Dave Barnhart walks through MobyTick's Seasonality tab to find stocks and ETFs that perform better at certain times of year. The tool shows trend scores, historical averages, and lets you filter by ticker or sector like banks. He demonstrates combining seasonality data with trend and dark-pool information for swing trades or longer-term positions.
Chapters
Hi there, and welcome to this video on seasonality. So what we're going to do is we're going to look at MobyTick on the seasonality tab down here on the left-hand side, down here at the bottom there. And what we have is a list of a whole bunch of tickers and their seasonal trends with some buy and sell dates. So let's have a look here. Normally what we have is we have the ticker, it's the sector, the industry, and then a seasonal start date and an end date. So we try and calculated some buy and sell dates. So this one would say the best return would be to hold it for 197 days starting December 2nd and ending it in June of the following year for an expected gain of 9%. Earnings are coming up December 5th, and right now we're above some recent prints at $178.91. Now what we have is a trend score and whether we're following the trend or not, and right now it's showing that it's a little bit weak. But we can look at the trend chart and let's keep in mind December 2nd through June. So here, this is showing us December. And then if we go through the year, this would take us all the way to June. So that looks like it might be a decent seasonal trend. And then also with these seasonal charts, they're generated every day. And what we can see here is the historical average, which says 2009 to 2024. We try and go back 20 years if we can, otherwise it's the available data. Okay. The red line is the current year, and we can see that there's a little more wild fluctuations with the current year as the seasonal historical average is over many years. So it's smoothed out a little bit more, and this trend seems to be following it. We can filter by prints of a specific size, and we can pick a start date. So here we can choose, say for example, well, this says November 11th. And then we can filter by start date here. This is saying November 12th. We can also pick by sector, industry, or whether it follows the trend. Let's say we want the strong trends. Well, here we have all of the ones that are returning strong, and the trend score is, I think, anything above 75. Perfect score is 1, right? So this one, FXU, I think it's an ETF. It starts in November, ends in May, 177 days. If you were to buy and hold it with a 3.9% gain, And the current price is $39.18. So this is saying November to May, and let's see if this works. So we're going to follow the trend as strong, and we can see that this tends to be moving up. So that's a strong following of the trend. We can filter, or actually we can sort on these where the highest one is 0.96. XSEP is the best one, and if we look at that one, we can see how that's following along. That's actually following along quite well. So these— this tends to work. So we try and match seasonality with trend and the dark pool altogether. This feature is good for people who are looking to invest longer term, or also as a confluence in a trade that you're going to take, whether it's a swing trade or a longer-term trade. Knowing if you're following the trend with the actual prints that we have could be very beneficial. So I'm going to choose only prints, and in this time frame, which says we wanted just the strongest ones, here we have 3 that are returned: ICE, Buffer, and PSEP. For that, we can adjust our from date. We can go all the way back to January, say for example. And I'm going to clear these filters and clear only prints. You can filter by a specific ticker, so let's put in SPY for example. This is strong at 0.84 for the trend. We can see the prints that are there. We're trading at $598.27 at the moment. We can view the chart, and that seems to be quite a decent trend as well. I'm going to clear the filter, and we can do sector, say for example financials. We'll choose banks, and look at all these ones that follow the trend. It's actually pretty good. Follows trend. We can choose all, strong, moderate, weak, inverse, and then you can compare the banks together. So say for example, there's prints on banks. Say you have, say banks are weak. You want to pick the weakest bank to go short and the strongest bank to go long. All right. Well, that's an overview of seasonality. Thank you for watching. In other videos, we're going to pull it all together and see how we use Moby on a day-to-day basis. If you have any questions, please subscribe, hit us up in chat, send us an email, support@mobyticktrading.com. Thank you.
