It's Time To Re-Strategize Your Crypto Portfolio

How to actually make money in a bull market. The survival guide, the wins, the lessons, everything I've learned of investing in crypto over the last eight years. I want to share with you in today's video because we're in such an interesting spot with the market being down Most altcoins down 20 to 50%. Bitcoin's in a bit of a low period. But this is what we've been saying for such a long time leading up to the bitcoin halving that we're looking for a narrative. What's going to be the next best thing? What are the altcoins to look into? I'm going to share with you all of that in today's video so you can come out the back end of this video. I'm to going with a bit more of a structured plan, a better understanding of where we're at and a better understanding where you can actually deploy some of your cash and some of the crypto you have right now to maybe re strategize, rethink your portfolio to really take advantage of the back half of this year in this video. So if you're new to the channel, we'd love for you to leave a subscribe. I'm new to creating YouTube videos, but I've been doing this for about eight years, investing full time in crypto. I run Australia's largest crypto research company, Collective Shift. We work with over a thousand paying members around the world and I'm trying to do more videos like this because the feedback's been bang, get in front of camera and start doing more videos. So if you like these videos, would love for you to share a bit of feedback and make sure to leave a subscribe. So we're in a bit of an interesting spot in the market right now. We're sort of in this correction sort of low period and, and I've sort of, you know, got up this morning and really realized that sentiment really has started to, to drop off. I mean, I looked at the fear and IND Fear and greed index. As of this morning it's still saying about 60% greed, which I kind of of disagree with. I think bitcoin sort of in this period where we're sort of chopping sideways a little bit from the recent highs where we got around middle of March to where we are now, bitcoin's down about 12%. We got as low as about 18 or 19% with bitcoin. But some of the altcoins have really taken a bit of a hit now. We've had a small bounce, but really what we're seeing at the moment is really a lack of narrative. Like the market has been pushing towards the bitcoin halving event for so long and it's actually what happened in the 2020 Bitcoin halving is once we hit that event for the weeks and, and probably the next two months, the market really didn't know what to do. So even if we look at Solana from a, from an all time high perspective down to where we are now, sorry, this is market cap. If we go to Solana, we've seen a lot of these altcoins just really haven't hit any sort of, I guess, bottom like I think altcoins potentially have a little way further to go down. I mean the, the bottom of the recent local bottom was down about 40% in the last couple of months. But if we really zoom out, we've got to remember we've come on such a huge run. I mean some of these altcoins were down, you know, 70, 80% from, from their sort of multi year lows, you know, running up as high as, you know, multiples, hundreds of percent like Solana did about 150% from its sort of yearly lows. So look, we've got to keep things in perspective and you know, the bitcoin and crypto market are run up for about seven months straight of green candles, which you very rarely see in the crypto space. But I want to share back end of this video some of the altcoins I'm looking at, at deploying probably in the next couple of weeks. I share our investments, live with our members, but I'll share with you just what I'm thinking and then if you want to really know exactly, you know, when and what entry points for investing, do that over with our membership. I'm going to share with you some of those thoughts today. I guess what the first chart I really wanted to share with you, just to remind you of how the last bitcoin halving played out was that we had sort of this correction period after the 2020 Bitcoin halving. As I said, probably about two to four months. And this was really the market just getting a general feel of where it's at. You know, we, you know, we had a, obviously a reduction in supply. We had a lot of momentum coming up into the, this bitcoin halving. Probably, you know, in February, March, bitcoin ran from 40,000 to 60,000 in just a matter of weeks. Then we had a pretty nice correction and Right now we're sort of in this choppiness stage which can be the hardest to buy. You know, probably a lot of you are probably thinking, you know, bitcoin's quite boring, crypto is quite boring. Starting to get quite negative I think sentiment across the board. Social media, it's interesting, I see, you know, online people getting angry when they're mark, when their portfolios down, they start blaming other people, they start thinking that the, the opportunity is over, but it's really not the case. If you look at this chart here, this was the previous bull market from the, from the lows back in Covid of about 4,000, we ran up to 64,000. It was a huge bull market back in 20, 20, 21, but, but we had 13, 10% plus drawdowns. And if you've been listening to my content or you follow me for a little while, I really talk about these opportunities as really being game changing and when the market zigs, you need to zag. And when most people right now are feeling bearish, they're feeling a little bit depressive. Their portfolio is probably down 30, 40, 50% depending on how many altcoins they have in their portfolio. These are really the times to accumulate. You know, if you've got cash on the sidelines, accumulate or if you don't have any cash on the sidelines, really just step away from the screen. I think that's what a lot of people are doing. But, but if you can reallocate, if you can deploy and build up some of those altcoin positions, I really do think these periods right now are a great time to accumulate. Not to say we don't go down further, I think we could continue to bleed over the next month or two. But from a multi year perspective, I think, or at least bull market perspective, I think we've got some really good entry points in some of the altcoins. Now we can see here the US spot bitcoin ETF has really died off since about the first week of April. We've really barely seen any inflows. We've got to remember guys, that the etf, these institutions, and some of them are individuals buying from their brokerage accounts act the same as ret, all right? They are not unhuman. They're going to act with the market, they're going to get FOMO and they're going to react based on what the rest of the market's doing. I think again, we've got to be, we've got to remember that where I've made the most of my money and where I've learned the most in previous bull markets, like where I've actually made a lot of my money is investing in these assets when no one's talking about it or the narratives aren't there or when people have really given up. And I think that is very hard to do in a bear market when really from a multi year perspective no one's really talking about crypto. But, but in these shorter term time frames when we get these pullbacks in bull markets, these are historically amazing times to buy. Now if we look at the correction drawdowns, this bull market compared to previous is still sort of nearly ant size in comparison to the previous drawdown. So you see these prices here. This was the 2011 bull market, 2012, 2015, 17, 2020 and the most recent one. The drawdowns are nowhere near where we've realized in previous bull markets. I mean back in the 2020 bull market we had about a 60 correction, you know, leading up into that sort of second half of the second phase of the bull market. Right now Bitcoin's gone down maybe 20% at best. Yes, altcoins are bleeding a little bit more. But I just want to urge that this is very normal. Like fundamentally nothing has changed for crypto right now. You know, we've got a lot of good stuff happening with you know, the, the Ethereum ETF, the tokenized fund on BlackRock. We've got Bitcoin starting to be seen as this risk off asset and people starting to allocate a lot of news in the, in the world right now that aren't very favorable. You know, we've got the rates decision coming out on May 1, which would be interesting to see what they do with rates. We think they're going to hold steady, you know, especially with the awful stuff that's happening in the Middle east at the moment with the war. Like that's not great for markets either. You know, there's a lot of sort of and even defi with the sec, you know, putting in the wells notice against Uniswap. Like there's a lot of catalysts from a news perspective to not really drive sentiment. And there is really isn't that next narrative to grab onto at the moment in the market. And that's where finding these entry points and understanding entries and exits, which I know a lot of you want to think about and it's what we work a lot at, collective shift is those exit strategies, portfolio allocation, I like to use a mix of different analysis styles I think a lot of influencers that you might follow might have one or maybe two different analysis styles where they're just a TA expert or they just do fundamental analysis. For example, at Collective Shift we have a team of five analysts and we like to look at the different perspectives of the market where we can overlay on chain overlay, fundamental analysis, sentiment and technicals to get some sort of opinion. And really from a, from our perspective in the short term with those different, you know, analytical, I guess, viewpoints, I really do think the next couple of months could be quite choppy. I said this in my last video and I mentioned I had an interview with Cointelegraph pre halving that you can go and have a look at, which was that I did expect a sell off post bitcoin halving. It's what happened back when the ETF happened. And I do expect that these are actually, you know, great buying opportunities, great accumulation points, which I'll speak about in a second. But you know, I'm a big believer in defi. I think defi is a great sector that's been bled even further, I think because of the SEC lawsuit against Uni Swap Labs. As I mentioned, we've got the spot Eth ETF application coming up. I'm not I overly confident that's going to get approved. And we've also got the rates decision coming up on May 1st. There's a lot of moving pieces in the world right now that, you know, aren't huge catalysts for bitcoin driving up. But I wanted to mention like in the last two cycles ago how I grew my portfolio to over a million dollars. And that was just purely from having conviction and making sure I doubled down in these moments, like these moments when crypto seems sort of boring and people have sort of forgotten about it and walked away. These consolidation points are just amazing times to build your portfolio. And you know, in the past I've had, you know, when I haven't made as much money as what I could have. I had 20, 30, 40 different altcoins. I had spread across different things, I was across different chains, I had different wallets. And it's quite hard to build a substantial portfolio, I find when you have such a thin spread of different altcoins. What I've now done is I've really consolidated, well two cycles ago consolidated down to less than 10 tokens and I have a lot of conviction in those tokens and I've really been able to add quite a substantial amount of capital into each of those altcoins to ensure that if I am right, and I have been right so many times that, you know, I can actually return, you know, I guess not necessarily always life changing, but a good amount of returns on those individual investments. And what I mean by that is yes, I get things wrong, but in the past I've looked back and gone, man, I've been right so many times, but I haven't backed myself to have enough capital in each of those investments to make sure that when those things do turn into 2, 5, 10x, that is really changing the lens of my portfolio growth. Where if you have a small amount in 20, 20, 30, 40 coins, you might get those ones that do 5 or 10x returns, but you might also have 5 or 5 to 10 that don't, don't perform that well. And over time, the difference between having a higher percentage allocation or a high dollar value in a smaller amount of coins versus a lower amount into more coins really outweighs, you know, in future performance. If you have that conviction, you can back yourself on those, you know, lesser amount or lesser volume of coins. And also when it comes to selling, it becomes so much easier to create an exit strategy when you know what each of those coins do. I speak to a lot of our members, especially our platinum, you know, members that come in and they don't. The biggest, the biggest issue that they have is they don't know when to exit. They have a large portfolio and we sit down and we sort of work through what exit strategies look like. But it can be very difficult if you have a lot of coins, especially if you're barreling into, you know, meme coins and you have sort of that degen fund which again, from a portfolio allocation perspective, I, I didn't make money on meme coins or highly speculative coins. I've always tried to back good fundamental projects and I've always had a large amount of bitcoin and eth in my portfolio at all times. I think that's a big mistake a lot of people make is they go too far down the risk curve when things get frothy. And perhaps for a lot of you, you know, you've barreled into your altcoins, you've barreled into meme coins at the height of the mania. And yes, I think those meme coins will come back over the long term. We definitely had a local top, but your portfolio is probably bleeding right now and it can be quite painful to look at that and see your portfolio down 40, 50, 60%. I was even speaking to a platinum client today that has poured a large sum of money, over a million US into a, into a crypto fund. And even they had less than 25% allocated to Bitcoin and ethics, they had 75% allocated to altcoins. So they've been underperforming for the last two or three years. You know, they've been underwater. And I think that's primarily due to an overallocation of altcoins. Like, I'm a big believer you can make a lot of money in altcoins, but I'm also a big believer in bitcoin and Ethereum being the meat and potatoes of your altcoin, of your, of your portfolio. I really think you should be holding at least 50% in Bitcoin and these to really level out that volatility. And at the end of the day, you know, the more risk that you want, the higher your altcoin allocation, but also the higher the volatility and the bigger the drawdowns you'll have in these periods of time where if you're stacking predominantly bitcoin and ETH during those run ups and then in these corrections you can add cash into the altcoins like I'm, you know, about to do. I think that is a better risk to reward strategy. You know, I own a lot of Ethereum and I think Ethereum's potentially underperformed up into this point. But holding a lot of BTC and ETH allows me to be a bit more secure and I feel a little bit more protected during these corrections. And the cash I do have on the sidelines I can now deploy into some of those altcoins that are down 30, 40, 50% and get a good entry, if that makes sense. So I want to share with you a little bit of some five or six altcoins that I'm looking at and I'll get to those in a second. I just wanted to touch on, just before I forget though, is just, just be really aware of those peak moments of euphoria. You know, we really felt that probably in middle of March, leading up to the bitcoin halving, when everything's crazy, everything's exciting in hindsight's 20 20. But remember those feelings when the market's going absolutely bananas, everyone's making money, you know, the media is talking about, that's the feeling that you're going to feel. But even greater at the peak of this bull market. And again, back to the, the different analysis types that we use at Collective Shift to help us with navigating when the top of the cycle will be, you know, if we look at the fear and in greed index we look at sentiment, we look at things like on chain analysis, like the MV RV ratio, we're looking at like when wallets are starting to rotate out. All of that is very helpful. But at the end of the day it's really back down to human emotion and human psychology. And I think if you can really get a grasp of that feeling that you feel in the euphoria, that is usually the right time to start taking profits. I didn't take profits in the last couple of months because I feel as though we're still probably about 40 or 50% of the way through this bull market. I think we have a long way to go. I think what's going to push us into those new territories and get back to those positions is bitcoin continue to grind up. I think over the next couple of months the market economics of the lower supply will start to come into play. People start to buy again. Once we get through the rate decisions, maybe once we get a little bit more understanding of the war and how that's playing out. But I think bitcoin will grind towards that sort of 70, 80 would break, break all time highs again. We'll get a little bit more narrative. We'll push to that $100,000 mark perhaps later this year. And I think once we break through that $100,000 mark USD, we'll start to get the retail investors come back in. We'll start to get that narrative that bitcoin isn't dead and people will start to look for those alternative coins. What are those coins that aren't as expensive as bitcoin? You know that we know how retail act. They don't like to buy the expensive coins. And that's where having a good old coin allocation can grow our entire portfolio from like a leverage BTC or ETH position. And at the peak of that cycle, try and sell down. And for me, I'm going to try and really stack bitcoin for the long period of time. For those that know me, you know, I'm trying to buy a home for my parents. I want to diversify at the top of this cycle. Like most of my wealth, 99% of my wealth is in crypto right now. The goal for me is to sell down probably 40 to 60% of my entire portfolio and diversify into property and equities and a few other things. But for the remaining 40%, I'm going to sell down pretty much all of my altcoin positions. Altcoins generally underperform Bitcoin 99% of the time. Bitcoin will outperform in a bear market and they want to hold bitcoin for a long period of time. I'm really trying to build a, you know, a long term bitcoin stack for the next 20, 30 years. I think bitcoin is going to outperform everything and you know, over time the bitcoin stack for me is going to be something I want to hold through the next, you know, bear market, bull market, I don't really care. And with the cash and the diversification I've been able to create during the sell off of this peak of this cycle with those altcoins reallocate and buy back in at the next cycle. So just want to quickly share with you some of the old coins. I'm looking at the moment Solana. I've got a good position in Solana. I'm going to probably be looking to add to this very soon. I think Solana, as I mentioned just before, is about sort of that 35 down in a pretty good, you know, re entry point here. Historically altcoins will correct 30 to 50% during bull markets. So not to say we don't have another sell off but if we're looking at a multi month period over the future, I think we've got a really good entry point here. I'm still super bullish on Solana. We've got a lot of that momentum coming out of its Crisis back in 2020, 2022. Sorry. A lot of, a lot of meme coins being built on Solana. A lot of developers, a lot of activity, a lot of fees being generated on the network. It's still having a few problems with the chain but ultimately I'm a big ETH fan and I think Solana is a good hedge against Ethereum. This next bull market make is an interesting one. Make has been around, it's an old horse, it's been around for a long time. It's going through a token upgrade at the moment that should be coming out I think in the next few weeks. The token upgrade has a range of different things basically bringing a lot of the economics and different things they had going on together and I really think that's going to drive a lot of additional value and utility to the token as well as they're doing a token split which will bring the ratio down to about $0.15 post. Token split. I know that doesn't make any fundamental difference to the token but psychologically for Retail investors. I do believe that that is quite an important narrative. If you look at something like XRP for example, which I'm not a big fan of psychologically, a low price of a token is what attracts retail investors in, in a, in a bull market. So there, yeah, makers down about 30. A pretty good entry point for me as well there. Ronan, big fan of gaming. I think gaming is going to be a big sector for, for this year and next year and and beyond. But it is very hard to back the individual game and token that's going to actually perform well. I mean I'm not a big gaming player myself and I wouldn't back myself to really understand which games are going to win or not. But I also know the games don't have a very long life cycle either. Like unless it's like a NBA game or an NH NHL game or Call of Duty that's got a really good brand. A lot of these games sort of come and go and I feel as though backing the blockchain from a fundamental perspective gives a lot more utility and value and longevity over my investments. And it also diversifies my risk of not just having to back one individual project. I can back a blockchain like Ronin that you know is, is, is focused on building, you know, a layer or infrastructure for gaming projects that you know, you know, let's say one gaming project kicks off or two or three. I'm going to get all that exposure on the Ronin blockchain. So pretty excited about Ronin. I think that's, that's going to perform hopefully pretty well over the next couple of years. Ethereum, I think Ethereum still is the best, one of the best wrist to reward plays right now. You know, we've got the potential upcoming ETF, we've got the BlackRock tokenized fund, we've got a lot of just good network effects and I really think Ethereum will come back into the spotlight later this year now that bitcoin has had a lot of the spotlight with the bitcoin halving. I think Ethereum's going to come back and I've got a large position in east for this year and beyond. I think it's going to perform really well, you know, and hopefully some of the layer twos as well. You know, I own Polygon has really underperformed but I think the networking and the upgrade that we've recently gone through with ETH with the Dan can upgrade is going to really help out and continue to strengthen the network. Maple, if you've been following me for a Little while Maple is a fan of Maple is one of my favorite projects. Biggest headwind with, with Maple right now is a Defi project and you know, I made a pretty big entry, about $5.50. We recently ran about $30. It's now down to about $12. I think recently with the SEC World's Notice with Uni Swap. I love Maple. I think it's a great project. But ultimately we are currently in a bit of a, a crossroads with the sec. So until we get out of the headwinds of, of the SEC and Uni Swap gets some sort of, I guess, regulatory clarity, I think your D5 is going to continue to probably underperform in the short term, but still for the, for the long term I am quite bullish. Probably won't be adding to the Maple position until we get a little bit more clarity from the SEC though as it could continue to go down further. And last but not least, this is a, a very risky high risk token.

Transparent. Sorry I did. I forgot to mention I do own all these tokens. Full transparency, very risky token dmt. It's a lower cap token. It's a new narrative that's kind of being built around layer threes at the moment. Fundamentally I'm really excited about the tokenomics. They're building basically a web3 twitch and they're starting to grow in terms of content creator and also audience levels. And the, the token is a really cool reward mechanism. They've got some nice token burn mechanics. They are bootstrapped but ultimately a very low cap coin 99 chance this thing doesn't play out. So please be careful. Super high risk, but one I wanted to mention anyway in terms of a narrative that I think reminded me of actually the early metaverse days when I invested heavily in the metaverse back in sort of 2018, 2019, before the metaverse was really a thing. I really sense that similar narrative with, with layer three and, and you know, dmt, the, the Senko game itself kind of reminded me of that. So that's why I've had a bit of a throw at the stumps there on dmt.

Now that basically concludes from an altcoin position where I, where I'm looking at. I just wanted you all to just really be aware of like your psychology when going through this bull market and you know, ultimately understanding when it feels the, the hardest to buy, that usually is the right time to buy. And when it feels the hardest to sell, that usually is the right time to sell. And I'll do some more videos on, you know, exit strategy and timing and when we come into the market. But really understand your psychology. Think about and document how you felt in the middle of March when things were getting euphoric and think about how you're feeling now. This is only going to be leveraged and exacerbated in a bull market and ultimately the biggest competitor that you have to making money in a bull market is your own head. This is why 90% of people don't make any money because they get ahead of themselves, they don't sell, they think it's going to go up forever and they round trip the market. So I really want you to make sure you're taking profits this cycle. Get your strategy in order to get your plan together and make sure you're having a good fundamental, you know, portfolio of bitcoin and eth. Don't over analyze, don't over expose yourself on altcoins and meme coins when the mania is going the FOMO because you will draw to the downside in these corrections. So hopefully that's been helpful. If you like this video I'd love you to go and check out some of my other videos. I've done some stuff on altcoin strategy, tax, ETFs, you know, strategy, different altcoin sectors I'm looking at. Head over and check those out and I'd love for you to leave me subscribe if you enjoyed this video or leave me some feedback in the comments and I'll see you on the next video. Thanks guys.