My Honest Thoughts On The Crypto Market Right Now

Hey guys, just wanted to jump on, really off the cuff. I've had a morning coffee and wanted to talk about the markets because we're in a, an interesting time in crypto where we're a month away from the U.S. election, we've got war escalation in the U.S. a lot of uncertainty and I feel as though we're sort of on a knife's edge where it could go either way. Like I'm ultra bullish long term, as you know, and I think medium to long term prices will increase regardless. But I think there's so much uncertainty particularly around the election that people are concerned about Harris administration. And I think if a Harris administration gets elected in the short term, I don't think it's going to be good for crypto and if the war continues to escalate in the U.S. i don't think it's going to be good. But if we think about the fundamentals and long term with the M2 money supply and printers firing up, rates coming down, then that's, you know, amazing environments for, for bitcoin especially. Right. And I think long term, regardless of who gets elected, that bitcoin will do really well. Bitcoin hit all time highs with the Biden administration where rates are high, inflation was high and everything was against crypto and bitcoin still hit an all time high. Now there's only been 24 altcoins that have actually outperformed Bitcoin, you know, year to date out of the 15 plus thousand that are, you know, in the market. And that's a really interesting stat because I talked to a lot of people who want to like increase the risk of their portfolio and try and get more returns by buying more altcoins, but it's actually done the opposite. And Bitcoin's up 35, 40% year to date. And most altcoins or the others category, which is the top 150, I think altcoins on average is down 11 or 12%. So you know, on average if you bought altcoins or you have heavier allocation altcoins this year, you're down, you know, know Ethereum's underperformed. Everything's, you know, really underperformed against bitcoin. And I think the one big thing that's different about this cycle is the fact that there are thousands and thousands more coins this cycle. You know, I saw a stat that you know, on Coingecko, I think it's like 15 or 16,000, you know, on Coingecko, but there's a lot more that don't even make it there. There's like literally thousands of coins being created every day. And with limited capital and limited retail investors, like there's not a lot of new money coming into the space to even get into it. Right. And I think that's why meme coins have performed so well is because they are a pure token. They are a pure representation of a market. There are no vcs, there's no lockups, you know, they're fully diluted, Everything is there, right? There's no increasing supply for a lot of them. Well, some of them have increasing supply, but there's no token unlocks and there's no people, you know, with huge cell pressure, you know, getting early access to these coins. Like a lot of these other projects happen. I think that's what, you know, a big problem with a lot of these altcoins are they, they have huge, you know, cell pressure. And there's, you know, this back quarter of 2024, I think I read there's, you know, one or two billion dollars even in the first couple of weeks of October of token unlocks, even, you know, Solana and sui, you know, arguably some of the biggest, biggest assets. So, you know, I think VCS continue to back these infrastructure plays because it has so much potential to get into the billions of dollars of valuations. But it doesn't help consumer applications. Like what consumer application has actually made it to the mainstream. In crypto there's literally nothing maybe poly market, right? We're still missing that consumer application that people can back and invest in. And I think that's why a lot of the consumer applications in crypto are not getting high valuations is because, well, one, they're not really solving a problem that, you know, the world needs solve. And then there's not a lot of, you know, user adoption and then there's also not a lot of VC backing it either. They're going all into infrastructure. So what you get is this massive over capitalization of, you know, layer ones. For example, there are so many layer one blockchains. Do we really need all these layer one blockchains? You know, yes, sorry, maybe not. But that's what VCs are getting behind. That's what creates the narratives. And now we're onto this new, like new next gen layer ones, you know, Sui and Berro Chain and Aptos and all these other chains. And you know, it's really just narrative driven at the moment. But I think fundamentally, like what we're missing in crypto is we're just like we're actually missing the consumer application. Like we need the chat GPT of crypto. Where is that? It's so frustrating that I've been in this space for seven or eight years and like you go and still talk to anyone outside of crypto, the only thing they really know of is Bitcoin and they don't understand it still. And when you say that, you know, if you even the idea of saying there's 15,000 other cryptocurrency projects out there and what does it do, you start talking about any of them and it just, you just get this blank look in the face like it's so confusing what, what, you know, crypto still does. And I'm, I'm ultra bullish on Defi. You know, I'm ultra bullish on, you know, Deepin and AI and all these things. But like still, what problem is that solving right now that real people need solved? We haven't got that yet. We really do need that chatgpt of crypto. Hopefully that comes soon. You know, coming back from token 2049 in Singapore, like the, the biggest talk from the VCS was that, you know, there's not enough good founders to even create these good consumer applications. So you know, I, I think for me the way I'm playing this cycle is that I'm simplifying it even more. I'm still ultra bullish Bitcoin, I'm ultra, ultra bullish Ethereum, I'm ultra bullish Solana. I think these chains and bigger projects are going to do really well. I'm big on Defi. You know, Maple for me has been a big investment that I've had for a long time and it continues to increase tvo. It's actually getting, you know, companies outside of crypto using their, using their product to earn a yield and you know, using real world assets to actually, you know, get, get, you know, a good return on the, on investment. So I'm, I'm ultra bullish on that. You know, AI. I just think in general is, is massively.

Under, not underappreciated but the knowledge around it is very low. Like even me, you know, going and listening to some of these talks around the AI over in Token, like it is some super smart people, right? For the, for the plane person. Like you're not going to understand a lot of it, but I think it's going to have a massive impact and again a narrative. I think it's going to be, you know, very exciting into, into a retail wave. But again, you know, all these Assets are well and good, but they've all underperformed against bitcoin. And it's really going to take, in my opinion, bitcoin to reach all time highs and break through and get that sort of price appreciation before we start to see the other assets move. And the perfect example of that is the ETH BTC chart. You look at previous bull markets, you know, it doesn't tend to outperform until like the last, you know, month or two of a bull market. When bitcoin's spent, it's had its time and now they start to rotate, you know, capital from, from, from sort of top to bottom. So I just think at the moment you don't want to over allocate into altcoins in my opinion because I think bitcoin will continue to do well regardless of the election, regardless of what happens. But I think, you know, in a, in a Harris administration, in, in the short term, I don't think altcoins are going to perform well. I think they could continue to be squee.

You know, I think it's going to be hard for altcoins get their limelight until we start to see retail investors come back. So you know, in terms of sell strategy and timing, I still think the four year cycle is intact. My sale strategy still is to sell down all of my old coins at the peak of this cycle. I still think that's middle to next year in my opinion. But you know, in terms of looking at, you know, bitcoin, that's compounding at 45% year over year for the last 10 years, it's up 140% over the last 12 months. Like I think we need to lower our expectations on like trying to get these 10, 20, 30x returns because I think that's effectively going to do the opposite because you're going to add more risk into assets that aren't going to get a lot of attention chasing returns and essentially you underplay the bull market. You know, a lot of the focus and attention is on, on the majors right now. I think simplifying that again, cutting the crap, cutting the old coins, that we're hoping that they're going to come back. I just don't see the old chains, the old layer ones, some of the metaverse, metaverse coming back. It's all about the new narratives, AI new layer ones, blockchains. But I, I just think we've got to keep coming back and not, you know, underappreciate bitcoin for, for what it is. And you know, if there's anything that I've learned over the last, you know, six or seven years in crypto, is it to never, never underappreciate the, the big, the big guy in the room, and that's bitcoin. I think we will have an altcoin season at some point, but I don't think that's going to be until potentially next year. And that's when you can rotate capital into, into altcoins at the start of that. You don't have to risk now and sit and wait. I've got some pretty good altcoin positions, but I've been in those for a couple of years. Like, if you're wanting to add risk now, I think just hold out, at least get through this US Election because on the downside, the war escalates and that's not good for any markets, right? Crypto does what it does. It's super liquid. If people need money, they're going to run to bitcoin because it's a very easy way to get access to, you know, you know, basically pour money out. Like if you, if you're, you know, trying to get money out of gold or stocks on the weekend, like it can't happen. Right? That's what's the most beautiful thing about bitcoin is it's fully liquids 247 and you can get access to it anytime. But that's why the market reacts so quick. And when sentiment changes, bitcoin and crypto is the first to act. So, you know, in terms of how I see this cycle playing out, you know, I still think it's going to be a little bit choppy for October. I do think we have a good November and December, but I think it's heavily dependent on the election and the war. Like, we can't, we can't not look at the macro factors of what's playing out. And, you know, the reality is we've been chopping sideways for nearly six or seven months now. It's actually been quite boring. But, you know, bitcoin continues to dominate and you know, those that have tried to add risk is, you know, they're probably backfired. You know, I think meme coins, again, one of the most pure forms of token representation of society and communities. Online communities love them, but you've got to be very careful because there's so many of them and they come and go. The narrative come and go very fast. So remember, when things get euphoric, please take profits, you know, sell down. When you've made a good bag don't get too greedy. We've all made the mistake in the past and, you know, you really don't want to make that mistake this cycle, because I think this is the cycle where you're going to be able to make, you know, awesome returns. You don't want to get through this cycle and look back and go, I didn't sell enough. We've all got, you know, high aspirations of where this cycle could go and how much money we could make. But at the end of the day, you've got to sell and things will get euphoric, things will get crazy, things will go wild. Make sure you hit the sell button. You know, get a friend, get an accountability partner. Listen to, listen to someone, listen to me, listen to some, you know, someone online to make sure you make the right move and, you know, do something that's actually going to help you in your life. You know, crypto is crypto. Life is life. Use crypto to help do other things outside of, you know, just refreshing the portfolio and have a lot of numbers on, on your portfolio. Like actually, let's do something this cycle. Let's make a difference and let's actually use crypto as a vehicle for all the pain and suffering we go through with these downturns and these choppiness and all this to actually make a difference. Don't go through this cycle and round trip. You know, remember how hard it is to actually make money. Crypto, it's not as easy. Just buy now and sell down the track. So many people just think, so easy. Just throw money in and you know you're going to make, you're going to make money. It's not the same as cycle. It is not the same. Not. You can't just throw money at anything and everything's going to go up. This cycle it's, it's more sophisticated, the market is matured. You've got to be selective. You've got to buy the right assets, you got to sell the right time. You got to be smart. This is a market, it's 1v1. You know, you're versing someone on the other side of the screen. Are you smarter than the other side of the screen? Do you have an edge? If not, stick simple, stick simple and let's crash this bull market. Hopefully that's helpful. See you on the next video.