Is The Crypto Bull Market Back? (MUST WATCH)

Ben Simpson (founder of Collective Shift) reviews a recent extreme crypto sell-off and rapid rebound, explaining it was driven by Trump announcing tariffs (25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico, 10% on China) which triggered over $2 billion in liquidations. He walks through how subsequent negotiations/pauses (Canada) and a planned US Digital Asset advisory press conference helped markets bounce. Ben gives concrete price moves (Bitcoin ~101,000 USD → wick to ~91,000 USD → recovery; Ethereum ~3,200 USD → wick to ~2,100 USD → recovered to ~2,800 USD), comments on macro conditions (quantitative tightening), and outlines his portfolio approach (heavy BTC allocation, keep core ETH/SOL/SUI, use altcoin sizing and evaluate bounce strength). He emphasizes patience, portfolio construction, and that political/macro moves caused price changes but not fundamental asset value shifts.
Questions this video answers
Over $2 billion (claimed in the video).
25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico, and 10% on China (as stated in the video).
Started around $101,000, wicked down to ~$91,000, then recovered back toward prior levels (figures given verbally).
Ethereum wicked from about $3,200 down to ~$2,100, then recovered to around $2,800 (as stated).
Chapters
Is the bull market over? Is this just a dead cat bounce? What on earth is going on? It's been the craziest couple of days in crypto. Yesterday we had the biggest day of liquidations in history. Bigger than FTX, bigger than the COVID crash. Over $2 billion worth of liquidations and these were triggered by the tariffs and Trump just dropping the hammer on the market and everything dumped Bitcoin went down, all the altcoins dumped some old coins down 50, 60% since their all time highs and most old coins around 30 in a 24 hour period. And most people were calling the end of the bull market now overnight. We woke up to this morning and things were bouncing crazily. What is going on? Is the dead cat bounce? Will we see this continuation go on? What's going to happen and what is my game plan? I'm going to give you all the details, all the beans in today's video. Thanks so much for joining. If you like these videos, please leave me A subscriber really helps me out. My name is Ben on the founder of Collective Shift. I've been doing this now for eight years researching and investing full time in crypto and I really want to give you the insights because I've seen this play before. Now we haven't obviously seen that big amount a liquidations day in that period of time. However, we have seen these huge crashes before and this is another day in paradise in crypto. If it's your first bull market, welcome. But I really want to explain first of all like what actually happened in the market reaction. If we head over and check out what I posted yesterday to our members, really what we saw was that Trump imposing these tariffs on countries. So we saw a 25% tariff on Canada, we saw a 25% tariff on Mexico and 10% on China. And this really pushed a huge sell off in the market. Was the weekend at the time when this was announced and crypto is the most liquid asset on the planet. So when people need capital they can go to crypto. That's why it sold off really quickly. And you know, really what he was doing is, you know, the US are in $37 trillion worth of debt. That's a lot of debt. And then what we saw was Canada retaliate and then it all set off and everything started to go. So really, you know, potentially there was like, you know, a little bit of, I guess not uncertainty, but it just caught everyone off guard that you know, if they were going to do tariffs, Trump did warn he was going to but they probably thought it was just going to build up over time, not just drop the hammer at once. That's what he did. Now what happened and what we saw overnight was basically we woke up and you know, Canada had basically done negotiations and they met with, with Trump and so did Mexico. They started to come back and really, you know, come to some sort of middle ground. And, and off the back of that, we also saw that they announced tariffs were paused on Canada while they, you know, still went through the negotiations, which was really, really positive. But also the US Digital Asset strategy, you know, team, I guess that you could call it the advisory team, have announced they're going to do a press conference tomorrow, which is massive. Right? This is something that's been pushed through as an executive order when Trump came into administration. And it's what I really pushed in my content that I did yesterday was just reminding people that like, don't get shaken out here. Like we've, we need to remember the tailwinds that's coming into the market right now. We literally have a pro crypto US Presidency that wants to build crypto and already owns, you know, the world. Liberty Financial already owns about a quarter of a billion dollars worth of crypto. They want the US to be the home of crypto. And I think it's very, very short sighted to just look a few days or just at the day of and think that everything's over without looking at what's really going on. And for me, Trump's trying to clean up his backyard. He's cleaning up, you know, the negotiations and deals he's got with countries. He's trying to get inflation under control with Doge and the Department of Government Efficiency. He's trying to get everything in order to then in my opinion, start to push the market. He's going to look back on his term as president and basically see his success as president based off the performance of the stock market. That's how he's going to basically, you know, adjudicate himself, in my opinion. And that's what I really try to push. Yesterday we saw huge sell offs because the tariffs. But then ultimately because we went down so far, we started to get these triggering of longs and that's what we get liquidated. We had this huge for selling, so we had these huge sell offs and if we look at like what bitcoin. Bitcoin started off yesterday or the day before, just about 101,000. We wicked all the way down to then we got wicked even down to 91,000 and then overnight we've seen that recovery come straight back to where we were two days ago. Right. Ethereum hasn't quite recovered to where where we were. But ethereum wicked from 3200 I think. Yeah. One week was down to 2100 which is absolutely wild. And then we pushed back to 2800 overnight. EBTC chart is still looking ugly as hell. You know, altcoins really right now, they're not favorable conditions. We're still in quantitative tightening. This is something I keep reminding you know our members is this is the reason why I'm not selling. The reason I'm not selling is the risk to reward of selling now is just not there. If the market was favorable to, I guess altcoins are risk on assets if there was at least no quantitative tightening or maybe there's quantitative easing and we're getting these results. Different story. But we are not in the conditions for altcoins to really rally. I do believe that's going to come though. Every cycle we see these huge corrections, we see these huge flush outs and even if we go back to 2021 on the EBTC chart, we saw the same thing. We're back down to levels not seen since the start of 2021 about four years ago. But you can see here, not long after we went on this huge rally, quantitative tightening stopped. We started to see money flowing and the market started to really rally. And that's what my reminder was yesterday. Now this is, I made this tweet about like separating the men from the boys yesterday. This is why crypto can give you the returns because it is actually really, really hard to get through these periods of time. And if you are new to the space, it probably feels super painful. These markets dropping to levels that you, that you haven't seen before, down 20%, down 30% of the day. It's what's wild. But I've literally been here for seven or eight years and this thing has happened so many times. I remember when Eth dropped to $80, right. Or BTC dropped to $3,000 and I just bought in a heap at $9,000, it dropped to $3,000 and no one's even talking about crypto. There wasn't even really crypto Twitter back then. That was painful. The market is so much bigger now. We have countries buying bitcoin, we have micro strategy, we have a pro Trump presidency, we have the sovereign wealth fund which was just announced. Right, let's talk about that. That's absolutely massive. These guys are literally planning on buying crypto the government Trump himself owns, World Liberty Financial owns a quarter of a billion dollars. Like, there is so much going on behind the space, it is unbelievable. I could not be bearish right now. And this is where the opportunities arise, right? When you see things like the sovereign wealth fund, if you look behind the curtain, and Dax laid this out really well, Howard Lutnick, he's the guy that is, you know, sort of behind the scenes on this new sovereign wealth fund that Trump signed this morning. He owns hundreds of millions of bitcoin. He is also a 5% stakeholder in Tether, and he manages all of Tether's treasury assets. You got Senator Loomis talking about how this is such a big deal and she's like the bitcoin senator pushing this. There is so many people behind the scenes pushing bitcoin. With this sovereign wealth fund and the crypto advisory announcements tonight, I really do think there's going to be some really bullish things coming out of the back of this. And that's why we are seeing the market. Correct. And that's why right now I am not doing anything with my portfolio in terms of, in terms of selling my bitcoin rates or anything like that. I am going to make a couple of adjustments. I'm going to talk to you how you can recognize what altcoins are strong and how to sort of understand which ones you should sell off. Because I'm about to make some plays which I'll share with my members, but, you know, we're seeing huge volatility. ETH had the biggest pump in USD value and percentage terms ever. Oh, no, sorry. In years. Sorry. Surpassing the ETF candle by 10% and it was still down wild. Right. And Dan put it as well here. Incredible to see how fast people turn from bearish to bullish. That's just like such a classic crypto move. But one thing that I really want you to look at when you're looking at your old coins on a big flush out like this is how well they bounce. Right. So something like Solana, when you see a huge flush out, how well does that bounce off the lows? Up 18%. Right. A favorite of mine, which I've spoken to you about before, prime up 30% off the lows. Right. In the last 24 hours, something like make is actually what I'm looking to potentially offload hasn't done too well. This is showing the signs of the strength or weaknesses that the market is showcasing. An asset off the lows. Right. Really, really important. Look at this. It's A great idea. When you, when you have a big flash out to reset, have a look at your portfolio, understand which also hurt the most and which ones are recovering the least. That gives you a really good insight as to which ones you may want to make a decision on to try and like replenish your portfolio. Now my game plan, what I'm going to be doing is really going through our detail this out with our members below, but really getting comfortable with like what is the risk to reward with my portfolio right now. Let's look at those assets, let's re look at the game plan. How well did that bounce? What trends and what narratives are going to be big for this year again? You guys know my big two trends this year is I think AI is going to be a massive one. I think the AI agents is an interesting one just because there's so many. I personally aren't going to AI agent space looking at certain blockchains that are helping, you know, AI Solana is going to be big. My AI players I mentioned before, Prime, I think it's going to do really well. Next gen layer ones, there's a couple of new layer 1 blockchains that are coming out, which is really exciting. I think SUI is going to do really well. Solana, ETH and BTC obviously. And as you know, my game plan this year is just to be keep it simple, try and stack as much bitcoin as possible. We're still up, Bitcoin still up like 110% over the last 12 months. Like, if you're holding bitcoin, you're not even like blinking what's going on? Over the last few days, bitcoin has held up so well. This just goes to show the strength of this asset. 140% of last year. We really need bitcoin to continue growing higher, grinding higher. This is where we're going to start to see money flow down in the old coins. If you want to see those altcoins go. We really need to see bitcoin really, you know, grow higher. But these bullish signs, the bounce off the lows. We've got the announcement from the digital asset, you know, advisory tonight, Australian time. We've got the sovereign wealth fund. We've got hopefully at some point in the next few months, quantitative tightening, slowing down, if not stopping. That's what's really going to give us a lot of like bullish pressure and to get, you know, crypto back in the limelight, you know, because a lot of the old coins have been smashed and coming back to like my game plan. Portfolio construction folks, is the most important thing. You need to have a solid portfolio construction. For me, having at least 50% bitcoin in your portfolio, having, you know, a large percentage of like E, Sol and Sui is really important. And then mixing your altcoins with a smaller percentage with as high risk to reward frameworks because if you have all altcoins or if you have very small amount of bitcoin, you've been annihilated, right, right now your portfolio's probably been smashed because a lot of these altcoins down 50, 60% from their highs and it'll continue to do that until we get more favorable conditions. So just really want to urge that altcoin season will come in my opinion, but they're not the conditions right now, so you need to remain patient. And we've got like Eric Trump literally posting. In my opinion, it's a great time to add eth and they are stacking huge amounts of eth into the world Liberty. These are things that give me a lot of confidence in being able to back these altcoins, these projects for the later in the year. But there's no point getting worried, upset, frustrated in why things aren't pumping right now. When the market is the is the way it is, there's a lot of tailwinds. Don't get frustrated when you see those big dumps like we did yesterday. Remember that that is normal. In the last bull market we had 13, 10% plus corrections. It's very normal to see these huge corrections in bull markets. It flushes out the weekends, gives you a great opportunity to buy back into the lows. And when you get this mass liquidations, that's when the markets really force lower, but it resets the foundation. Remember that price and value are two separate things. The price that someone's willing to pay for something and the value of the asset are two separate things. Just because the price goes down doesn't make the asset any less valuable. There's nothing fundamentally that has changed over the market last 48 hours that simply political impacts and macro impacts. The asset is still the asset. What has changed though is the confidence around different altcoins and the sectors that they're going to be, you know, really well positioned in 2025. And as I mentioned, that thing I just did of like just going through and just looking at the strength of an altcoin on the bounce after a flush out is a great way to see how the market's going to react for that asset in the weeks and months to come. And if your altcoins haven't bounced that well, it's probably a good idea to start reconsidering. Is this the asset I want to hold in my portfolio in flush outs? As I said, Final reminder, use it as an opportunity to reevaluate your portfolio. Look at your altcoins, see which altcoins you want to be holding for the next 12 months. Because this is the year, in my opinion, we're going to get most of the returns. And you want to be making sure you're holding really, really good stuff. So hopefully that's been helpful. If you like these videos, please leave me a subscribe. It's how I grow the channel, coming to you once a week, giving you all the insights and the beans to try and help you win and succeed in crypto. My name is Ben. Thank you so much and I'll see you on the next video.










