Stocks & Bitcoin Crashed: Your Game Plan

Welcome to another episode of Beat the Bell. If you checked your portfolio last week, you probably was just like, what the hell just happened? Then you are not alone. The S&P 500 is tracking towards its worst November since 2008. The NASDAQ plummeted 3%, and Bitcoin crashed from $92,000 to under $83,000 in just a few days. But here's the thing, this week is going to be different. So the markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and we've got big, big earnings coming on Tuesday, and you going to need a game plan. So today I am breaking down what happened last week and your exact strategy for this short but critical trading and investing week. So let's get into it. Okay, so let's talk about what went down last week. All right, so Monday the market sold off. NASDAQ was down 0.844%, S&P was down 0.92%. Everyone was essentially waiting for NVIDIA's earnings. And Wednesday. Now, why does one company's earnings matter so much? Let me explain. Nvidia has become the poster child for the entire AI revolution. So think of it like this. If Nvidia is the thermometer, the market is checking to see if AI still has a fever or if it's actually starting to cool down. So when Nvidia reports, Wall Street isn't just judging Nvidia. They're judging whether this whole AI boom is real or just hype. So Wednesday comes and Nvidia crushes expectations. $57 billion in revenue, up 62% year over year, beating estimates of $54.9 billion. So to put that in perspective, they made more money in 3 months than some Fortune 500 companies made in a whole year. So CEO Jensen Huang said Blackwell sales are off the charts and cloud GPUs are sold out. So you think that stocks would fly, right? Well, wrong. Thursday, Nvidia swung from up 5% to down 2%, a 7-point reversal in one day. The whole tech market started to follow. So here is a concept every investor needs to understand, and sometimes stocks fall on good news because everyone expected the good news. It's called priced in. So think of it like this: if I told you I was making your favorite meal for dinner, you would be excited. But if I told you that every single day— if I told you that every single day for a month— by the time dinner came, you wouldn't be as excited anymore, if at all, because you already expected the dinner. So you probably even brought the stock or bought the stocks a week ago, weeks ago, because you expected some good earnings. So when the earnings came out, even if they're great, there's no more buyers left to push the price higher. That's what happened with Nvidia. Okay, so the earnings were phenomenal, but investors are getting nervous about companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build AI data centers without being totally sure that the financial payoff is even there yet. So it's like if you— if your friend borrowed $100,000 to open a restaurant and keeps saying, trust me, trust me, this is going to be huge, you'd eventually want to see actual customers walking through the door, right? And that's where we are with AI. The spending is massive. The potential is real. But Some investors are saying, show me the numbers, show me the actual profit, which makes sense. So the other piece is that the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer than expected. Why does this matter? Let me break it down. High interest rates are like, um, are like gravity for stock prices. So when rates are high, two things happen. First, bonds become more attractive. So why risk money in volatile stocks when you can get 4 to 5% guaranteed in a Treasury bond. Some investors start moving money out of stocks and into bonds. Second, future profits are worth less today. This is wonky, but stay with me. Tech companies promise big profits in the future, but when interest rates are high, those future profits are worth less in today's dollars. So it's like if I promise to pay you $100 in 5 years If interest rates and inflation are high, that $100 won't buy as much then. Same principle with stock valuations. Make sense? I hope so. So here's the perspective that you need. Before you panic, here's what you need to hear. Even after these losses, the S&P 500 is still up 15% for 2025. The Dow is up 11%. The Nasdaq has soared 19%. We just had a terrible week and we're still up double digits for the year. This isn't 2022. This is a healthy market taking a breather after a huge run-up. So think of it like running a marathon. You can't sprint the whole daggone way. Sometimes you got to slow down, tranquilo, catch your breath, right? And then keep going. And that's what's happening here. Now let's talk about crypto because Baby girl, I know this hurt because I was like, ugh. Bitcoin crashed from $92,000 to $84,000. That's 13% in one week and 33% down from its all-time high of $126,080. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 11, the highest reading since tracking began in July 2023. So what is this index? Think of it like a thermometer for emotion in the crypto market. So it measures trading volume, social media sentiment, volatility— excuse me— and market momentum. So when it's high above 75, everybody's greedy and FOMOing, you know what I'm saying? When it's low under 25, everybody's scared and selling. At 11, that's extreme fear. People are panicking, okay? Panicking. So What caused this? Well, pretty much 3 things hitting at the same daggone time. We had storm number 1, which was institutional money left Bitcoin ETFs, and they saw $3.79 billion outflow in November, the biggest monthly outflow since these funds launched in January 2024. So this matters because when Bitcoin ETFs launched, we all thought it is institutional money is here to stay. But it turns out when markets get shaky, institutions pull money out fast. They are not holding, uh, like crypto natives. They're literally traders looking for returns. Storm number 2: the liquidation cascade. Here's where it gets technical, but I need you to understand this. In just 4 hours, over $1.9 billion worth of positions got liquidated. So what does liquidated mean? A lot of crypto traders use something called leverage. They borrow money to make bigger bets. So instead of buying $10,000 of Bitcoin with $10,000 cash, they might put down $1,000 and borrow $9,000 to control $10,000 worth of crypto. So if Bitcoin goes up 10%, they make huge gains on their $1,000. But if Bitcoin drops 10%, They lose their entire $1,000 and their position gets automatically sold, which is liquidated, to pay back the loan. So when Bitcoin started dropping, it triggered a domino effect. Prices dropped, leveraged positions got liquidated. Some of those forced sales caused selling prices to drop more, more liquidations. It's like a stampede once it starts. Everybody's running for the exit, which makes more people run. Storm number 3: macro fear. So the Fed rate cut hopes are fading and inflation concerns are back. When traditional markets get scary, crypto, which is seen as riskier, gets hit even harder. So should you buy Bitcoin here? Well, here's my complete framework. Bitcoin is sitting in what's called a demand zone between $74,500 and $83,800. In plain English, this is a price range where historically buyers have stepped in and supported the price. But just because we're at support doesn't mean we can't break through that support and go, uh, through the support and go lower. So here's what I say: if you believe in Bitcoin long term, 3 to 5 years minimum, and you can afford to lose what you invest, and this would only be 2 to 5% of your portfolio, then consider dollar cost averaging. Don't put it all in today. Set buy orders, maybe at $80,000, $75,000, maybe even $70,000. Spread it out. So if you're asking yourself because you're scared of missing out or you need this money in the next year or two, the answer is no. Wait. There will be other opportunities, I promise you. Okay. Now, this week is Thanksgiving. So let's talk about this week because it's different. Thursday, the markets are closed for Thanksgiving. Friday, they close early at 1 PM Eastern. So that means you've got Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning for full trading, and really that's it. All right, so on Tuesday, we have Dell, Best Buy, HP, Analog Devices, and others reporting their earnings on Tuesday. Dell is the big story, expecting $26.5 to $27.5 billion in revenue with 11% growth year over year. This company is your proxy for AI infrastructure demand. So if Dell beats and guides higher, it could calm some of those AI bubble fears that we just talked about. Best Buy is your consumer health check right before Black Friday. So strong numbers here means that consumers are still spending, and weak numbers means that people are tightening their wallets before the holidays. So here's something interesting. Thanksgiving week has historically been bullish. Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 0.6%, all right, with a 70%, um, positive returns. So the day before Thanksgiving, which is Wednesday, it typically shows positive returns at 76%. But here's the catch: we're coming in super stressed after last week. History does not always repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes. And with lower trading volume this week, price swings can be bigger on smaller trades. So here's what to actually do this week. Okay, so, uh, your first move is to open your brokerage account and look at your allocation. Here's what I mean. Let's say back in January you wanted 60% stocks, 30% bonds, 10% cash. But tech stocks have been on fire. So now your portfolio might actually be 75% stocks because those positions grew so much. That's called drift. You're taking more risk than you planned before. So if tech represents 40% or more of your portfolio just from price appreciation, consider taking 10 to 20% profits because— not because tech is dead, but because concentration does equal risk. Okay, then we have diversification. I know it's not sexy, but it does protect you. Your second move is— this is a holiday week, okay? You've got family, turkey, football, whatever. Don't be refreshing your portfolio every 10 minutes while your relatives are trying to talk to you, okay? Set price alerts instead. Most brokerage apps let you do this, right? So remember, Bitcoin at $80,000, that's the next major support level. The S&P 500 set it at 6600. That's a key technical level. Any stocks you're watching for entry points, set them, set your alerts, and then close the app. You'll get notified if something important happens. Otherwise, do me a favor. Be present with your family. Move number 3. Cash is strategic. Having 10 to 20% of your portfolio in cash or in a money market fund Earning 4 to 5% right now gives you two things. One, peace of mind. So if the market drops another 10%, you're not panicking because you already planned for this. Okay. And buying power. So when real opportunities show up and they will, you have dry powder ready to deploy. So Warren Buffett keeps billions in cash, y'all. Is he scared? No. He is patient. Cash is a position. All right. Number 4, the quality watchlist. So make a list of 5 to 10 quality companies that you'd love to own. Companies with strong earnings, reasonable valuations, solid balance sheets. And I want you to figure out what price would make them a buy for you. Set your alerts. Then, as we know, be patient. Don't try to catch the exact bottom. But if you're buying quality at better prices than 2 weeks ago, then that is a win. Okay, so here's your key takeaways. 4 things to remember. Number 1, last week was brutal, we know, but we're still up 15% for the year. This is volatility, not the end of the bull market. Number 2, this week is short. We got big earnings on Tuesday, close Thursday, and then an early closing on Friday. So don't get trapped in low-volume moves over a long weekend. Number 3, history says that Thanksgiving week tends to be bullish, but we're coming in stressed. So watch Dell and Best Buy earnings Tuesday and Wednesday's price action as well. So they're going to set the tone. Number 4, set your plans, set your alerts, then be present with your family. Peace of mind beats potential gains every single time. Okay, so if this helped you understand what's happening and gave you a clear plan, hit the subscribe button and turn on notifications as well. We are here every week keeping you ahead. If you have specific questions about your situation, text me at 202-217-1035. I read every message, and honestly, I'm here to help you build wealth, not just survive these market swings. All right, so before Thanksgiving, take a minute to be grateful for what you do have. Yes, portfolios may be down slightly. Yes, crypto has crashed, but you're here, you're learning, and you are building something long term. That's what matters. I'm rooting for you, Money Family. Have a blessed Thanksgiving. Stay smart with your money, and I will see you next week when we break down what happened over the holiday. And also, thank you for tuning in, and I am so thankful fulfill for every single one of you. Have a good one.