Carlo CocuzziAI Expert, Pod Cast Host, Real Estate Investor and Funding Specialist

ALEX: HOW FAR AHEAD IS THE MODEL YOU CAN'T SEE?

1 Sept 2026 · 1 min

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In this segment, the speaker explains that most AI labs, except for Elon’s SpaceX AI, maintain a pipeline where pre‑trained models can remain unreleased for up to about six months, while post‑training (continuous RL‑type) efforts are turned over much more quickly. He argues that no lab can afford to keep a post‑trained model on the shelf for more than a few months, and therefore it is unlikely that any organization possesses AGI‑level models that are more than three to four months ahead of publicly available systems. The overall claim is that internal capability gaps between labs and the public are relatively short‑lived.

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Everyone in the industry other than Elon and SpaceX AI basically has a pipeline of pre-trained models being around longer ahead of public release than post-training, which is more of an ongoing continuous RL-type effort. I guess my answer to the question of what sort of capabilities right now are sitting on the shelf that have not yet been publicly released for everyone from a pre-training perspective, depending on how stale the pre-training runs are, those can go out longer, potentially up to 6 months or so, although everyone's now getting back into the business of more frequent pre-training starts. And then for post-training, I really don't think there's a lab out there that can afford to have a post-trained model sitting on the shelf for more than a few months. So I really don't think like the AGI is achieved internally type way of doing business where there are internal capabilities that are vastly different from externally available capabilities. I'd be very surprised if there are advanced frontier models that are sitting internally without release that are more than 3 to 4 months ahead of what's publicly available.