Dave Barnhart breaks down two trade setups on SPY and NVDA ahead of jobs data, pointing to $20 billion in late prints on SPY around $588 and NVIDIA's $25 average true range. He maps key support and resistance levels, 5-minute pivots, and price targets for intraday moves.
Chapters
Good morning, traders. It is Friday, January 10th at 5:54 a.m. There's big news today. Nonfarm payrolls really moves the market historically, and we have the unemployment rate at 8:30. So a couple stocks that I want to cover today: one is the SPY and one is Nvidia. Now the one thing that I want to mention about the SPY— let's have a look at this. These are the late prints, and if you've seen any of my other videos, these are ones that are reported late and are kind of sneaky. But we have $20 billion sitting here around Around $588. We can see that there's actually here a 6.9 billion here. If we go below— if we close below $586 today, then that's great for the short side. And then, but look at all of these, 2.4 billion, $588, 2.7 billion, $595, 2.3 billion, $591. 5.8, all of these ones here, and then this 586.61 is 6.9 billion, and here's a 4.4 billion at 584. So we get below these and close, and we're pretty much, um, below 20 billion in shares here. So that's, um, that's quite a bit. So let's go ahead and have a look. So let's look at the SPY first. So here we've got some massive prints. We can see them all here. This is Favorable more to the downside. We're below the 4 and the 8 on the daily here. We've got these supports for these other prints, 4.5 million, 6 million, 3 million, and so we can come all the way down here. And then on the long side, really, we'd have to get above— close above 590, something like that, in order to go a little bit longer up to the top, up to 601, where there's prints all the way up here. So anyway, we're expecting some volatility today. Let's look at the 5-minute. So for the SPY, we're bullish above 589 to 589.98, 590, 590.48. We can see those, the pivots here, and then also these large prints. We're all around them. So these also are support and resistance, and see how they're lining up with some of these pivots here as well today. So these are, these are going to be where we bump our head. So 591.65, 592.45. If we get above these, then that's quite a good move, and then we can go 592.85, 595. So you'll see we're trading this level to level, and then 597.50 all the way up to 600. We can get up here, 599.19, and then we're bearish below if we break below because it looks like might be more favorable to the downside, but bearish below 586. We got to get below this mess here, all of these prints here, 10 million, 450 thousand, 500 thousand, And this, uh, S1. So we've got to get below this. So we'll be bearish below $586, target $584.07 down here. So that's great, that's a $2 pocket. $583.04, $582.50, $581.65. I've got that as a support line on the daily, but there's also a 1.6 million print here anyway. Uh, $580, $570, $765. Okay, let's go ahead and look at our next one, which is Nvidia. Look at this. We had this massive red candle here, but look at all of these prints. This is looking pretty bearish. 1.7 million, 1.5, 3.3, 9 million, 600,000, 400,000. So all of this is above us. This massive bearish engulfing candle here, we're below the 4 and the 8. I can see it coming all the way down, maybe even to here, maybe not today, but $129. The ATR on Nvidia is about $25 a day. So for it to move from $140 to $130 or $125 down here isn't really out of the range. So let's go ahead and look at our 5-minute. Okay, so I've expanded the chart here so we can see a little bit more. So we're bullish above $142 with a target of $143.50, $144.47, $146.62, $148.48 all the way up here, which is a 1.5 million print. $149.43, and then now we're bearish below $138 with a target of $137.13, $136.60, $134.70, $134.15, $133.60, and $130, and then $127.76. But then we just— if we're— if it's going, then we stay in the trade. Okay. Okay, so there you have it. Happy trading everyone, and, uh, we'll see you this afternoon with our results of our callouts. Have a great one.
