In this March 20, 2026 market commentary, the host reviews intraday price action for SMCI and SPY, highlighting that both securities breached the speaker’s bearish target levels. SMCI fell below $24, hitting a cascade of lower targets down to the $17.50‑$21 range amid rising volume and a pre‑market news catalyst involving a criminal investigation. The analysis references multiple moving averages (4‑, 8‑, 50‑, 200‑period SMAs/EMAs) and notes that crossovers provided no exit signal, emphasizing a continued downtrend. For SPY, the index dropped about $12, failing to break the $660 resistance and sliding toward $6.50, with the host mapping out bearish zones (below 659, targeting 653, 650, etc.). The commentary discusses the impact of options expiration (triple witching), the ex‑dividend date, and large volume prints on price movement. The video concludes with a promotional plug for a weekly Dark Pool Report newsletter and a partnership with TrendSpider for real‑time institutional trade data.
Chapters
Good afternoon, traders. It's Friday, March 20th at 3:03 PM. Well, the market's been really melty, and so, uh, yeah, both our stocks, SMCI and SPY— well, SPY went way below all of my bearish targets. I mapped it out $9, and that one, uh, that one tanked. And, um, SMCI hit pretty much all of my bearish targets. So let's go ahead and have a look here. Uh, these ones here, and these are the largest trades in the last week, and Notice how they're all today. Look at this. But there was that news, right, on on SMCI criminal investigation arrests selling stuff to China they shouldn't have when it was illegal. So we were bullish above 2551. We wanted to get above this cam here, 2551, whatever this was right here, and that never happened. But we were bearish below 24, and let's zoom in a little bit. So the 24 occurred pre-market. So it was right about here at about 5 AM we broke below. You had another entry right here at 6:35 AM, and then that came down and got all the way down here to 2225. Then we got into the open here and it was just continually moving down, right? So when the 4 and the 8 cross over like this, there's no reason to get out. You had some up thrusts up to the 50 and stuff, so really— Yeah, you probably if you were just trading this, if this happens to you, you're probably going to get out like on this, something like that. But then this came down, tried again to the 50 simple. But here's the big one. Look at this right at lunchtime, increasing volume, breaking below again. There were all of these prints here that were coming in today, and this is just a steady decline. No reason to get out at all. Look at this, riding the 4 all the way down. So we were bearish below 24 and it hit our target 21, and then we were just— because there was nothing below us, we're just going dollar level, $23.50. Then we did 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17.50. And so yeah, it's here 21 and it's just been a melt all day on that, which is, which is a bit crazy. So if I turn this on, you see that— look at all of the prints for today. Absolutely nuts, right? So people are just dumping this, it looks like. So let's go ahead and look at the SPY. Interesting today. So the SPY, we are down another $12 today. Now yesterday we held this 200 simple, 200 exponential, but we upthrusted to tag a print and the 4 exponential moving average. And pulled off below. So there is the risk really of it retracing, especially on these 200s here below massive, massive prints. Look, we're up to 9.4 million today, 650,684. That's the late print, and we're still below all of that. Now there was another 5 million at 652.75. Now it's the other thing too, is it's options expiration But it's also ex-dividend date. So if whoever, if this was a buy here, they're collecting a dollar whatever, $1.60, $1.80, whatever it is per share. So we're still down below that. Usually when the dividend is paid out, the price of the stock drops by the dividend. That's usually what happens. But anyway, we're, we're, uh, $4.50 below this 5 million share print as well. They could have been selling it irrespective of the dividend, but yeah, this is just coming down. So where do we go from here? I thought maybe this $6.50. Now when we were doing our pre-market videos, we wound up saying that $6.60 and $6.50 were targets. We're hitting those, and where are we going to look for support, right? We'd have to go back and see Now prints that are way down here are are further back in time, so we just have to look structurally and see where it would be a decent move to actually go to. And right now it's just a free fall, but we are let's see how far away from the four exponential moving average. It's six fifty seven, so we're about nine dollars. That's the risk to retrace back up. To test the moving averages here is $9 to the 4 exponential moving average. This is a bear doji sandwich, so even if this comes pops back up, might continue down there. But anyway, let's look. We were bullish above 660, bearish below 659, and we never did break the 660. We were mapping it out here. 659 occurred relatively quickly here. This was about 5 a.m. The video was just coming out then, but then what you do is you, um, you trade level to level. And so increasing volume breaking below the level. This one came down and these are prints for today. 9 million, 2.9 million. So that's 12 right there. There's another 3.5. So that's, um, that's 15.5 million, 17. Uh, this, and this one here is what, 22, 24 million today, just, just there. And so this one breaking below, hitting a bunch of our targets, and I had mapped it out all the way down to 650. And so we came down here, this level 653.47. We had a target. Well, did we hit 653? Low was 653.20. 653 was a target, but we already hit a bunch here. We came back up, and this is print pong. Look at this. Same day came up, tagged the print. Back to the cam, tag the print, back to the cam, tag to the print, back. And then we couldn't make this higher high. Had this increasing volume, tried to get some of the shorts stopped out there, especially on a Friday with zero days to expiration options. Then we've got the increasing volume, right? You always wait for the increasing volume breaking below, and then It moved down to the next candle. So ultimately my target was $6.50 for the day, and this one just continues to fall. And then we do like the dollar level, the $2.50 level. So $6.4750 would be one. I'm not sure if we hit this. $6.64, yeah, $6.64. $6.4764, we're almost at the $6.4750. That's a major level to bounce. And but there's no reason to get out of the trade. You can see that just riding this four exponential moving average increasing volume here a little bit. There's still fifty minutes before the market closes for the day, and so it's triple witching. So there's volatility and the quarterly options and everything that are are expire are expiring. So there's great trades today. Hopefully you captured that. Both of them on the downside with the melting market, and there you have it. Hope leave a comment in the comment section below. Subscribe for our weekly newsletter. The Dark Pool Report is coming out on Sunday morning, probably 7 a.m. Eastern. It goes out to everybody's mailbox, so don't forget to subscribe. Mobiticktrading.com/weekly-report. First name, email address, and you'll get the report plus last week's as well. All right, happy trading everyone. We'll see. MobyTick has partnered with TrendSpider to bring real-time institutional trades to your charts. Click the link in the description below for more details.
