Big Trade Setups: The Techniques You NEED To Know

Hey there. In this video, we're going to discuss seasonal trends. So seasonality is really important because historically you can go back decades and see how a stock actually behaved over certain weeks, days, months, and then annually. So if we look at a seasonality chart, for example, what we would see is the chart is already complete for the year. And what we're going to do in this video is look for some seasonal trades because we're trading the dark pools. What we want to see is institutional interest coming into the stock. And then we also want to see if there's some seasonal trend to that as kind of another confluence for the trade. And then we want to see maybe if there's dark pool activity. And then we want to see if there's some sort of trend. So really, if you have seasonality, the dark pool, and a trend together, then your success rate on the trade will go up. So the software that I'm using here is called MobyTick. And we are on the seasonality section of Mobitick. And what I'm looking for really is I want stocks with some institutional interest and then seasonality that's starting now. So right now it's October 6th. That's a Sunday, 2024. And what we can do is we can select our date range. So I'm gonna go October 6th, which is today. Custom, and I'm gonna see because it might go through to the end of the year. I'll go say maybe to June. There. This gives me a list of a whole bunch of stocks where seasonality is actually starting and the end date. So for example, this REET. I don't know what that is. So let's find out. It's iShares Global REIT ETF just by hovering over it. And then it's saying the seasonality starts October sixth and ends in December. And for a buy and hold strategy. Might, you might hold it for 86 days. So let's go and see if I click on the chart and click view. And this is saying October 6th to December 31st. We can see here that this is a seasonal trend chart, which goes back. This one is 2014 to 2024. So this is actually giving us 10 years of historical data. We go back maybe 20 years at most. And we know that some stocks really haven't been around 20 years. You know, some are new and we really don't have much of a seasonal trend, but we, where we can populate the data, we actually do. So we can see here, just looking generally, if we're having the conversation about seasonality, this stock in January, it seems to go up for a little bit. And then in February, it drops down. And so we see this kind of zigzag thing. So no matter what time of year it is, the seasonal chart is kind of important because you can say, for example, if we looked the middle of July through August, the end of August, we could say that, well, it's a little choppy, right? If, if we were looking at just the seasonality, but what we're looking for are these confluences. So we're saying, okay, well, starting around now. This one can go up from October all the way through to December, and that would be potentially a buy and hold strategy for 86 days. So I've scrolled down a little bit and we see here that, uh, DAL, Delta Airlines, that starts on Friday and it looks to end in December, and that's a buy and hold possibly for 81 days. Its earnings are October 10th before the market open. And if we choose view, Let's have a look and see what's going on with Delta here. That's where we're at really. So here it looks like the bullish seasonality starts in October and it goes through actually through January. That makes sense. We've got the Canadian Thanksgiving coming up next Monday, and then we have the US one in November. So there's lots of airline travel going on for that. So that might be a good one. So we'll put that on our list. We'll look at Delta as well. So what we do is we go through these items to see if there's anything else that we might be interested in. You can search for individual tickers if you wanted to look up the seasonality directly. I'm going to put in X for US Steel because I was looking at this one before. This one starts October 12th and ends in December. It's a buy and hold for 70 days, but they have earnings coming up. In a couple weeks, so it's October 24th. We're above the prints right now, 35 well by three pennies, and here's the trade right here. There's 605,000 on October 4th. So for U.S. Steel, let's have a look here at the chart. Wow! Look at that! All the way through to January, U.S. Steel might be pretty good. Now when we're looking at these as well, so we have another one. So we've got three that we want to look at. We've got REIT, R-E-E-T. We've got Delta, and then we've got X for U.S. Steel. Okay, what we can do is let's start just with X because it's right here. I'm going to click on it, and this brings us to our print lookup page. So now what we can do all in one screen is we can see seasonality, we can see trend, and we can see the dark pool. And what I really like about this is there's the seasonality. Here's the dark pool. So these are the largest trades by default. Whenever you click on a ticker, you get the top 10 trades in the last calendar year. So we can see that down here on the right-hand side, October 7th to October 6th, 2024. And now on the chart, what we actually see is a big pullback. We've moved up. We've got more prints back on September 12th, and it's pulled back. And now we've got increasing volume. And I'm not sure if that's a bullish engulfing there, but it looks like X might be taking off. And this—you know what? I might put a trade on this myself. Now our targets here. Now there's some technical analysis as well. You have to keep in mind that when these things move, like look, 2.2 million, 2.3 million, 2.9 million. Those sorts of things are important because what we're trying to do is if you're trading options or something, we're trying to catch the options chain off guard so that there's a massive return because usually the volatility is priced into the options. But if it's not priced into the options because the move hasn't really started, then you can benefit, you know, 2, 3, 4, 5-fold or more. So this looks like a good trade and We would need to take some profit. So I would look possibly top of the channel here. So 38, 38, I would look for maybe the top of the channel closer to 40, and then maybe up to 46, especially with the size of these trades. So the other thing that we can do is here on the 4th, there was this one, 35.25. So let's click on this and we'll put that on the chart as well. There's the dark pool there, and we've closed just a little bit above it. So I've scrolled down a little bit and we see here That DAL Delta Airlines that starts on Friday, and it looks to end in December. And that's a buy and hold possibly for 81 days. Its earnings are October 10th before the market open. And if we choose view, let's have a look and see what's going on with Delta. So here it looks like the bullish seasonality starts in October, and it goes through. Actually through January. That makes sense. We've got the Canadian Thanksgiving coming up next Monday, and then we have the US one in November. So there's lots of airline travel going on for that. So we'll put that on our list. We'll look at Delta as well. So what we do is we go through these items to see if there's anything else that we might be interested in. You can search for individual tickers if you wanted to look at the seasonality directly. I'm going to put in X. For U.S. Steel, because I was looking at this one before. This one starts October 12th and ends in December. It's a buy and hold for 70 days, but they have earnings coming up in a couple weeks. So it's October 24th. We're above the prints right now, 35— well, by 3 pennies. And here's the trade right here. There's 605,000 on October 4th. So for U.S. Steel, let's have a look here at the chart. Wow, look at that. All the way through to January, U.S. Steel might be pretty good. Now, when we're looking at these as well, so we have another one. So we've got three that we want to look at. We've got REIT, R E E T. We've got Delta, and then we've got X for U.S. Steel. Okay, what we can do is let's start just with X because it's right here. I'm going to click on it. And this brings us to our print lookup page. So now what we can do all in one screen is we can see seasonality, we can see trend, and we can see the dark pool. And what I really like about this is there's the seasonal, there's the seasonality, here's the dark pool. So these are the largest trades by default whenever you click on a ticker. You get the top 10 trades in the last calendar year. So we can see that down here on the right-hand side, October 7th to October 6th, 2024. And now on the chart, what we actually see is a big pullback. We've moved up, we've got more prints back on September 12th, and it's pulled back. And now we've got increasing volume. X might be taking off. So if we were going to put a trade on X, we might say we're bullish above 35.50. So it would have been nice to get into this on Friday. 35.50, target 39 up here, target 39 for the first profit taking, and then up to 42.50. There's 42, 42.50, and then back up to the print. At 45 is a major dollar level, so 46. And you got to remember that these institutional traders aren't scalping, they're not day traders, they're in it for a longer term. And so it looks like this one's going to move. Okay, let's go ahead and look at Delta, DAL. So I'm going to go up here, we'll do Delta Airlines. So here on Delta Airlines, it looks like a partial of the move has already started. So Again, here's our largest trades in the last year. And September 9th, look at these massive ones. And these were during the market hours too. $1.6 million, $1.5 million, $1.1 million. These were individual trades. September 5th, $8.4 million at $43. So what we're going to look for is this looks like a big run-up here. Maybe we'll have a pullback. And then when we start breaking above here, it's game on. Right, so let's see if we can close above 50/50. And if 50/50, we've got a trade up to 53. So let's write that down. We're going to go Delta Airlines 50/50 to 53, which is this print here. And then we'd have to scroll back and see where else we can go. 53 is a double top. That's really big. But if we break above that, if we break above 53, we would need another target. So after 53, I would say 55 and then 57.50, and that might be good. We'd have to readjust from there. This will be the second test of this 53 on the daily chart. So we might break through that. But part of your trading strategy really is you need to take profit if you're going to, if you're in it for the long term, like from Delta to get up to 57.50. It might take a few weeks or a couple months or something like that, but we have the seasonality, we have the trades, and we need to keep watching to see if they're adding to their position or if they're selling. So the last one we're going to look at is REIT, R-E-E-T. Oh, and before that, we need a bearish position on Delta. So bearish below, if we break down here. Break below 46.50, we might have a trade back down to 43. So bearish below 46.50, and we'll come down here to 45, and then down here to 43.50. This to me looks pretty strong with the seasonality, but I don't want to have the bias. If it is going to go down, we have to have targets. Okay, so let's go ahead and look at REIT, R-E-E-T. Okay, this one has a stronger seasonality starting, and if we look at the trades here, we're just going to scroll back and see what it actually looks like. Now this is a perfect example of institutions getting into a position. So look back here on May 22nd, 500,000 February 23rd, February 21st, June 27th, May 11th. You see these back here. If we go back here and look at February, February 21st, 1.8 million, 425,000. That's massive. And that's this line because these lines actually go and plot the print on the day that it actually occurred. And so this is great for them getting into a position. And this looks like would move slower. So look at this really thick line here. And what we did— I apologize for the refreshing there— what it did is from this point, it went from February all the way down to April, and then it pulled back, and then we got another trade. In April, it pulled back all the way to May, and then we got another trade in May, brought it back up to the print level, came back, and when we close above like this, there were additional trades, and then we took off. So there's all of this support. This is all getting into a position below us. So this is now support, and it looks like here they added to the position. They might be adding here. So we've pulled up to the dollar level like I was mentioning, and then we pulled back to 26, and now we're starting to move up a little, little bit again. I'm not sure what the options are like on this, but we can actually wind up saying we're bullish above 27.50. To be safe, target 28.75, 30, 31.25. And we're going to be bearish below $25.75 down to $24.96. So down to $25. There's a 75-cent move there. And then if we break that, that will have another target from $25 down to $23.31. Okay, so there's our trading plan. And so what we'll do is we'll just put these on a watch list quickly, and then you've got your seasonality, you've got your trends, you've got your dark pool. So we'll go ahead and do the watchlist. Now, if you're interested in MobyTick, the software, I'll put a link in the description. Check out mobytick.com/help and you'll get to see all of the features with in-depth descriptions of what they're doing. And like and subscribe as well for more updates. So let's go ahead and do a quick watchlist. I'm gonna go on watchlist here and we're gonna do add a new watchlist and we're gonna call this one seasonality. Seasonal trade setups. And so I'm going to set my bullish targets at 6, my bearish targets at 6. We'll go back the last 10 big dark pool trades over 5 trading days and the number of prints over 400,000. What this actually does is when we look at the watch list and we start adding things, if there's any new dark pool data that comes in, it shows up right on your watchlist. So let's go ahead here and we'll add a ticker. This one will be X, will be the first one. Then we're going to put in REIT, and then we're going to put in Delta. So for X, what did we say for our trading plan? Well, we had Bullish above 3550 with a target of 39425045. 39425045. And then we'll go below 345031. So now here on the right-hand side, you can actually see the dark pool trades. So in the last few trading days, this is the biggest one. We went over 400,000. This is 600,000. We looked at this trade actually, so we're above that at the moment. So REIT, we were bullish above 27.50, then 28.75 as a target, 30, 31.25, and then bearish below down to 25. And then 2331. Now Delta Airlines, we're bullish above 5050 with a target of 5355, 5750, and then below Is 4650, 45, 4350. As this price crosses the targets, they're going to change color. They're going to go green. If we cross into the red for the bearish below, they're going to go red. These are going to switch to red, and we'll see that. And I'll show you just a sample watch list. Here's one from a previous week, September 30th. So here, these were all the trade setups that I had. SPY bullish above 565, target 570. We're at 573, right? So that's helpful. None of my belows actually got triggered into a trade. So all of the bullish ones that I was watching, they actually worked. So the interesting thing here is, look, AMD, we were bullish above $157 and we made it all the way to $170. So we did have a trade setup for both sides though. If it did this, then that. If it went above a certain level, we had a trade setup. If it went below a certain level, we had a trade setup, which is really good psychologically because you don't want to get caught where it's going against you and then you're like, oh my God, what do I do? You, you have that handled. So here, Vale, the soya one, we were bullish above $10.75. We got up to $11.50 really, but we have a trade here at $11.88, $1.4 million. So this is where you have to be careful. You're still in the trade. So at $11.88 and it's at $11.49. So we have to break above $12 now to get back into the trade, I would think. And I haven't looked at the chart, but that's the reasoning that gets going through my mind at the moment. I hope you enjoyed this video, educational. There'll be more coming with some quick-hit trade setups, things like that. Please don't forget to like and subscribe. Visit the site moviticktrading.com/help for more interesting videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel. All right, have a great trading week ahead. Take care.