Where are People Moving in 2022? - Episode 88

Today's show is sponsored by the Airbnb Kickstart course. My wife and I started our first Airbnb here in the last year and we've come to love the ability to earn more money than we would if we had a long term rental. If you're interested in starting your Airbnb business with little money, scaling your Airbnb business, or just learning tricks about the industry in general, check out our airbnb course@nextlevelincome.com Airbnb Airbnb. That's a I R, the letters BNB and you'll get a 20% discount code. Welcome to the Next Level Income show where it's our goal to raise your income, your investments and your life to the next level. I'm your host, Chris Larson. You can get a free copy of our book@nextlevelincome.com just click on the book link. Also, if you'd like to learn more about our investment opportunities, check out the investor link and you can learn how to gain access to our institutional quality assets, including our self storage fund. On today's show, I'm going to be talking about where people are moving, the 2022 edition. Every year. One of my favorite studies that comes out is the United Van Lines national movers survey. Now, 20 years ago, when I was researching industries on where to take my career, I focused on demographics. And this variable really helps to support the trends of what people are doing. And I chose the medical device industry because of the fact that the baby boomers were aging and the baby boomers were the most active and affluent segment in the history of our country. And what did that mean? These active individuals that had money, that were able to do things, that had good jobs, insurance, they wanted to continue to be active. That means they're going to need more surgery, orthopedic surgery. And that was one of the reasons that I went into the medical device industry. Demographics is also the lifeblood of the commercial real estate market. I'm going to get into a little bit of how I use this still today, this metric. I also talk extensively how we use demographic trends as well as other factors. In chapter seven of my book, which I just talked about how you can get for free at the top of the show. All right, so let's explore where people moved in 2021. All right, so the United Van Lines National Movers Study comes out in January, usually the first week of January every year. I'm always anxiously awaiting. The thing is, it tells us what a lot of us already know. We know where people are moving around the country. We know that people live in California. We know that people are leaving the Northeast. We know that people prefer to live in areas that have a lower cost of living, that have a higher quality of life, and they also have nicer weather, access to outdoors, and those sorts of things. All right, so I have a blog post that's going to go along with this. The top inbound states of 2021. Drumroll, please. Were number one, Vermont. If we look at some of the top states that are actually most populated, they include South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee. Again, not a lot of big surprises here. We talk about the Southeast. There's a nice graph, there's a nice map that highlights in blue these states where the top movers were. If you go online to the link in my blog, what you'll see is the Southeast is colored blue, a lot like the blue on the background here behind me. The yellow states are those states that people are moving out of. So what were the top outbound states? Let's see. New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, California. Top five. So again, we are looking at those states in the Northeast as well as those states that have higher taxes, higher cost of living, like California, which in my opinion is a wonderful place to live as far as climate, as far as outdoor activities, the politics, the taxes. A lot of people that live there are not as enthralled with those after Covid. And those are some of the reasons that people are moving. So why is this important? How's this going to affect the decisions that you make? We're going to back up a second here. So when you look at states, that gives you kind of a macro perspective. If you're looking at this map and you're saying, okay, I see people are liking the move to the Southeast, like, but where, like, North Carolina is a big state, Florida is a big state. Tennessee is a big state. Like, if you live in a rural area in one of these states, it's going to be significantly different than if you live in a more populated area. And the fact of the matter is, people prefer to live in metropolitan areas because it has things to do. It also has jobs. Jobs are really important. And that's, excuse me, why? We like cities that are over a million people in population or over 250,000 if we're talking about a fast growing small city. So again, just to highlight on this list the top states where people are moving largely in the Southeast. A lot of the states in the Northeast, kind of Midwest and California are where people are Moving out of the study also dives a little deeper. And there's, I think there's four different segments of this study that I reviewed for the podcast today. The next one we're going to talk about is the reason for moving by demographics. So the reasons for moving by demographic, no surprise that the number one reason for moving are jobs in the 18 to 34, it's a key demographic. And 35 to 44 demographics. The reason for job moving is for jobs 78% of time 18 to 34 and 65% of the time 35 to 44. If we're talking about multifamily real estate, as my book talks about, with the demographic trends, that 18 to 34 and 35 to 44 demographics are going to be the most important. So you're talking about about three quarters of the people in that demographic are moving for jobs. So jobs are very important. It's 50% up to 54 and still 21%, 55 to 64. That's where the trends start to shift. And what I mean, the second most important reason for people moving is to be closer to family. The third is lifestyle. So again, number one, jobs. Number two, family. Number three, lifestyle. And this is why when we are looking at areas for investment, we are going to focus first on population growth. Number two, on job growth. We want to make sure that not only are there an abundance of jobs, but are there more jobs? Is the job market growing? And that means you want to have a state that's business friendly. So places like Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, you know, you hear the governors go out on TV and say, hey, we're open for business. They've lower state tax rates, corporate tax rates. The reason they do that is because they want companies and jobs to move in. And they know that if they give those tax incentives or they typically see if they give those tax incentives and more jobs come in, they're going to increase the tax base of the state. So even if those companies aren't paying tax, the employees of those companies typically are. All right, so then the other thing you want to look at, and if you're listening, you're probably thinking, yeah, that's, that's the same kind of reason or rationale that I use when I want to move somewhere. We're talking about how you can use this for your own career at the end of the podcast today as well. But number two, family. Number three, lifestyle. So the other thing you want to look at is, okay, there's a lot of jobs in this area, but does it also have opportunities for recreation? Austin, Texas, one of the top places in the country to invest. When it comes to multifamily real estate, it's a huge area of job growth. People are moving from California. Austin's also a great city to do stuff outside, great music. It's one of our favorite places, places to go visit. We have some good friends that live there as well. All right, so we've talked about where people are moving. We've talked about why people are moving, specifically focusing on jobs. What about the baby boomers? So I talked about the baby boomers. Early in the podcast. I talked about how I followed the baby boomer trends with my career. Well, what are the baby boomers now doing? Now, today, they're retiring in unprecedented numbers. Thousands of baby boomers are retiring every day. Where are they moving? Specifically, where are retirees moving? Top inbound retirement states. Number one, Florida. Number two, South Carolina, Number three, Arizona. Four and five are Delaware and Idaho. Little surprise there by Delaware. I grew up in Maryland, not too far from Delaware, but there's some beaches there. There's also some favorable tax advantages there. But again, Florida, South Carolina, no surprise, North Carolina is also high up on the retiree inbound list. Arizona, a lot of people are moving from California to Arizona to Phoenix to Santa Fe. New Mexico is also in the top 10. And a place on the east coast that rounds out the top 10 is Maine. Again, I have this entire list in my podcast that you can find my podcast blog that you can find in the show notes of the podcast here. But I know several people whose parents have moved to Maine here recently. So that's interesting. If you're in the Northeast, Maine has a lot of positive attributes when it comes to retiring. And then again, if you look at this from a macro perspective, the Southeast, Arizona, the Sun Belt, all of these things offer higher quality of life, lower cost of living, and a lot of abundance of activities to do when you retire. When you look at multifamily real estate, we just completed an acquisition in Fort Myers, Florida. When I toured that property, there was about 50% of the residents were retirees. There's a very stable resident base for the property, and you could see them enjoying the amenities on the property, even midday when most people were at work. So if you're listening and you say, okay, Chris, that's great. I read your book. I understand the process that you use when analyzing opportunities in the multifamily market. When it comes to demographics and these trends, what does that mean for me? I'm Just starting out in my career, for instance. Well, you can use the information just like I did when I started out in my career. Look for areas of the country that have what I call the rising tide. In chapter seven of my book, you want to have a rising population growth, rising population through growth. You want to have a rising job market in the area that means more people, that means more customers. So whatever your business is, unless it's a decentralized business, if you're targeting an area, it's nice to be in a geographic area that has a rising customer base. Or you could just look at an industry and say, okay, geographics isn't important to me, but the demographic trends of that industry are important to me. So you can think about that. The other thing you can look at is something that I call geographic arbitrage. I wrote about this in a blog about a year ago. I link it as well in my blog notes. In my blog, in the notes of the podcast here, and I talk specifically about why my family chose to move to North Carolina and specifically Asheville, North Carolina. We looked at demographic trends. We also looked at cost of living and quality, quality of life to make our choice to move here. And again, if you're moving somewhere and if you're looking to buy a house or buy real estate in that area, again, all of the things that we talked about today on this podcast can help you out. So even if you're not investing in real estate, if you're buying a home, buying in an area where your home goes up in value can be a really nice financial benefit for you and your family and as you move forward. So now going through this information, going through this process in this podcast, you have the same tools that I started using over 20 years ago to help me figure out the best career path for myself, helped us figure out the best place to move for our family and start and then ultimately grow a family. And now today we use the same set of tools to analyze markets to make the best choices for our real estate investments. If you'd like to learn more, make sure you like and follow the podcast. Check us out@nextlevelincome.com Again, grab a free copy of my book there and you can read through chapter seven and learn all about the specific strategy that we use in multifamily and that you can use in your own life to help you out. Hey Chris, here again. I hope you found this episode valuable. Now I have one more thing to give to you. We have a page for my coaching clients where you can get a free copy of my book as well as much more from previous guests on the show. Just check out nextlevelincome.com coaching to get a free copy of my book, audiobook and much more. I'll send you a copy of my book and cover all the shipping costs as a thank you for listening to the podcast. Also, please like share and take just 90 seconds to give us a rating on Apple Podcasts.