Short interview excerpt where Gary Vaynerchuk discusses predictions (not guesses) about the 2020 U.S. presidential race, the future of marriage and social transparency, and a possible long-term shift from a two-party system toward a four-party landscape. Gary argues increasing transparency will reduce privacy-driven outlets (infidelity, sex work), likely decreasing marriage rates over decades and producing more serial long-term relationships; he also says Trump may be more electable than expected though Biden could win, and that America may evolve politically into left/right and corresponding moderates over 50–100 years.
Chapters
I'm gonna give you your choice of answering one of two very, very easy questions. I know you like trends and you're pretty good at predicting them. So number one, and you know where.
I stand on me predicting. I think I'm very good at moving very quickly. So I'm not predicting. I'm communicating what has already been proven to me. I don't guess.
Understood. So without guessing, I want you to tell us what's gonna happen in the 2020 election and I want you to tell me the future of marriage.
Huh? You've been. That's, that's a, that's a very interesting question because that could, those two questions could only come from somebody. They're not actually layups. I'll tell you. Let me like, let me say this out loud. Those two questions are disproportionately.
Smart. If you follow me carefully. I never talk about politics and I've been alluding to what happens when the world becomes super transparent, because I'll answer number two. I think marriage is a super interesting debate over the next 20 to 50 years. Here's why I believe this to be true. I believe that the shadows of our society, infidelity, prostitution, strip clubs, have been massively important to the current state of marriage because they've given an outlet. Let me say this very clear to both men and women. And by the way, no question, because of hardwiring. 85% men. 80. I don't know the data, but I live in life. I know many women that do things that are not popular, that are alphas. So nonetheless, it provided cover. It created foundational pieces that in a world where nobody can hide, I'm curious what's going to happen. I'm curious if people are not. I think there's a lot of people who got into marriage over the last hundred years that knew themselves and said if I needed to be sexual with another partner, I can do this because I do want to be married and have kids who now are gonna think I will get caught and I don't want that scarlet letter. So I need to debate this to begin with. And I think that will be a hundred year thing. And I do think marriage is in a very interesting spot in the next hundred years because I do think lack of privacy will lead humans to adjust to it. I don't know where it goes, but if you ask me if I'm a betting man, in 50 years, are more people married today or less? I would say way, way, way less. Doesn't mean people won't have. I think you'll see people go through what we see with divorce. This is why, as divorce's stigma went away, it went from 10% to 60%. I think you're gonna see people have a lot of. I think the modern person 100 years from now will probably have three meaningful relationships in their eight to 15 years each.
I think our mutual friend Aubrey would agree with that.
Is this the way he stands? I'm going to see him soon, so I'll ask him.
You're coming to Austin, right, to do that thing with him.
That's what I was going to ask him. I think Donald Trump's in a very much better position than most people think. I think he's.
As far as electability.
Yeah. I think he's going to get more likely reelected than people think. I do think that Joe Biden could beat him.
I hate talking about politics, even though. So I have very many views. I'm outrageously socially liberal, which makes me struggle with a lot of the GOP point of view. I think it skews too much towards hate at times. I'm also super scared of like, and I don't think it's. I think the socialism thing is laughable as somebody who came from communist Russia. But at the same token, like, I get DMs from 22 year olds that say, Gary, you're rich. You should pay 90% taxes. So I should get money. I, I DM back and say, I'll give you 100,000 right now personally. To which then they're like, what are you talking about? I'm like, I don't think you getting. I don't think people that don't want to work and don't have talent can be successful regardless of how much money I give them. And as long as every other person that makes as much money as me pays 90% taxes, I'll pay anything.
Do you think that this is. That there will be an end to the two party system in the next few elections? No, I don't think so.
Not in the next few. I take longer view than that.
Yeah. Okay.
It's more to marriage. I believe we're seeing the beginning stages of a four party system in America in the next 50 to 100 years.
Interesting.
I think you're gonna see the left and right. Right now I'm unbelievably comfortable with the extreme of the left and right, which has not been historically where I sit. Which makes me feel like you'll see a middle for both.
Absolutely. And it feels like not three.
I think it's four, I think, a left middle and a right middle.
That's interesting.
I feel like a Republican and Democrat party of 1980.
Yes.
In 20 years.
I feel like it's faster than that.
It may be. I also think that America's in a funny spot where it needed to pay the Piper in 2000. And this is funny that both the Republicans and Democrats bailed us out in 08. Both Bush started it and then Obama finished it, which I love, because then both are responsible.
They're both guilty.
I think the greatest undermining of America, if there ends up being one, was that we didn't pay the Piper in 08.
Fuck yes.
I'm sorry. I was an economics student during the crash and everybody was saying we needed to bail them out. And I was like, all we're doing is punting it for 10 years and we're punting. I thought we were gonna have like a big meltdown way earlier than now.
Punting.
We continue to punt and we continue.
To do that, which creates really bad behavior.
What is the source of that? I say the Federal Reserve and low interest rates. What is.
I don't know. Okay, I love that I got to say that I've been waiting for a I don't know moment. I just got one. I don't know. I'm not a macro. I'm not educated enough. What do I really think? Collective softness at the highest levels. If I was the President of the United States when this all went down, I would have gotten on TV and said, we deserve this and we will get through this. But everybody bunker down and eat some fucking shit.
God bless you, cuz.
That's how you win. That's how you win. You don't win by fake environments. All we. Everybody's so mad at these parents that paid for these kids to get into these colleges. That's what we did as a macro government for the whole country. We should have paid the piper.
Amen, brother. I'm gonna leave it on that one, Gary.
