MobyTick analyzes SPY's 18-point rally with volume and moving average levels, then breaks down Nike's post-earnings setup using dark-pool prints and EMA crossovers. He maps entry points, targets, and stops for both bullish and bearish trades.
Chapters
Good morning, traders. It's Wednesday, April first at four fifteen a.m. All right, economic news for today. We've got unemployment, retail sales. That's coming up at eight thirty, eight fifteen, and at ten o'clock we have manufacturing PMI. So if you weren't in the market yesterday or if you saw a massive rally, SPY went up about eighteen points. We got seven point four million shares at six thirty two, and we're at six fifty two. So we went from six thirty. To 650, about that, at the close. So that's an 18-point move on the upside. So let's go ahead and have a look. Here's your prints here, these late prints. There were 54 trades at 632 yesterday. That was 4.9% of all volume traded on, on the SPY. And this volume belongs in the previous day's candle. And so it was $4.7 billion, and it looks like it's a recent bottom. So let's go ahead and have a look. SPY is on the list. And then we've got Nike, which had earnings. So I want to show you guys this. Everybody's super bearish on the market. And then here, this was March 30th, and we had this really bearish candle. So we had this one here on the 29th, and then we opened, moved lower. And then within this, within this, this is something that we have to watch all the time and the institutions. So I'm sure the news is terrible, but look at this. 1,700,000, 3,000,000, 1.2 million, right? All on the 30th, around 6:32, 6:34, 6:36, right? We've got all of these here in this candle right here. And so what happened yesterday is we opened, got a print here, 1.8 million, and we shot all the way up through these other prints here. So now what we need is we need the 6:48 To be support, these prints here, and we seem to be moving up a little higher. I've got my 200 exponential, 200 simple here, and let's see if this can make a higher high. But this actually has to hold here. If we break below these prints, we can come back and retest these ones, and then if we do move lower and then this winds up being resistance, then it's a massive downturn. And I'll show you. Let me switch to the month. So we've got to get 669, 670. Look, we've got these massive prints that are here. 9.4 million is the closest one at 650, 684, and that's getting into all of this resistance. If we plow through this, it's very, very strong, right? So we have these moving averages. I got a 15, my 200 simple, 200 exponential, 200 simple. All of these prints, this is massive overhead resistance right now on that. So we're gonna, we're gonna trade it. This, this was a great Move on the intraday as well. So let's go ahead and have a look here on the intraday. We'll map this out both sides. We're going to be bullish above 654.12. We've got we opened at this cam right at 4 a.m. We've pulled back and we've got this print here, 652.75 as support. So we can move up if this if this winds up being support. I can see us really coming up, uh, and, and moving. So target 655.26, 656.84 is this 9.4 million, 657.80, and then we've got the 658.02 right here is 7.2 million. Then we've got 660.18 as R2, 661.62, and 662.30. These are— that's, uh, what, 11, 12 million? Sitting right here as potentially resistance as well. Six sixty four sixteen is a cam. Then we've got six sixty seven fifty and six sixty nine zero two is six is this six point three million, which would get us all the way up to here. Now I've mapped that out because our ATR now is eleven dollars and twenty four cents. So yesterday really adding to that with an eighteen point move, right? Because an ATR, an average true. Range is the average of the last 14 candles, the high and the low, giving us the the potential move here of plus or minus eleven dollars. On that, we're going to be bearish below 650. Let's get down here. We could probably even do 650, 150 if you like. I've mapped it out at 650. It's really old. It's really early. This is also the post-market support here. 649.10 is next, 648.10. Then we've got the 647.85. This is a print, the 6.7 million and support here. I would expect a bounce. Then we've got, uh, 646.62. It's a double pivot and cam right here. And then below that, we've got 642.88. Down here. Now this is my 200 exponential, 200 simple moving average. This can be a cushion here on the downside. 641.70 is S1, and then when we break— if we break below that, 640, 630, 652, 633.06 is S2. So going from 633 to 650, that's a 17-point move on that. We'll see if this continues. It looks really, really strong, and look at this volume here yesterday. So that's a massive rejection of this downtrend. So I wanted to cover that on the SPY. Let's go ahead and look at Nike. So Nike had earnings and it looks like it fell down the stairs. So these are the largest prints in the last month on Nike, and you can see here March 5th, like look at all of these here, 400K, 200K, 750K, 2.5 million. And when we were coming down here, we would break, get a print, open on these prints. Looks— and when you think of it, think of it like you're the institution, right? And if we're down here and you want to sell more and it moves up, you have that opportunity to sell more at this, at this level and then move down. And you can see how the 4 and the 8 exponential moving average— my 4 is the red one, the blue one is The eight exponential moving average, and we have this trend here, and it opens, closes below. We come back, retest it, move below, retest it, and then down. So we've been on this downside. We're coming back, testing prints, moving down, testing prints. Then we've got earnings, and it tanks. So if we look at the prints in the last week, looks like they knew what was going to happen with earnings because. These are smaller prints in the last week, but we had this consolidation here with this. This looks really decent. This probably rallied with the market anyway just to tank into into the close like that when the earnings were actually reported. I'm going to go back to the month here, and so we're going to be bullish above 48.50. Let's get above this S4. So you can see this post market here; it never got above that. So. 48.50 right here. That's where we're going to go long. Then we've got 49, 49.69, 50. Then we've got 51.11 is S2, and that's as far as I went. The ATR on this one is $1.46. With earnings, it can definitely move quite a bit more. Usually with earnings, they'll sell— like, the institutions will continue to sell 2 to 3 days after earnings as well. But we're going to be bearish below $47.75, and then we've got a target of $47. $46.84 is this S5, then we've got $46, $45, $42.50, and $40 all the way down here. And I just want $2.50, but mind your dollar levels. And your 50-cent levels because the ATR is lower on this. We'll actually see, but we can get definitely because it's after earnings get larger moves, and it looks like potentially this might pull back a little bit more today even if the market is strong. Okay, there you have it. Those are your two trade setups for today. So hopefully you're making great money on these trade setups. So please like, share, subscribe. We have our weekly dark pool report. So it's mobiticktrading.com/weekly-report and first name, email address, and you're all set. Where we cover swing trading and dark pool education, and you get a watch list of 13 tickers every week. And we'll see how it goes. Happy trading, everyone. We'll chat soon. MobyTick has partnered with TrendSpider to bring real-time institutional trades to your charts. Click the link in the description below for more details.
