In this early‑morning market commentary, the host reviews dark‑pool positioning from the past month for the SPY and QQQ ETFs, linking large institutional print volumes to current price action. He outlines the technical framework he uses—200‑day simple and exponential moving averages, 4‑ and 8‑period EMAs, and the Average True Range (ATR)—to identify intraday trade zones. For each ETF he maps both bullish and bearish setups, providing specific entry points, stop‑loss considerations, and a ladder of profit targets ranging from immediate resistance/support levels up to higher pivots. He emphasizes the prevailing downtrend, warning traders to be swift when trading against it and to respect ATR‑derived volatility. The video concludes with a call to subscribe to the weekly Dark Pool Report and a partnership plug for TrendSpider, which supplies real‑time institutional trade data.
Chapters
Good morning, traders. It is Thursday, March 19th at 4:19 a.m. All right, we've got the SPY and we got the QQQs today. That's kind of the theme for this week. The market's been pulling back and we can see that if you've been watching my videos. Let's have a look in the last month. This is usually what we do is we look at the dark pool positioning in the last month and then we see where the price action is relative to that and then we map Intraday trade setups for retracements, bullish above, bearish below, so there's no bias, so we don't miss out on anything. So looking back here, you see starting back here February 20th, and look, look at all of these prints. 5 million. Oh, there's 5, 8, 11, 13, 17, 19. That's about 22, 26 million all in this area. And so there was this distribution pattern here Pulling back, testing prints, pulling back up to the 4, up to the 8 exponential moving average, and pulling back. So we're sitting on my 200 moving average, 200 simple moving average at the moment, and we'll see if this actually holds a little bit. Down here at the bottom, there's 6.7, 3.1, 6.3. Now these are the ones that traded during the market hours. I did that a little bit different so that We could see some other ones that were a little bit smaller, but anyway, uh, they're, uh, this one here, I think it's 7-point-something million. Either way, that's, uh, that's important. So we'll see if we hold this area or we start pulling back. So let's map this out on both sides. We're going to be bullish above $661.50. Let's get up here and target $662.21 and then $662.30 right here. Is this 6.7 million, 662.99, 663.78, and 664.11. That is actually the pivot, and I'm estimating this would be the 4 exponential moving average right here. It's, uh, 664, 663.90, 663.88. But anyway, as this moves up, this moving average here, since it's a smaller one, it'll move relatively quickly with the price. So this here would be from the higher time frame. We could see some resistance here, and you can see here that we've been following the 8 exponential and the 4 on the way down. So when this has been upthrusting, see, we're closing below the 4. This one upthrusts, closed below the 4. This one, all of these closing. This one closed below the 8, and then we're below the 4 again. So You can see this moving down, and so this is a heavy momentum on the downside. So then we've got 666.12 if we make that. Now I've got my 200 exponential moving average here. You can see how wide apart they are. Usually when we're doing these callouts, they're very close to each other, but this is a 200 exponential, 200 simple moving average. Then I've got 667.04 is R1, which would get us up To that point, 668.96. That's actually 8.3 million on there. I don't have that 668.96. Oh, there's a 2 million in here as well. So that's why I put 96 and then 669.02. I've added them together as 6.3 and and a 2 million. Then I've got 667. $669.96. $672.64 is actually R2 if we get up there. So there are some pockets to trade here on the retracement. You have to be very careful going against the trend. This is the trend, right? The larger trend is down. So when you're taking a position in the opposite of the trend, you have to be quick and get out because there's lots of profit taking on retracements which just pull the price down again. You, you're You'll have these big moves up and then and then a pullback. So we're going to be bearish below 659. Let's get below here. I know it's early. If you get this 659.87, you can get this one here on the downside if this one here becomes resistance. So if we break below, hit that and start rolling over, it's just that it's really early in the morning. So I put 659 target 658.51. 657.50, 650, 674, 655.58. Then we've got 652.90, so this is another 2 points there, something like that. Uh, 650, 647.05 is S3, so 650, yeah, 647.05 all the way down here. Now this ATR is just over $9. On this, and you can see because yesterday we were actually we were actually down seven or eight bucks or something at the end of the day. So this one actually moved down, and so yeah, these ones are keeping up with that average about ten dollars. So with the market moving as well, you can maybe expect that move. Let's go ahead and look at the QQQs. Okay, so the QQQs, these ones here, similar sort of thing. You see all of these prints, look at this, 8 million, 2, 2, these are billions and billions and billions of dollars here and we're below all of them. So the only thing here is this is almost testing the 200 simple moving average at the moment. Similar sort of thing with the 4 and the 8 moving down. This is kind of a double bottom here. Let me draw this this rectangle right here. So we've got this right here where the wicks are in there. So if we break below this and test that and move down on the larger time frame, then yeah, we're we're in trouble. So let's go ahead and map this out. We're going to be bullish above 594.12. Let's get up here. We want this to be support, and plus that's an eighth. 8th of a dollar. So we want this to be support, and you can see this from the post-market anyway. That would be good as a springboard maybe to get us up to $595, $595.69, $596.48, $597.20, $596.54. Now that's getting us back up to the, to the pivot, and that's also up to this 4 exponential moving average, potentially maybe up to the 8th if we get up there. So $590 599, 63, 652 is our one. Oh, 600. Yeah, 652. And so this, my 200 simple, 200 exponential, they're quite wide as well. And so just be careful here. This might be the end of the road, but we can maybe get up to 600. That's an 8-point move there. The Q's have been a little bit more volatile than the SPY. This one's This the SPY was just over $9. The Q is the Qs are $10. Okay, so on the downside we're going to be bearish below 591.75. This is starting to move down a little bit. This S1 needs to be resistance, so break, retest, increasing volume. Give it 15 minutes maybe and then move down like that. Target 590.17. Would be the target. 588.94, 586.30, and we've got 585, 582.50, and 580.34 is S3. And clearly the downside is is better, but similar sort of thing here. This is this is support at the moment, so we need this line right here to be resistant. So break. Retest, increasing volume, down, down. Whoop! If that actually happens. So you've got a plan for both sides of the trade. So yeah, please like, share, subscribe. Let us know how you're doing in the comments section below. I love the interaction on our, on our videos. And please subscribe to our weekly Dark Pool Report, which is at mobiticktrading.com/weekly-report, and we'd look at 13 stocks every week. We include the SPY, Q's, IWM for the overall market. We have some market commentary, dark pool education, and we review our trade setups from the previous week as well. And we've been doing well. All right, have a great day everyone, and we'll see you later this afternoon with our results video. MobyTick has partnered with TrendSpider to bring real-time institutional trades to your charts. Click the link in the description below for more details.
