Ben Simpson argues that cryptocurrency investing in the current year is fundamentally different from prior cycles because capital has shifted from retail to institutional investors. He attributes the change to large ETF allocations (Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum ETFs), which provide easier access for institutions and high-net-worth investors, making Bitcoin a perceived safe asset and reducing institutional interest in altcoins; he also contends that traditional four-year halving cycles are obsolete due to liquidity-driven markets and notes political tailwinds from the U.S. presidency favoring crypto.
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Investing into cryptocurrency this year is completely different to any other year of my past nine years of investing into crypto because of one major reason. It is now institutionally led, not retail led. So if you've been in crypto for a little while now and your portfolio is not performing and you're getting frustrated, it's because you haven't updated your strategy based on where the capital is coming from. Used to be in 20, 2017 and 2021, the retail market will come and push the altcoin market up. And that's why everyone was making money. Now there's really no retail investors at all. And it's all been driven by institutions because of the ETFs, the Bitcoin ETF, the Solana ETF, Ethereum ETF. All of these new ETF allocations have changed everything. They've been some of the fastest growing ETFs on the planet. And it is driving easier access for high net worth investors, sophisticated investors and institutions to get access to crypto and bitcoin. Bitcoin is now being seen as the safe asset and guess what? These institutions are not buying altcoins. So you have to be far more selective on your altcoins. And that is why, if you've been in this space for a little while, a lot of your altcoins, you're still hoping and holding. The third one is that cycles and markets are liquidity driven. So many people talk about the four year cycle. It was something that we believed, you know, a few years ago when everything was lined up to the four year cycle around the halving. Now that in my opinion is completely dead because it is all based on liquidity. When money expands, when you get more money into the economy, that drives risk on assets up like crypto. And the fourth one is the political tailwinds. Now Trump is in the seat, he's really pushing crypto to be the number one in the US and he wants crypto to continue to adopt major interest across the world. And he wants crypto to win. And he has a personal vested interest in making sure crypto wins because he owns a lot of it, including his family. So really before it was retail hype, extreme ups and downs, and now we're institutionally led, we've got steady ranges and the cycles are far more extended. And that is why you need to be looking at the market over speculation.
