Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are spending more on AI than they generate in cash flow, relying on debt and equity to fund the gap. One speaker warns that a shift in investor sentiment could force a sharp pullback. The other argues AI is the best investment in history and capital will keep flowing.
Chapters
AI ran the numbers on the cost of investment that hyperscalers are driving compared to the cash flow. So the Big Five— Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and the rest— are spending AI faster than they're earning. So funding is basically, Dave, you know, debt and equity raises, not based on revenues. So the question becomes, if CapEx exceeds cash flow, it means that it can only persist as long as it's being financed, as long as the sentiment for investing in this is strong. What happens if the sentiment shifts, could it force a massive pullback?
No, it's not going to shift for one thing, but it's so inflammatory. If I said, Peter, you need to buy a house, but you have to buy it within your personal cash flow, you finance it. Of course you do, because you're going to live in it for 30 years. So these guys have— they've gotten to the level where they're spending all their cash flow. They could raise 10 to 100x that in equity and debt. So they got a long way to go. But the bottom line is all the money in the world wants to flow into this, and it's the best investment in the history of humankind. So the question becomes how much money is there in the world.