strategies. And to be honest, is probably outperforming most people in the market right now. Most people are getting panicked, most people are getting worried and they're getting, you know, super fearful and, and throwing in the towel and it's time to, to become bullish. Like I'm really looking at a few positions which I'll share in a second about what I'm looking at because now is the time to be accumulating. Now is the time to be jumping in these opportunities, not getting worried and panic like the rest of retail market. So do I see dipping more? Is this the bottom? That's a big question people are asking. You know, ultimately I think we're down here in this sort of anger and depression stage. Like if I really sit back and think about what and the messages I get and who I'm talking to and really reading the center of the room, people are angry, people are, they're, they're cracking the shits. They're sad. They're like, why is this not playing, playing out their way they'd hoped. They thought Donald Trump was going to come in and just, you know, push the markets up and everything's going to rally and everyone's going to make a bunch of money. But that's not reality. There's so much sell pressure right now. There's not a lot to look forward to and people are going, is this even going to be, you know, a bull market? Like, we'd hope so. I do believe that the market will return. I think if you just look at, for example, the timelines I think everyone thought was going to happen in Q1, Q2, I think we're waiting now for the strategic bitcoin reserve announcement to come out mid year. We do have, you know, Jerome Powell hinting that QT may be coming to a close or at least slowing. But right now, like, you know, altcoins are really in this sort of sad, depressive state. Like a lot of the altcoins are down a lot. As I mentioned back at the start, like the altcoin market cap has taken a big nosedive and especially some of the lower caps especially have taken a big hit. If we look at like where we are in terms of the bitcoin altcoin season, this sort of just, you know, pushes up and down over the course of the last few years. Like we swap and change pretty, pretty cyclically. And right now we are well into the bitcoin season and only November, we're well into the altcoin season. Right. So this is just basically like a sentiment indicator in terms of, you know, where the market's at. And as we go into this bitcoin season, usually this is a good time to start to buy altcoins, right. When we head down to these levels, vice versa, when we head up into these levels, it's probably start to time to sell your old coins and buy back into bitcoin. So again, very simple, you know, data here, but you know, one that I think is something that a lot of people forget about, especially if you're new to crypto, is that these corrections are very, very normal. Like, you know, if we have a look at these corrections, when we ran from about 3,000 up to 60,000, there was huge corrections. And this is bitcoin, right? Bitcoin leads the market. Altcoins follow. When you have a 30 or 40 dip in Bitcoin, you're going to have even bigger dips in the, in the old coin. So it's really Important to zoom out. Remember that this is not going to be forever. Remember that crypto trades 24 7. It's highly emotional and people get very, very worked up and very, very sad and very, very depressive and then also very, very excited and things can flip really bullish really quickly, you know, and, and, and I'm a big believer that this will turn. I do think that we potentially are in sort of this, you know, inverse cup and handle, you know, pattern like greenies put out. I respect greenies sort of TA online. This is the altcoin market cap, sort of the total three, excluding BTC and eth. And we've gone on this huge run consolidation period build up and now we're having sort of this last correction and this is a continuation pattern for a cup and handle. Again, I'm not all in on ta, but you know, if this sort of plays out, I'd be excited. And I think really, again, this has got to line up with the macro, right? The macro things we're looking at is, you know, interest rates at least maybe come down a little bit more quantitative tightening to slow down, if not stop. I don't think we're going to get qe, but if we have those macro conditions sort of in our favor. And then we also have things like Trump who continues to buy a heap of crypto in his world, Liberty Financial. And then we've also got this morning Donald Trump's son Eric is saying buy the dip. Like these guys know what they're doing, they're businessmen excited. And I do believe that later this year with some more macro favorable macro conditions, that something's going to come out. Doesn't take much for an announcement to come out, especially with a pro crypto presidency. The thing's going to push higher. Think people are frustrated that it hasn't happened. But he's got other on his mind right now. He's too busy putting tariffs on different countries and cleaning up his backyard to get in there. But the most exciting thing for me is this sort of turn in the M2 money supply. So the M2 money supply is basically just global liquidity and where this is the, you know, the, the ten week sort of, you know, future projections on where this empty money supply is going to be going. And we're seeing that sort of turn around over the last. Oh, sorry. Over the next 10 weeks. And Bitcoin follows the M2 money supply to a T. You know, if you really strip it back, global liquidity finds its way into risk on assets and bitcoin Tracks is really, really well now. We had a quite, quite a substantial decrease in the, in liquidity back from sort of September last year. Bitcoin has been consolidating in sort of in that shop solidation period for about 100 days now. We've seen a bit of a sell off. We could see bitcoin sell off a little bit more. Like I'm eyeing off, like at a minimum, I'm hoping Bitcoin holds 80,000. You know, again we're sitting at 88,000 at the moment. I am looking to buy in this period here. I'm just waiting to see how bitcoin plays out the next little period. But if bitcoin starts to turn and follow the M2 money supply, which I think it will, I will continue to add to my positions. And that's kind of my sort of prediction of how it play out now if the, if the inverse happens and that may cancel out. But the M2 money supply has been a great indicator for bitcoin's performance for a little while. And that sort of 30 days shifted forward insights based on that weakened dollar is where we're at at the moment essentially. Again, this is another way to look at it sort of. We've been in that decline period now in terms of the global liquidity. Global liquidity is turning back up and then hopefully, you know, 80k roughly will be the bottom for BTC. That's the angles I'm looking at. So what is my plan? How am I playing this, Ben? Great. Awesome. But you know, what are you looking at? Well, ultimately again, back to my plan that I made two weeks ago is that, you know, my changes were to reduce my lower cap assets. I won't scroll down because that's a member benefit. But basically I've sold, sold down a lot of my meme coins, sold out a lot of my AI and gaming plays and pushed them back into the big caps. Right. You know, Sui Solana, eth, but predominantly btc. I've been holding a lot of BTC for a long time and this is something we teach all of our clients as they jump on is that ensuring that, you know, you don't have too many altcoins and you know you don't have enough BTC and ETH. Like we really recommend a high percentage amount of BTC and ETH and if you're sitting here, you still up 120, 110% of the last 12 months in your BTC and having a smaller percentage in your altcoins. Right. If you have a Larger percentage of altcoins which a lot of people do because they chase the gains. You've been absolutely smashed and you know, again I do believe that, you know, altcoins play a part in the portfolio but they don't and shouldn't comprise of all the portfolio. Right. Especially when you're getting not favorable conditions. You've really got to be patient or if you're worried and you're over, you've over allocated. I do recommend, you know, thinking about selling that, selling some of those altcoins off, maybe moving into stable coins or BTC and not over allocating. And I think this is a good reminder to remember that just because you have altcoins doesn't mean they all go up. And this cycle is a lot different to previous cycles where there's so many more coins. There's literally hundreds of thousands of more coins this cycle compared to the last ones. Now will we see a normal altcoin season? Maybe. I do think that has been affected by that sort of pump fun launch that, you know, things got really crazy. We've got governments and influencers launching all these meme coins. It's been absolute wild. I actually think this is a really healthy reset. I'm actually happy that the market has flushed that crap out because there is no space for it in my opinion. It frustrates me that's not where the assets and the wealth is going to be created for most people. Most people get burnt and lose a shitload of money. I think the market is going to start to reward and move back in favor of fundamentals tokenomics and that's where I think the likes of Defi, you know, some of these AI coins are going to start to play out. The next gen layer 1 assets hype is one I've been, you know, excited about and added to my portfolio recently. I think the market is going to start to come back and look at that. But there is opportunity to de risk and you know, Simon, one of our senior analysts has started to de risk a little bit at the moment. You know, he doesn't think the cycle top is in. But you can't ignore that. The fact that we are not in the most favorable conditions at the moment, we do think they will turn but there's never a bad idea to readjust and restrategize your portfolio just like I did here back a couple of weeks ago. That is important. It's important to have a strategy and not just go back and bury your head in the sand. It's really important to update based on where we are in the market data. And again, is the bull market over? No, but it is not playing out exactly like it has in previous cycles, so you've got to be aware of that. So do I think the bull market is over? No, I don't. I do think we're going to start to see a turn, especially around the indicators and factors I've just, you know, sort of provided there, especially around the M2 money supply and whatever else. But portfolio allocation is the most important and you really need to make sure you have a good structure. If you need help with that, by all means you know, you can check out our site. The Platinum Membership is where we're really working with high net worth individuals, those with at least quarter of a million to join. It's by application only. I work with you one on one and can coach you through that to help you with your portfolio. You can join our amazing community and really get all the insights and WhatsApp support from myself and the analysts to really guide you through. But ensure you have a strategy. Stick to your plan. Try not to get emotional and try not to buy into the craziness and the frustration the hopelessness of the market has, because the reality is we've got a lot of tailwinds happening right now. There's so many exciting things happening this year and if global liquidity improves and we get those macro conditions, I'm really excited about where we're going to be, but we could be in a little bit of chop solidation period for a little bit. Make sure you have your strategy, don't go too hard on altcoins and yeah, I'll see you on the next video. Thanks for watching. Leave a subscribe if you enjoyed it and we'll see you very soon. Bye bye.