Ep 629 | Nothing Is Ever in the Bag

Thank you for joining me today. It's Brian Gubernick, and welcome to the No Days Off podcast, where we believe that every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. Just the other day, a good buddy of mine, Eric, had asked me about this upcoming 29029 endurance event. I've mentioned it here a few times. He asked me about this event coming up And he said, hey, you know, is the event in the bag for you? Meaning that, you know, are you gonna be good? I mean, you kind of got this. Are you good to go? And he was saying it because I've done a couple of these events with him, actually, and I've done some other endurance events. And, you know, I should be able to do just fine in this event. And some may perceive I could, I don't wanna say coast through it, but it shouldn't be overly challenging provided I do what I need to do. And it really kinda got me thinking because all it would take is one slip-up, poor nutrition, bad sleep, not paying attention to what I'm doing, maybe laying off my training, Just one screw-up in that sense, and, and it's far from in the bag. So my thought when he asked that was, man, nothing— this is a hard event, this is a big deal. Nothing is ever in the bag. I've done all different sorts of things. I've even done this event before. But again, if I screw up my nutrition or any of these things, um, the whole thing, the whole event could come undone. And it got me thinking even more, how many times in sports or in business or in life have high performers that we all know, how many times have they thought they had something locked up? They had, they had believed that something was already theirs only to be shocked because of that comfort. You know, we could go to— it's kind of funny, but you could go to the old fable about the tortoise and the hare. If you remember, the hare sprints ahead and, and he assumes that victory is guaranteed, victory is certain. So what does he do? He gets complacent, takes a nap, and then the tortoise, who keeps steady, ends up winning. It's so simple, but it's, but it's timeless. Overconfidence breeds carelessness, and carelessness opens the door for loss. Now, some real-life examples. Next one I was thinking about, and I actually was just watching the documentary on Netflix not that too long ago, um, the Team USA basketball, uh, 2004 Olympics. If you remember, some of you may, the 1992 Dream Team with Michael Jordan and Magic and Larry and all those guys. That team set the standard. And the standard was absolute dominance. After that team, and they allowed pros to play, it was assumed that USA basketball owned the gold medal. Like, it was an automatic, or at least perceived to be an automatic thing. It was, in other words, in the bag. And then by 2004, the NBA had different stars like Iverson and Tim Duncan and LeBron and Marbury. Expectations were of course sky high, but that team, that 2004 team, greatly underestimated the international teams that they were playing because those international teams had grown sharper. They played more disciplined basketball. They weren't intimidated anymore like the 1992 teams were. As a result, that team, that 2004 team, had shocking losses to Puerto Rico and Lithuania and Argentina. And the team, the 2004 Team USA, left the Olympics with a bronze, which was a national embarrassment. So the lesson I think here is history and talent mean nothing if preparation and respect for the competition and execution, if those things aren't there. Now, side note, in the documentary I mentioned, that's when 2008 became the Redeem Team because they came back and they, you know, they pretty much crushed everyone because of this experience that they had in 2004 when frankly they slacked because they perceived it was in the bag. Now, to pivot to business, we use this example for so many things, but Blockbuster and Netflix, I mean, as many of you may know, late, late '90s and early 2000s, Blockbuster was, was king. They had almost 10,000 stores, I think just over 9,000 stores, huge profits, almost a monopoly. Netflix actually approached Blockbuster to partner in 2000, and Blockbuster laughed them out of the room. They convinced that— they were convinced that their dominance, the brick and mortar It was in the bag, but Netflix kept building and Netflix began to lean into streaming and Blockbuster never adapted. And so by 2010, Blockbuster was bankrupt. I think the takeaway here, the lesson here is that dominance can create blind spots, creates complacency, and complacency plus arrogance is really, really fatal as demonstrated here. Kodak and the digital camera, similar sort of story. Kodak literally invented the first digital camera in 1975, but their management shelved that digital camera. They were worried that it would cannibalize their film sales. They didn't want to do that. And for decades, they assumed their dominance in, in the film space was in the bag. Meanwhile, Canon and Sony poured into digital, and some others poured into digital. And by the time Kodak tried to catch up, it was, it was actually too late. In 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. They also didn't have the foresight. Again, they were resting on their laurels. That thing we all carry in our pocket today where people just now keep, you know, barely even print photos— they didn't see that coming because they were so almost arrogant in their approach. I think the lesson here, the future doesn't care about your past success. Assuming that you'll always be on top is the surest way to probably lose your edge. So as entrepreneurs, what can we take away from all this? I think first, it's pretty clear, nothing is in the bag in your business. Nothing is in the bag in your business. Just when you think you've got it, someone comes along, something revolutionary happens, AI shows up. So nothing is in the bag. A market shift happens, whatever it may be. Next, the second you think you're— you've arrived, and be it in your market share or client base or your skills, even the second you think you've arrived is the second someone hungrier starts to show up. Starts catching up. And then lastly, for our entrepreneurs out there, recognize that the margin between winning and losing isn't, isn't talent or history or even resources. I think it's preparation and vigilance, and it's certainly never letting up, never taking your foot off the, off the gas. You start going into defense mode or start resting on your laurels, you're going to get caught and you're probably going to get disrupted. So action item for you, I want you to think today about maybe one area in, in your business or in your life where maybe you've started to assume it's in the bag. Maybe it's a client or relationship that you've— you're taking for granted a little bit. Maybe it's a, a process that's working really well for you and you've stopped you've stopped improving it. Maybe it's a competitor you no longer really think about. Write, write that thing down and then do one thing this week to challenge that assumption. Maybe you need to re-engage that client. Maybe it's audit that process. Maybe it's study that competitor. The minute you think it's in the bag, it's when the bag potentially rips open. And as a member of the No Days Off Nation here, I do not want to see that happen to you. So a lot to think about. I appreciate you hanging out with me, hanging out with me today at the No Days Off Podcast. Remember, every single day brings a new opportunity to get better. So let's get after it.