Ep 495 | 3 Mental Models That Cut Through Complexity

Thank you for joining me today. It's Brian Gubernick, and welcome to the No Days Off podcast, where we believe that every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. Today we're going to talk about a few mental models that cut through complexity. Specifically, we're going to talk about how Occam's razor Hanlon's Razor, and Chesterton's Fence— sorry, hard one to say— how these three models can help you think more clearly. At No Days Off, we strive to make better decisions. That's, that's what we talk about quite often here. I think the reality is, for most of us, decision-making is harder than it really should be. But I'd ask you, what if there were mental shortcuts that could help you think a bit more clearly, Maybe avoid some unnecessary drama. At the end of the day, just make better choices. Well, I think today the 3 mental models we're going to cover, I think they're going to help you cut through this complexity and you're going to start to see things a little bit more clearly, provided that you remember to reference these 3 mental models when faced with specific circumstances that may call them, uh, into, into order. So let's talk about the first one here. It's called Occam's Razor. You've probably heard about Occam's Razor. We talked about it here in the past, and it's really the simplicity principle. It's named after William of Occam, a 14th century English philosopher, and he argued that when solving a problem, the simplest explanation is usually the best one. That is Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation explanation is usually the best one. For example, if you wake up and your car won't start, the explanation could be maybe a highly sophisticated electrical fa— failure, or you left your lights on overnight. I think it's probably more likely you left your lights on overnight than a highly sophisticated electrical failure. Occam's razor says assume the simplest explanation first. Now, how do you use this Occam's razor mentality or mental model in business and in decision-making? Well, I think as it pertains to productivity, I think we could focus, or we need to focus, on the simplest, simplest path to a result instead of overcomplicating solutions. I am a big fan of asking the question, well, if this was easy, what would it look like? If this was simple, what would it look like? Where's the low-hanging fruit? What can we go attack and immediately get a win right out the gate? This is the simplest path to a result, and it avoids overcomplicating solutions. You may grow to need a more complicated answer, but right out the gate, especially, look for the simplest path. In problem solving, take away all the unnecessary complexity. And focus on what's most likely true. Go to first principles. What is most likely true? Take out all of the complexity. Odds are what's most likely true is in fact true. Lastly, I think in leadership, if a team is underperforming, don't assume that they're lazy or don't want to work hard. Maybe they just lack clarity. On expectations. Maybe they're unclear how to use a specific tool. Again, go back to the simplest explanation because it's usually the best one. The world seems to love complexity, but smart thinkers, I think, do a phenomenal job of simplifying. Now, I wanna talk about our next mental model, Hanlon's Razor. Hanlon's Razor is the assumption of incompetence. This one's kind of funny, but it is so true. It's named after Robert Hanlon, who included it in a joke submission to a book of Murphy's Laws. The core idea of Hanlon's Razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. Now, it was originally set up as a joke, but I think when others dug into it, they're like, wait a second, It's pretty darn accurate. We often assume people are out to get us, that they're malicious. In reality, though, they're just distracted or inexperienced or just making mistakes. They're not trying to be malicious. They're just incompetent. Now, that sounds like a harsh word to use, but I'm, I'm using it in a broad sense. They're distracted, they're inexperienced, they're making mistakes. They're not necessarily out to get us. And I think this applies in business and leadership and relationships, even in politics. If you get, for example, if you get a short, cold email from your boss or from your partner, it's really easy, or text even worse, it's really easy to think, "Oh, they're mad at me." Or maybe they just wrote it quickly in between meetings. Like, like again, we default to they're mad at me, but maybe they just had to write a quick message. Hanlon's Razor would say assume incompetence or carelessness before you assume ill intent. This shows up in a lot of places throughout our life each and every day. This helps you because you'll reduce unnecessary conflict. So instead of overreacting, you get to pause and you get to ask, hey, Could this be a mistake or a misunderstanding? I think it also helps you in that you improve your leadership as a result. Don't assume your people or your employees are trying to sabotage you. Maybe they just need clearer direction. And I think as, as far as your relationships go, most people aren't plotting against you. They're just busy living their own lives. So if you take Hanlon's Razor into account, you'll strengthen some relationships. So, the takeaway here, instead of assuming the worst, ask yourself, could this just be an honest mistake? Could it just be an honest mistake? Remember, never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. The last mental model, not one we've talked about here at No Days Off before, it's known as Chesterton's Fence. And it's the change principle. It's named after G.K. Chesterton. A 20th century English writer and philosopher. And he wrote about a hypothetical fence across a road where a person suggests removing it because they don't see its purpose. The wiser response here would be to first understand why that fence was built before deciding to remove it. That's the change principle. That's Chesterton's fence. Understand why it was built before deciding to remove it. The big idea here is don't change systems or traditions or rules until you understand why they exist. Many processes, many traditions, they have a reason. Some are outdated, but some are still relevant. A good example of this in, in business and some examples in life, let's say a new CEO wants to remove an old policy. Before they do, they should ask, why was this put in place to begin with? What problem was it solving? I have a firsthand experience in this. When I joined my partner Ben and Chris over at a company called Place, when I joined, Ben said, "Hey, before you jump in there and start making changes, I want you to spend the next 60 to 90 days understanding, you know, what it is we do and ask questions why we do it that way. I know you wanna remove that fence right out the gate, But it's important that you understand why it was built first before deciding to remove that fence. It was such a good call. And while I don't always give my buddy Ben a great deal of credit, I will definitely give him credit on this one because he said you got to slow down and understand things before you make moves. And it— he was right. He was absolutely right. In relationships, for example, family traditions might seem odd but they also might have some deeper meaning. In government, laws may seem outdated, but they still might be protecting something of value. So, Chesterton's Fence, how does it really help you? Well, it prevents reckless decision-making. Don't break something before you know why it exists. I think it also helps you respect wisdom of the past, because not all old ideas are bad ideas. And then lastly, I think it encourages critical thinking. Before changing something, ask, what was this fence really protecting? Really good question. So before you tear something down, make sure you understand why it was built. So we've got three razors, we've got three mental models here. Occam's razor, which is favor simple explanations over complex ones. Hanlon's Razor, which is assume mistakes before assuming malice, and Chesterton's Fence, which is understanding why something exists before changing it. I have a challenge for you here today. If you're part of the No Days Off Nation, I want you to think about your life and your work right now. Where can you apply these, these 3 mental models? Is there a problem in your world right now that you're overcomplicating? Maybe a person in your world that you're assuming the worst about. Is there a system you want to change without understanding its purpose? I want you to start with these razors here and you'll make clearer, smarter decisions in my opinion. That's my call to action for you today. That's all I have for you today. The No Days Off Podcast. Thank you so much for listening. And remember, every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. So let's get after it.