A short dialogue explaining that economic cycles have three phases—build/boom, consolidation, and bust—where early growth gives way to winners buying smaller firms and eventual busts when firms become inefficient and overleveraged. The speakers assert we are currently in a bust that began shortly after COVID and characterize it as an 'asset price recession' rather than a productivity recession.
Three trends to any cycle.
There is the build period or the boom period where idiots get rich.
Everything is new. People are entering the marketplace. Everything is growing. Then we have the consolidation period. And the consolidation period is where winners emerge and the winners start buying up the smaller fish. And then we have the bust.
People are over leveraged.
There's cracks in the armor. The companies that are winning are getting.
Bloated and as a result, they get.
Less efficient and they bust. Can anyone guess what.
Cycle we're.
In right now? We are in bust right now. We've actually been in bust for some time. Bust happened.
Shortly after Covid.
That's when it started.
We just were.
Drunk on Federal Reserve. There's no recession coming. We're in it. We're in an asset price recession. That means that we aren't going to have a huge productivity bust. We're in an asset price recession.
