Derek McGowanLoan Officer / Owner, McGowan Mortgages · Branch Manager & Top-Ranked Mortgage Advisor

The Housing Market 🏠🔥 Is Heating Up Before Rates Drop 📉

11 Jul 2026 · 1 min

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In this July 2026 YouTube market update, Derek McGowan warns that the U.S. housing market may be heating up sooner than most expect. He highlights a sharp 10% jump in mortgage rate locks from May to June 2026 and a cumulative 15% increase since June 2025, despite mortgage rates remaining essentially flat over the past 30‑60 days. McGowan explains that this surge in rate locks indicates buyers are re‑entering the market without the usual rate‑drop catalyst, and that those who lock rates now are likely to close on a home within the next 2‑4 months. He projects that if geopolitical tensions (specifically the Middle‑East conflict) ease, rates could fall another 0.5%, potentially triggering a flood of buyer activity. Consequently, he advises viewers planning to purchase a home this year to get pre‑approved now, positioning themselves to act when the market activity spikes.

Chapters

Not many people are talking about is the housing market may be heating up sooner than most people realize. Mortgage rate locks just jumped 10% from May to June of 2026, and they're up 15% since June of 2025. Here's the surprising part. Mortgage rates didn't really improve to drive this extra business. They're basically flat the last 30 or 60 days. Normally it takes mortgage rates to drop before buyers come flooding back into the market, but buyers are coming back anyway. Consider this your 2-month heads up because the people that are locking in their interest rates now, that means they're starting the mortgage process, probably going to close on their home loan the next 2 to 4 months., and then a few weeks later, the following month, you'll see it on the headlines. So if you're, you know, in your plans this year, you're looking to purchase a new home, this is your heads up. The activity's already picking back up. And imagine what will happen when rates being 0.5% elevated already since where they were earlier this spring, when the war in, you know, the Middle East gets resolved, that we should get back to 0.5% in rates. And then imagine the flurry of buyers that are coming in the market. So today's your best time to be pre-approved for your new home.