Trading with Trump in the White House

Hi, Brian McAvoy here with Inside Out Trading. And today we're going to talk about a really fun topic. And, yeah, it's one you got. You have to take into account with your trading. It just, it's a life. And the times we're in, and that is trading with Trump in the White House. Yes, it's. I mean, with past presidents, there might have been some craziness that was going on, but Trump is definitely. And actually, I have to say it's not necessarily even Trump because, I mean, yeah, he's gotten busy since he's gotten. Gotten elected, gotten in the White House, but, man, there's a whole lot of other people around the world that are going kind of crazy and doing a whole lot of just really abnormal stuff besides Trump. So, yes, he's the cause of some of it. And there's other people that are just being all kinds of nonsensical as well. So why talk about this, though? Well, here's the thing. I was having a talk with one of my clients last night, and he was saying that it's kind of frustrating because he loves the system, it's a good system, it's made him a lot of money. But, man, we're running to these periods, these spells, the week of the tariffs going live, perfect example. And we're talking about that. And he's like, so what should I do? Because my system, under those conditions, it doesn't work all that well. It's not built for those conditions. So how can I trade it in a week? Like when the tariffs came out, when the market's just. I mean, there's a whole lot of uncertainty. Not about. There's uncertainty in the markets, but it's uncertainty on the part of the players about what the heck is going to be the result of the tariffs. I mean, what are the tariffs going to be and what's going to be the effect of those. There's a lot of uncertainty about that while we're waiting for the big announcement and once they're in place, the reactions and everything. And so it's like. Well, it's kind of like trading the news for a lot of day traders. This guy that I'm talking with, he's working like the daily charts and stuff. He's not day trading, so he's, he's looking at a longer time frame. But a lot of day traders that I've worked with, simply because news events can create kind of abnormal conditions or. Well, yeah, I mean, abnormal is a reasonable way to look at it. There's Something there's an event that happens that causes an effect in the markets or is likely to. And so with a number of clients that I've had over the years, if they're day trading, in and out and trading fast, charts 1 minute, 5 minute, maybe the 15 minute, you know, they're in and out and same day, usually anywhere from a half hour to three hours, six hours being a long trade, really long trade. If there's a news announcement in the middle of the day, that can throw things, that can throw a wrench into things. And so for a lot of clients that I've worked with, and I learned myself as well, is if this is how you're trading, if we know that this is something that is likely to affect the markets and the way the markets behave, then it's a really good idea to just say, okay, within an hour of any news, eventually I'm going to sit on the sidelines and let whatever happens and then settle down. And so it's just, it's really wise to do that when you're day trading. Well, the thing with Trump and like the tariffs and other things that are going to be happening while he's in the White House because he's going through and cleaning house, which everybody freaks out about, saying, oh my God, Clinton did the same thing. Clinton fired almost 400,000 people out of the government when he got in there and he balanced the budget. A big Clinton fan, but he did do that. I mean, he actually, yeah, he went through it, cleaned out a lot of waste and balanced the budget. So that was cool. Kudos to Bill Clinton. Don't like it, but you did, you did good with that. Trump's doing the exact same thing. Going through cleaning house, getting rid of a lot of waste and fraud and corruption and yay. He's got other stuff going on. Trying to hopefully save the government from going bankrupt and fixing some of the other crap that's been going on. It's geopolitically around the world. But anyway, is he a factor in his administration and some of the other players around the world, are they like big news events? Yes. They're not just news events and announcement, like non farm payroll or whatever. No, this is like tariff announcements. And so it's like, well, we don't have just a news event where you need to watch out for like an hour. It's like maybe all week because we know the market is in an emotional state or very likely to be. And so our strategy or our method, which we know, like if you have a momentum Strategy. It's built for when the markets are moving, there's some momentum to it and it's quote, unquote normal conditions. There's not any big event affecting the markets. It's just the markets being the markets. Well, with the big, the bigger scope of things. Like I said, it's not a momentary event, a news announcement with this, it's like a week long event and a week of unusual circumstances and likely abnormal behavior in the markets or just at least out of the normal behavior in the markets. And so should you trust your system? Probably not. Now that doesn't mean you shouldn't just go into it and say, well, I'm just going to trade my system and I'll just trust it'll work like always. If we know that the conditions are different, then that's not wise to do that. And here's you may be thinking I'm crazy, here's why. Every strategy that's out there is based on a premise where we think something's going on in the marketplace and there's a window of predictability where we can recognize the beginning of it and we can get in on that little window of predictability where there's something going on with the markets and we've seen it over and over and over again. And it's like, yeah, if I can get in on the beginning of it, I know what to expect. The probabilities are high that there's going to be some sort of a response in the markets that gives me an edge as a trader. So every one of those strategies though, pretty much, unless you're trading news and black swans and that kind of stuff, every strategy again is based on a premise that works a lot over time because it's suited to specific conditions under normal behavior of the markets. When we have these small spells, whether it's a two hour event around a news announcement or it's something like the tariffs, where it's a bigger window. Yeah, we have to go into it a little bit differently. And the main thing is it's not that you have to sit on the sidelines. Might be a good idea if you don't know how to go into it with a good strategy, understanding the unusual conditions that we're looking at. But it makes sense to say, all right, I'm going to think it through. We're waiting on the tariffs to get announced, what they're going to be, who they're going to be up against and the response from the other countries and of course the news they're going to Sensationalize the crap out of everything. So they're going to stir up as much emotion as they can, positive or negative. That's just the nature of their business. So understanding this, going into it, it's like, okay, we have unusual conditions. How can we best, if we do want to trade, how can we best trade these conditions? What makes sense? Apply some logic to it. How could I protect myself if I'm wrong or things don't go as I plan, as I expect? How can I protect myself? So this is trading on a little shorter term basis rather than being a good methodical trader where it's like, man, I've got a well defined process. I know exact what to expect from it under normal conditions. And that's what gives me my nice edge. And I know exactly what to expect.% Winning percentage wise and net profit wise every month because I've got it really dialed in for consistency. These are unusual times. So it's almost like you're having to be a discretionary trader. It's like, okay, what are the circumstances that I'm being presented with? What's what strategy makes sense under these conditions and with the available information that I have, how can I go into it, make some profit, protect my capital so that I'm not getting crushed if I'm wrong or things don't go as I expect? But you want to, but like I said, you want to separate the two. Now Trump is going to, he's going to present a lot of profit opportunities for us during this administration. It's just, he's going to, the market's going to be moving and except for little spells like this where, yeah, everybody's waiting in anxiety with the tariffs, it's like we don't know what's going to happen. And so the markets, it's uncertainty in the players in the market, they don't know what to expect. And, and so the players don't know what to do when the tariffs come out. And it's, it's bad news. At least it's known bad news. It's not the anxiety over. We don't know what's going to happen to, well, it sucks, but at least we know what's, and I'm talking about the big institutional investors, the ones that drive the markets. At least if it's bad news, at least they know how to respond to it. Not knowing what's going to happen, then that throws the anxiety out there. We don't know how to respond because we don't know what's going to happen. And Then you have to sit there and play out all the different scenarios. But at least, like I said, you know, when you have that certainty of, well, at least, yeah, we know, yeah, this is going to blow up, this is going to crap, whatever, even if it's bad news, at least we know how to respond to it. So in a week like this where it's the waiting, it's for some certainty in the likely general direction of things, or we know this a big event may or may not blow up the news, but it's likely to, is it going to be good or bad? We don't know yet. So we got this period of anxiety. And again, once you know the tariffs are announced, then there's a window of the emotional responses, a lot of news, a lot of biasing, a lot of bs and then things will settle down. So again, it's just being smart as a trader and thinking things through. And I bring all this up so that you can protect yourself. Main thing is if you don't know how to get into it and your system does rely on things generally being under normal conditions, especially if you're using lagging indicators. When we got uncertain, uncertain times like this, your system is the odds of it performing as expected kind of go down because the conditions are different, what's going on in the markets is different. So you just got to slow down, think it through, use your best judgment. If you don't know what to do, sit on the sidelines. At least get through the spell of weirdness without getting hurt so that when things do settle down now, you can get back to trading as normal. So use your best judgment, keep your wits about you, make sure you're going into it with a well thought through plan and understand, yes, your system, which operates very well under normal conditions, may you maybe probably not going to be working right now because it's not normal conditions. So anyway, now again, this goes back to circling back. Okay, what do you do if, if you're kind of stuck in this position or maybe your system, maybe you don't have a system that's really reliable right now, maybe your confidence has already been shaky even under normal conditions. What do you do? Well, if you want to swing by Inside Out Trading.com, book a call with me. Up at the very top there's links. Just book a call with Brian, book a call with me, we'll talk about what you know, what's been going on with your trading, how to address what's been holding you back. First of all, we're going to have a conversation where we'll just talk about what's been going on with your trading, what you've been running into, what's making it tough. Identify the obstacles. First thing is we got to get clear on really what are the obstacles. And and then we can lay out a path forward to get you past the obstacles and onto confident, comfortable, profitable trading. So I hope this has been helpful. If it has swingbyinsideouttrading.com book book a call with me, give me a like and subscribe down below so the YouTube algorithm knows that it's a decent video. I'd appreciate it if you would. Plus yeah it'll help me grow the channel. And the other thing is, you got friends who trade. Share this with them if you found it helpful. If you think it'll help them out, cool. Doing a good turn. Pay it forward. And I've got other freebies you can swing by Inside Out Trading.com I've got other freebies that you can get. I got a whole bunch of different free resources. Everything from scorecards to spread. Well, yeah, a couple of spreadsheets, short reports. But it's all stuff that's designed to help you be a more competent, confident, profitable trader. And it's focused on you, not on this is my, you know my magic, just crack the code strategy. So swing my inside out trading.com love to help you make your trading better, make it more profitable, turn it into what you wanted all along. Again, hope this has been helpful. Talk to you soon. Cheers.