SPY & USO Hit Many Targets AGAIN — Plus Massive Dark Pool Activity Pre-Fed

Dave Barnhart reviews intraday trades on SPY and USO, breaking down entry and exit levels, volume patterns, and price targets. He flags massive dark pool activity ahead of the Fed's FOMC minutes and press conference, and quantifies potential P&L per contract on each setup.
Chapters
Good afternoon, traders. It's Tuesday, March 17th at 2:57 PM. Let's review our trade setups we had for today. We had SPY and we had USO. So SPY, we were bullish above 669, bearish below 665. So we mapped this out way back here. We were sitting down here on this 3.1 million share print, and so we wanted to get above 669. And this occurred pre-market. We got up here, there's 667, 668, and look at this, 669 here occurred right at just after 8 o'clock. You see this riding the 4 and 8 exponential moving average? Well, it was, it was moving up a little bit, came back, tagged this cam, and then it started moving up. And so there's this 4 million at 669.02, and this just went pretty much parabolic all the way up and hit our target 674.36. So that hit most of our targets. We had mapped this out a few extra higher, 675 and things like that. But these R1s, R2s, you can see how powerful they are, uh, in, in that. And so this hit our targets by 9:45, and then it started pulling back. And so that's what you have there. And this pulled back, and you can see where it was holding support in the moving averages And things there. Now the other thing too is we can overlay the prints as they were coming in during the day. I can do that. And so you can see everything that's orange here, 4 million, these are the late prints. Even though it says March 17th, this is from the previous day, and those were coming in and we broke above that. And then here we had around 673, uh, 673.20, 673.30. There was about Almost 300,000. We upthrusted there, came back, tagged this print here, this 100K, back up to these ones, 673. And then, so we were playing print pong, and now we're just stuck in the middle here. So the trade really was in the morning to the upside, and there's definitely room to make a couple bucks here on the downside as well. You have the increasing volume, we have this tagging, reversing Right? There's a little test thing. There's no volume there, and then breaking below. This is a great entry point. Look at that volume there, and then this one came back and tagged one of the cams. So if you're scalping this from here, the close of this 673 to 671.65, that's $1.40. It's about $70 a contract if you were trading at the money with a 50 delta. So that's, that's pretty good money there. We came up. Increase in volume rolling down again, double test down, and then down to my 161 exponential moving average. So you always got to readjust from where you mapped it out depending, because the market's always changing during the day. And then when we look at it intraday, let me get rid of all of those orange lines. We're stuck between the 4 and the 8 exponential moving average. It's a difficult day now. With this on the higher time frame. So tomorrow FOMC meeting minutes for the FOMC. There's 2 o'clock, 2:30, there's a press conference. So there's a big move. I'm expecting a larger move, whatever they're going to decide. But we have these 6.7 million here. Let me switch to late prints. 7.1 million here. See how it doesn't line up with the, with the day? It's way below here because that volume belongs in the previous day's candle, but it was reported on this day. We never actually traded there. So we held the VWAP 161, and we're above 10.4 million right here. And so if this is bearish and we break below and close below 660, then I think we can probably go down 650, 640, something like that. On the upside, we have targets up here to 680. That's a 10-point move. 682, 685, potentially breaking this downtrend, this recent downtrend that we have there. Okay, let's go ahead and look at USO. We'll switch that one back to market hours here. So USO, we're stuck here at the top, but what we did is we opened, tagged the 4 exponential moving average on the daily, and then moved up a little bit. So I'll scroll back to 4 AM. So we can see what's going on here. That's up here. So USO opened up here right at around 4 AM. This is where we were mapping it out. So we were bullish above 121, bearish below 119.50. See, we had this 120.65. So when we were talking about it this morning, we wanted a break and a retest and volume moving up. But this one actually came up here and then started moving back. So bearish below 119.50. That's why I always talk about not having a bias. So 1950 here happened about 5:25, came back and tagged these prints here from March 13th, 236K. We held that and then we started moving down. So this hit some of the targets pre-market. So by the time the market opened here at 9:30, Here we were already down to 117, and then when the market opened, we came down and tagged this pivot, 116.10. That was my final target for the day, and the low of the day actually here was 116.07. So a 16th off the bottom was our target, and so we— that was a good one. But we had another opportunity here. This one came up, got snagged in my 200 simple, the VWAP, and this R1 at $117.84. Increasing volume, you see this, I'll zoom in, increasing volume and then breaking below again. Then this was a great opportunity to come back and tag that level again. So $117.50 to $116.10 again, it's another $1.40. To trade on that. But this actually double-bottomed here. Higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low. And let's see if this is going to run up a little bit later in the day. All right, um, one thing about the SPY I mentioned that there's, uh, massive prints. Let's go back and we'll look at the dashboard and The late print for today on the SPY, 4 million. And I'll show you something interesting here. If we go and look at the late prints, this is absolutely huge. 7 million the day before, and we got another 4 million today. That's huge. When you look back, like a 5 million is large, 681, we're below that. And then the IWM yesterday $6.7 million, $246.58. This is $1.7 billion. This $7 million yesterday, $4.7 billion. That was so— and here's some context. Out of the entire volume for the day, 82 million shares volume for the day, that's every trade. 8% of that was this one trade, $662.30. So eight percent of the volume that was reported yesterday, this volume belonged in the previous day's candle. So this seven million actually belonged in the thirteenth from Friday. So that's how they get through it. Sneaky, and they don't show you this. This massive position that you can just draw the line on the chart, and these big ones, they are in larger positions now. These smaller ones. They wind up massaging the price action to get it where they want, and then there's a big move in some direction. Okay, there you have it. Those are the results of your trade setups for today. So please like, share, subscribe, and also subscribe to our Dark Pool Weekly Newsletter, mobyticktrading.com/weekly-report. First name, email address, and you'll get the latest one. We do some swing trades. We have 13 swing trades a week. And we do some dark pool education, and every week we wind up seeing how we did with the previous ones, and they've been quite lucrative. So sign up and let's see if we can make some money together. Happy trading, everyone! Mobytick has partnered with TrendSpider to bring real-time institutional trades to your charts. Click the link in the description below for more details.
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