Ben Simpson argues that the traditional four-year crypto cycle is effectively dead and that crypto price movements are driven primarily by global liquidity conditions rather than an internal, repeatable cycle. He notes significant on-chain sell pressure from long-term holders, elevated altcoin supply with weak retail demand, and a recent record liquidation; despite this, Simpson is bullish, expecting structural gains potentially into 2026 as rates fall, QT ends, and capital rotates into crypto.
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Is the four year cycle dead? I believe it is. I believe it is. However, right now we're seeing huge amounts of cell pressure we're seeing on chain from long term holders thinking that the four year cycle is the end of crypto. If we look every single four year cycle in the past, it is always lined up with global liquidity. Crypto is a small part of a macro financial layer. The world doesn't revolve around crypto. And also the data set for a four year cycle is literally like less than three cycles or four cycles. There's not enough data to confirm that he's 100. Correct. I believe bitcoin and crypto is led by global liquidity. That is the thing you need to pay attention to. And also now we're seeing such a huge amount of supply in the altcoin space, but the demand isn't even, isn't higher than that that we're not seeing retail interest because retail have lost a lot of money in previous cycles. A lot of the old coins haven't reached past their all time highs yet. I believe we're going well into 2026 and ideally we're going to potentially continue to grind higher while this structure, this market is strong. People think that crypto is like it's dead, it's boring, whatever. No, we're actually in a, just a really strong market. There's huge amounts of sell pressure right now, but yet the market is still holding up really well. Two weeks ago we had the biggest liquidation in history in crypto, bigger than ftx and the market's held up really, you know, pretty well. All things considered. We are in a strong market. I believe we're going to structurally move higher over into 2026. The four year cycle in my opinion is dead and it's driven off global liquidity and what was announced recently, rates coming down, QT ending and the market of the stock market is ripping. Gold has ripped and now the money rotates into bitcoin and crypto. I'm very bullish. I believe we're going well into five years in this cycle.
