YouTube Channel: @RyanDanielMoran

We've had it really good and really easy for the last several years. Money has been cheap, opportunity has been everywhere, and consumer sentiment has been really high. E Commerce has had its day in the sun and the stock market just kept going up and up and up to the right. Now we've flushed the toilet, the toilet is flushing and all the is going down the hole.

Hey everyone. Ryan here. Welcome back to the channel. I hope you will join me today in some cheap coffee and your $8 target shirt. Cause it sure feels like the economy is melting. In this video, we're gonna go into what's happening, some analysis and most importantly, what you need to be doing and thinking about as an entrepreneur, as a business leader. While we enter into a period that looks a little bit ugly, in case you've been on vacation for about the last three months or so, the economy is finally showing signs of weakness and people are responding appropriately.

A massive U turn on Wall street this week. S&P 500 declining 3.6%. Every sector is feeling the pain today. The Dow plunging more than a thousand points on Thursday.

The Nasdaq is down nearly 30% from its highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 15%. The job market is starting to show a little bit signs of weakness. And even home prices are starting to fluctuate, flatten. The economy also shrunk 1.4% last quarter, which surprised a lot of analysts. And I think it may be a sign of a few more things to come. This is what happens when prices go up because of money being infused into the economy and you don't have real economic growth to support it. We're starting to see prices fall in terms of assets. We're starting to see consumer sentiment change as well. People are frustrated with the prices that they are paying on everyday items and there's not growth in their paychecks or in their businesses in order to offset those costs. Based on current trends, here's what would happen next. Because prices are up across the board and demand will likely fall. There are lots and lots of businesses that will run into the issue of no longer having the demand that they need in order to charge the prices that that they need to charge. And that will create a strain on supply chain, a strain on profits, and some people going out of business. Now I have friends who are preparing for the end of the world. This is Texas. I have friends who are buying ranch land and getting ready for protests and pretty much civil war. It's not going to get that bad, but we likely are going to see a very noticeable correction and a steep recession for at least a quarter or two. What this likely means is that stock markets will probably continue to fall for the next several months. Job markets will stop being so hot and we will likely see wages fall and you will see businesses start to see their profit margin squeezed. That's the situation, that's where we are. And we're probably going to have a significant amount of that continue for the next six months or so, maybe even longer. However, there are some silver linings in all of this. At the last Berkshire Hathaway meeting, Warren Buffett announced that they were being more aggressive in their buying than they had been in a long time. That they were buying companies at discounts and that they saw opportunities to deploy capital. What I believe happens on the other side of this is that you have an opening for new opportunities, especially the opportunities that you've been considering for a while. And what you are likely to see is evidence of things getting worse before they get better. That's just how our brains work. We tend to overcorrect in both directions. So we had a period in which we saw everything as amazing, everything as wonderful. Stock market going up, sales going up, profits going up and we over planned for that. I, I was one of them. I deployed capital into the markets at the top and I have friends who sold their companies for tens of millions of dollars, who deployed all of their capital and now have lost millions of dollars. If you have a short time horizon, you can't sleep at night as a result of that. But if you realize that this is just part of the process, then you'll probably be just fine. Most importantly, as an entrepreneur, there are things to look for and opportunities that are being set up right now that I think are pretty exciting. For example, the idea of starting an E commerce business right now is about as unsexy as they come. And we're going to see a lot of businesses that were riding high on the wave up start to struggle. This means that the old way of doing things is going to become antiquated, but that's going to create new opportunities for people who are looking for them right now. Even yours truly. I am looking for to acquire a couple of businesses right now that have struggled in the last year and I'm starting some brands as well. And I'm being just as aggressive as ever as investing in E commerce brands because now profitability matters, now operational talent matters and it's about to get a lot cheaper because the heyday is starting to unwind at the same Time. There are plenty of opportunities in the stock market where there are companies trading at 10 times earnings, 15 times earnings, where previously they were trading at 30 times earnings. Because now they're no longer seen as a growth stock because we're entering into a period of contraction. You might remember the quote from Warren Buffett who says, to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful. And we're entering a period in which there is going to be a lot of fear. We've gotten used to things being cozy over the last couple years. We've gotten used to a job market being really hot. We've even gotten used to not working. And what that means is that most people have not developed the habits of success that are required to take them through difficult periods. This is a period in which we get to develop those habits. Those habits include over serving your customers, making companies profitable, rather than just riding high on optimism, doing things the right way, showing up and managing your mindset. These are things that are important during good times and bad times, but we often overlook them during good times because things are easy. It's during times like this that real entrepreneurs are made. And that's why I'm really excited to invest in entrepreneurs who are getting started right now. This is the time that seeds are planted that start to sprout two, three, four years from now. And there's a few things happening that really stack the deck for those entrepreneurs who are starting. First of all, prices are about to come down in terms of labor, cost of goods, and especially advertising. When profit margins get squeezed, advertising costs come down. And now we have platforms that are competing for your business, specifically Facebook and TikTok. And because we're about to see a lot of entrepreneurs get flushed away from the marketplace, there's a wide open opportunity for entrepreneurs to come in, buy media and serve their customers well during this time of transition. And this is where the next seven and eight figure businesses are going to be started during this time and they'll sprout two and three years from now. So I am buying companies, I am investing in entrepreneurs, I am starting new brands, I'm doubling down on content in my community. These are things that are just good business practices. But when you're used to a different way of doing things, this correction is going to hurt. If you are looking at a short term window like where you were a year ago or where you were a year and a half ago, then you're going to compare that to now and feel crappy. But if you think about where you are going two, three, four years from now, then this is a very fertile opportunity to plant new seeds, to hire new people, and to build long term habits. They're going to take you into the next boom, which may not be for a few more years. So I'm more bullish than ever on the entrepreneurs who are starting right now. This is the time, this is the opportunity for entrepreneurs to plant seeds when they've just been thinking about it. Because now is the time that it actually matters. And you have to build the habits to be good to have a really successful seven and eight figure business over the next few years. My name's ryan. I run capitalism.com, i'm all in on entrepreneurs. I help entrepreneurs build seven figure business businesses that they can sell. I'm biased, but I think it's a really good time to start. Thanks for watching.