In this short instructional video, the speaker explains the core of anticipatory planning: every strategic plan rests on implicit assumptions about customers, markets, technology, and behavior. Because many of these assumptions are untested, they become hidden vulnerabilities. The speaker advises focusing on the few "load‑bearing" assumptions that must hold for a strategy to succeed, treating them as single points of failure and developing contingency pathways. He highlights the need to challenge continuity bias—the tendency to view current conditions as stable—even as disruptive forces (e.g., personal computers, the internet, artificial intelligence) reshape the landscape. By distinguishing what will truly change from what will remain constant (the underlying purpose of communication, for example), leaders can stretch their thinking, reduce surprise, and be better prepared for the next major disruption. The video ends with a guiding question: "What is changing in your space, and what fundamental values will stay the same?"
Chapters
Your strategy is only as strong as the assumptions that you haven't questioned. We think that the future will be the same, only faster and with more weird clothing choices. But every future plan rests on the invisible assumptions that we're making about what will change and what will not. Our strategies are built on the beliefs we have about customers and the market and technology and behavior. And many of these assumptions are implicit. They feel like facts, they make sense to us, but they're very often untested, and circumstances can change that will leave us dependent on assumptions that are plain wrong. Instead of testing everything, anticipatory planning has us focus on the few assumptions that must hold for the strategy to succeed. These are often the most fragile and most important of the assumptions. Identify single points of failure. Some assumptions act as load-bearing. If they fail, the entire strategy will fall apart, and identifying these early allows for contingency thinking and alternative pathways to be created. Just in some of our lifetimes, computers completely changed how the workplace worked, then the internet completely changed everything, and now artificial intelligence challenges everything again. Look at those big shifts and know that everything will not stay the same for the next disruption. But can you tell what will change and what will remain familiar? We need to challenge our continuity bias, the assumption that makes current conditions feel stable and reliable even when other things are shifting. Challenging this bias means that it opens up alternative possibilities and reduces surprise. Even if what we assume may change doesn't change, doing this exercise alone means that we've stretched our brains enough to cope better with the real disruption when it does arrive. We are clever enough and competent enough to deal with any future, but we become our own worst enemy when we fight against the change and demand that certain things do not change or should never change. Emails changed completely how people communicated with each other, but the fact that they communicated by each other, that's what didn't change, and that's what you're looking for. So your question is, what is changing in your space, and what fundamental values will remain the same?
