Ep 293 | The Maybe Fable

Brian Gubernick and his 13-year-old daughter Avery discuss the Chinese farmer fable where every event gets a "maybe" because outcomes are uncertain. A pandemic hardship became a real-estate boom; an employee's resignation saved money; Peloton surged then struggled. The point: immediate judgments are short-sighted when long-term consequences are unknown.
Chapters
Thank you for joining me today. It's Brian Gubernick, and welcome to the No Days Off podcast, where we believe that every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. Today I am going to bring onto the podcast the second co-host I've ever had here at No Days Off. If you, if you've been listening to almost 300 episodes now, then you know, I've only had one other co-host and that was my 11-year-old daughter, Katie. Well, today is a big day because I am bringing the second co-host on and that co-host is my 13-year-old daughter, Avery. Avery, say hello to our audience.
Hello.
So here's what we want to do. Uh, I recently came across this great story. Uh, it was shared with me by one of our coaches at 29029, 29029, which is an event that we have coming up. A group of us are competing at the Whistler event, and we have these monthly calls, and one of our coaches shared what I thought was a pretty amazing story. So amazing that I wanted Avery to come on today and read you the Chinese farmer story, and then we'll talk about it just after that. So, Avery, if you would, let's read the Chinese farmer story. It's a short story. Stick with us. I think you're really gonna like it.
Alright. Once upon a time, there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, "We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate." The farmer said, "Maybe." The next day, the horse came back bringing 7 wild horses with it. And in the evening, everybody came back and said, "Oh, isn't that lucky? With a great turn of events, you now have 8 horses." The farmer again said, "Maybe." The following day, his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, oh yeah, while riding, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, "Oh dear, that's too bad," and the farmer responded, "Maybe." The next day, the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again, all the neighbors came around and said, "Isn't that great?" Again, he said, "Maybe." The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it's really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad, because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune, or you will never know what will be the consequences of good fortune.
Perfect. That's perfect. Good job. So what do we, what do we learn from the story? What are we getting from this story? So this Chinese farmer, you know, his horse gets away, his horse runs away, and everyone thinks that's unfortunate. The farmer says, "Maybe." But then they find the horse. This time he's hanging out with 7 other wild horses. So the farmer picks up 7 more horses, and he thinks, you know, many people, many around think it's going to be great. He says, "Maybe." Next day, his son's trying to break one of the horses, and sure enough, he breaks his leg. Everyone feels that's a really bad thing to happen, and the farmer says, "Maybe," because The following day, the Army officers come around and they're drafting people into the Army, but they reject his son because of that broken leg. The neighbors then say, "Isn't that great?" To which he says, "Maybe." So what do we learn from this story? I liked it so much because I think that, you know, what we really see is that life is really uncertain. Like, we never know what situations yield us a good outcome, a bad outcome, or otherwise. Oftentimes, we're just quick though to say, "Hey, it's good," or "It's bad," on that immediate, like, impact and that immediate assessment, but time will tell. Time will tell. There's many situations that we could probably all point to that maybe felt bad in the aftermath or good in the aftermath, but time, as time played out, maybe it played, maybe it came to, came to mean something a little bit different. How about COVID for example? COVID, March 2020, Avery and I are in our family are on the way to, uh, spring break in March 2020. You remember that? And we're on the way to Telluride, which is where we go for spring break, and we stop by a mountain house that we have because, probably a conversation for another day, but I get impacted by elevation. So, I've got to go stop off somewhere and get acclimated. Well, sure enough, we're there. And do you remember what happened?
Yeah.
What happened?
I'm pretty sure my grandpa texted my mom or my dad and said that the mountains are closed.
Yeah, the mountains are closed. So, here we are, we're at our house and they're up in Telluride already. He texts and says, "Everything's shut down." And what happened immediately after that? Now we're all— now the world's in chaos, right? That first week or 2 weeks or 3 weeks, we would all describe that as pretty bad. I think it's safe to say it was pretty bad. Even the first 2 months or 3 months. But after we got through what we described as really, really bad, some interesting things started to happen. Now, please don't misunderstand. There were lives at risk. You know, unfortunately, many people had people close to them that were impacted. So I don't want to take away from that. But in business, where we thought businesses were going to shut down forever, in my industry in real estate, 3, 4 months later, we went on the greatest run that most anybody in real estate has ever seen. So while it was felt to be bad, there were good things that actually came of it. We can look at lots of other things in your world right now. How about an employee quits, and maybe it's someone that's been with you for a long time. Employee quits, and you think, "God, this is the worst thing ever." 2, 3 months later though, you find that, "Hey, maybe I didn't really need that role filled. Maybe I've got— I was spending a lot more money on things that really weren't necessary." Or maybe the opposite. Maybe you have a great product launch and everyone's buying this thing up and it seems good. It seems really good. But a few months later, you realize your hyperfocus on that one product maybe set you up for failure in other areas. I think about, you know, I think Peloton might be a decent example of this. Since we're talking a little bit around COVID, Peloton, you know, took off. At-home fitness took off, virtual training took off. 2, 3 years later, those companies are struggling. Some not only just struggling, but have closed shop since then. So what you may initially perceive as good or perceive as bad may not always be the case. We're faced with hardship in life. We're faced with all different sorts of challenging scenarios, and we think they're bad, but Man, I think many of us would say sometime later, we would contend they're the best thing that ever happened to us. So at the end of the day, you never know. And Alan Watts has a great quote. Alan Watts is actually the individual I think that framed that farmer story, wrote that farmer story. Alan Watts says, actually, Avery, why don't you read this? What does Alan Watts say?
You never know the consequence, what will be—
Say it again.
You never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune, or you will never know what will be the consequences of good fortune.
It's just a a really good reminder. You never know what the consequence of misfortune is gonna be, and you'll never know what the consequences of good fortune will be, not until at least time plays out. And I would contend maybe, maybe there's never a period of time because dominoes start to fall and you just don't know how it's gonna go. So the important point is, and I think the thinking, you know, the focusing question for you all today is, what are you treating as really good right now, or maybe really bad right now, because you're a bit short-sighted? What are you experiencing, or what might you experience in the not too distant future, where you will quickly make a decision as to, or an emotional, have an emotional reaction that is good or bad? But the reality is things aren't really good or bad. They could be both. They could impact you positively or negatively. Time just has to play out. So where is that impacting you? Where could you take this story and let it and see it play out in your life? In your past, or where do you see it potentially playing out in the future? Think around that today. Think it's— think this one's going to make an impact on you. That's all I have for you today. That's all we have for you today here at the No Days Off Podcast. Thank you so much for listening. And remember, every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. So let's get after it.
More from Brian

Ep 755 | Mack Newton's Words of Wisdom - "You Are Only as Big as Your Self-Concept" (REPLAY)










