Making Millions From Crypto Comes Down To THIS

Ben Simpson argues that crypto investing follows a four-year "super cycle" tied to Bitcoin halvings and that money is made in bull markets by preparing during bear markets. He presents Collective Shift metrics (total crypto market cap, stablecoin supply, altcoin dominance), evidence of low retail activity and high long-term Bitcoin holder accumulation, and links central-bank liquidity to crypto rallies. He recommends a three-part strategy for the next halving-driven bull market: dollar-cost-average accumulation now, stay informed through the cycle, and plan concrete exit/profit-taking rules.
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There's been one constant in crypto since its early beginnings and it's the four year super cycle. Based off this bitcoin halving event, it's really important to respect this four year cycle. I didn't when I first got into crypto about seven years ago and tried to fumble my way through a bear market, trying to create money, trying to make trades and execute things that were trying to build my portfolio. But the reality is the money is made in a bull market. You need to prepare yourself in this bear market to take advantage of the bull. Trying to fumble your way through a bear market, increase your exposure and to increase your wealth is very, very difficult. Respect the four year cycle and that's what I've learned. And today I'm going to show you my strategy on the upcoming halving.
To really show you the impact of the four year cycles. I've got some data here that the Collective Shift analysts have collected to show you the growth of every four years. The biggest one being market capitalization in US dollars in 2014 we're at 6 billion. 2018, 126 billion and 2022, 795 billion. That's a 531% increase in four years. If we look at just the Bitcoin price, 2014, $320, 2018, $3,740 and 2022, 16,500. By zooming out, you can really get a good scope of the growth of these four year periods. But by looking too short term, like most people do looking intraday, the bitcoin price has gone down 1%. What's going on? Or the Bitcoin price goes down 6% over the week and there's panic stations. I've stopped looking at my portfolio. I made that mistake when I first got into crypto. Constantly refreshing, constantly seeing what's going on, it's only going to make you panic and frustrated when the price isn't going up. I've completely forgotten about prices. It's basically not relevant. If you're looking long term and you're looking to build your portfolio over multiple years in crypto, just forget about the price, remember the four year cycles and make rain when the bull market comes. And that halving event actually comes in April. At Collective Shift we've created our own set of metrics to help us closely track the growth of the industry. So many people just look at the bitcoin price as the way to track how the bitcoin and the crypto market's going. But that's just a price and value are two separate things. You've got to dig a little bit deeper. So three metrics we would like to look at is the total crypto market cap, which I just mentioned, the total stablecoin supply and altcoin dominance. Stablecoin supply is an interesting one that we've been tracking very close. Stablecoins is one of the best use cases I've seen for the transaction of currency anywhere in the world. And we're seeing the year to date percentage down only about 10%, although the wider market cap has gone down quite a lot. We're sitting at 138 billion dollar market cap value for stablecoins. So I believe we're coming up to the end of this cycle and into the new cycle. There's a few reasons for that. One, as I mentioned, the bitcoin halving. Go check out that video if you don't understand it. But that event's coming up in April where we're going to get a supply shock on the market in an already illiquid bitcoin supply market. Exchange volumes are going to increase as retail investors come in and that narrative spurs around the bitcoin halving. There's going to be very little bitcoin actually available on market to buy, which is going to push up that price. Number two is the price drawdowns from all time high. This is a really cool one as we can see the price drawdown in price compared to previous cycles on average, each halving. As you look back, the the bitcoin price has gone down close to 85 or 95% each cycle. But by looking at the patterns, we're very similar to previous cycles, giving us a good indication that we're near the bottom or the bottom has just previously gone. Now the next big one is sentiment. Sentiment in crypto right now is completely bearish. It's all gone out the window. There seems to be no interest. No one cares about crypto and all retail investors are gone. And this is backed up by the crypto monthly exchange volume. We're at three year lows back to October 2020. We're at the same level of transaction volume as we were back then. This is really telling for me about the retail investors and their interest in this cycle. Right now retail interest is gone, meaning that predominantly altcoins. And the reason why altcoins will continue to go down in your portfolio is because there's very little buy pressure. A lot of the altcoin volumes come from retail investors and right now there's Basically none. So there's very little buy side pressure on altcoins, but probably very high sell pressure and that's why altcoins continue to bleed. But on the flip side, the other chart which is most telling to me is the Bitcoin long term holders chart. This is showing us the amount of bitcoin bought and held by bitcoin holders that haven't sold in over a year. About 14.8 million bitcoin are held by bitcoin holders that haven't sold in over a year. I'm a part of that chart and probably a lot of you are part of that chart. The OGs continue to buy, institutions like MicroStrategy continue to buy. We are just dollar cost averaging day after day building the bitcoin stack. There's not an infin supply of bitcoin. We know this, there's only a limited supply. And this chart is going directly up and to the right. So while the retail investors are asleep at the wheel, they will come back into a bull market and they will be buying all the assets that we're buying now. This is one of the biggest lessons I learned coming through crypto. You need to be on the buy side when people are selling the majority of selling like now in a bear market. And you need to be on the sell side when the majority of the market is buying. You need to be in the top 10%. Usually only 10% of crypto investors actually make money because 90% are like sheep. Until Bitcoin hits 50 or 60,000, they're not buying. And when it they come in waves. Uber drivers buying, your plumber's buying, your mum and dad are asking you about crypto and you're going to be the ones that are going to be selling at that time. Because you know right now the time is to buy and accumulate those undervalued assets. The next bit which we know correlates so closely to the bitcoin chart is the Fed and the increased capital that they inject into the market. As we can see on this chart here, the bitcoin and central bank balance sheet growth is directly correlated with global liquidity. As central banks print more money, it tends to find its way to bitcoin. That's because as more money comes into the economy, that money is looking for more risk on assets because it's easier to find that capital. But right now is the opposite. There isn't increased liquidity, meaning it's harder to find money, which means it doesn't find its way to risk on assets like Bitcoin, it tends to go into things like cash and bonds. Now we know how the crypto cycle works, it's imperative to have a strategy to actually profit from this cycle. The first cycle I went through in crypto, I did not have a strategy. I did not understand these four year cycles. I rode my portfolio up, I thought it was rich, didn't do anything about it and wrote it all the way down. And I'm sure many of you have been through that same process. If you'd like to see my step by step strategy on how to create your own investing strategy, check out this video here and it's going to give you my step by step breakdown on how to do it yourself. But at the end of the day, having a strategy boils down to three key things. Having your buy strategy in order to. For me, it's dollar cost averaging during this period. I think we're going to look back on this period right now and see that it's the ultimate accumulation phase. Bitcoin, I believe, is severely undervalued. I've just bought two new altcoins in my portfolio. I think the altcoin run will happen soon. Maybe I was a little bit early on getting into altcoins, but I've got that patience to hold out and I know that speculative drive from retail investors will increase those altcoin sectors. The other thing about your buying strategy is to understand what to not buy and who to not follow. Because we all know as soon as the bull market comes back, your favorite crypto guru and expert is going to have the next Ethereum killer, which is probably just another pump and dump is going to come out and tell you to buy, understand what you're buying and what you're not buying. Because in emotional markets you're going to get that FOMO and those emotions are going to come back and you're going to make poor decisions. So write down that buy strategy number two is staying on top of the market. As the cycles go through and prices started to increase, it's really important to stay across the market now for a lot of you, I know you're busy, so subscribe to my channel and I'm going to keep you across the market as best as I can and we're going to give you those indicators of when to start to get out of the market. For those of you that are here now, in this bear market, you're going to be the best prepared because getting your sorted stuff sorted now versus a bull market is going to get you ahead of 95% of people, number three is planning your exit. This was my biggest mistake I made through my first cycle, riding it all the way up and all the way down. And again, a lot of you have done this. Planning your exit, when you're going to exit, how you're going to exit and what you're going to exit is very, very, very important. Having that plan, which you can execute step by step in an emotional bull market will make you money. If you do not have that profit taking strategy, you will go through and you'll hope it's going to go higher. And when the music stops, the bull market ends, you're going to be no better off. And I've seen it time and time again, bull markets end extremely quickly and, and that's why right now it's important to do it while there's no emotion. And you can just use your brain to understand what the logistical movements are going to be in your portfolio to execute in a bull market. So as we can see using the data in this video, the crypto super cycle is just around the corner. I believe the next bull market is going to be absolutely face melting. I'm so excited, but I'm so excited for you to actually make money in this next cycle. And that's why that preparation of that strategy of how you're going to exit, what you're going to buy and when you're going to do it is absolutely imperative. So hopefully that video has been super helpful. If you'd like more details about educating yourself to win in this upcoming cycle, please check out the other videos in my channel. I'm here to help you, teach you all the lessons I've learned in making money in crypto so you can implement yourself. Thanks so much and I'll see you on the next video.










