Carlo CocuzziAI Expert, Pod Cast Host, Real Estate Investor and Funding Specialist

AI Just Beat Prediction Markets | MOONSHOTS

11 Jun 2026 · 1 min

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1:07

In this brief discussion, Speaker A announces that GPT-5.5 has outperformed traditional prediction markets, specifically beating the Polly Market crowd forecasts for the Super Bowl. He frames this achievement as the start of AI providing "wisdom," likening it to an elder council that guides decisions based on experience, but with AI capable of running billions of high‑resolution simulations to identify the most probable successful outcomes. Speaker B draws a parallel to Isaac Asimov’s concept of psychohistory from the Foundation series, noting that even the current state‑of‑the‑art models achieve only about 25% accuracy, which he dubs the worst possible psychohistorical model. The exchange highlights both the practical breakthrough in forecasting and the broader philosophical implications of AI as a predictive, wisdom‑providing tool.

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GPT-5.5 is now beating prediction markets on forecasting the future. It beat Polly Market crowd predictions for the Super Bowl. You know, the way I think about this, this is the beginning of giving AI wisdom. You know, I've said this before. If you think about what wi— human wisdom is, is the ability to go to the elder council and say, okay, which direction do I take? Which way do I go? And the elders say, If you go this way, based on our experience, it's not going to end well. You go this way and it's likely to win. And if AI is able to run high-resolution simulations a billion-fold, you know, a billion times, it's going to say this is the highest probability of success.
Remember Isaac Asimov's psychohistory from the Foundation novels? Harry Seldon, a great mathematician, invents a theory that he calls psychohistory that's able to predict at grand scale human civilization. The fact that the state of the art right right now is already at 25% accuracy. This is the worst psychohistory models, if I may borrow from Asimov, will ever be.