As AI firms achieve self-improvement, they may stop needing external funding, delaying IPOs. This suggests technology could substitute for capital itself, not just labor, pointing toward an economy where AI generates value without requiring traditional financing.
Chapters
there's a, a deeper take that's more profound that I haven't heard anyone discussing, which is if IPOs are being delayed because large private companies don't need external capital or external liquidity because they're achieving recursive self-improvement, that in my mind marks potentially the beginning of a decoupling between technology and capital. A lot of the commentary or hand-wringing as has been the case for more than a century, about capital substituting for labor. What happens when the AI takes all of the human jobs? That's capital V labor. I've heard almost no one commenting on what happens if technology substitutes for capital. Will we need capital in a few decades, or does capital itself get displaced by technological advances? If we start to see technology decouple from capital, this is like an early warning signal for what a post-capitalist economy could look like where technology is just so empowered, you don't actually need capital very much anymore.