Dylan PatelFounder and Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis · The semiconductor-AI stack

Taiwan's Memory Crisis Apple's Struggle & Elon's Billion Dollar Vision

26 Aug 2026 · 3 min

Watch on YouTube

2:37

In this informal three‑speaker YouTube discussion, the participants examine a severe DRAM memory shortage in Taiwan that is forcing Apple to hold back M2‑based devices because they cannot source enough memory. They describe how Chinese memory maker CXMT rebuffs Apple’s request for a discount, emphasizing that the market price is already low. The conversation then pivots to Elon Musk’s ambitious goal of reaching $1 trillion in chip‑related revenue within the next two decades, linking that target to his planned TeraFab semiconductor fab and the need for massive memory production. The speakers speculate that Musk’s vision will require a $100 billion revenue ramp in the near term and that analysts’ probing questions are often dismissed. Finally, they note a broader industry shift toward GPUs: SpaceX’s adoption of NVIDIA GPUs, high‑profile engineers like Jeff Dean and Dave Silver leaving CPU‑centric roles to focus on GPU‑heavy projects such as Vera Rubin chips, suggesting a strategic move toward GPU‑centric compute across the tech ecosystem.

Chapters

In Taiwan, one thing I definitely do know is that memory is crimped. The lack of memory is crimping every product out here in Taiwan that they're trying to make and they can't get enough of it. And like Apple has a bunch of M2 chips that they're sitting in a locker somewhere because they can't get memory to put into their phones. Fastest way to revenue is to just start making memory and expand it there.
They're trying to be like, oh, give us, we'll give you a giant order and you'll give us a discount. And CXMT, Chad, mocked them and was like, why would we give you a discount? This is lower than the going rate of memory. And then Apple's like, well, shoot. Like, don't you want to work with us? 'Cause we're Apple. And CXMT is like, who are you? Everyone wants my memory.
So. So I guess Elon's gonna, you need to, need to hit that $1 trillion revenue within a couple, 3 years. So start making memory.
I'm excited to see him smoke a cigar in the TeraFab and make $100 billion of revenue next year because that's the ramp that needs to happen in order for TeraFab to happen. $1 trillion, 2030, 2040. Who's, who's, I think, okay, man, it's, I hate this because I really do. Everyone says this and I really do believe it is Elon makes the late, no, the impossible late. So that means, that means that he's going to get $1 trillion of chip revenue in 2040. Because they, they hate the analysts asking dumb questions. You can be like, well, have you heard of an American company that's guiding to $1 trillion of revenue? What do you think about the competitive prospects of a new entrant in the foundry market? And they're gonna be like, please shut the fuck up. They would, they would really, that would probably be the most triggering questioning possible, but I would love to hear it be asked.
Yeah. He also, he also had a nice tweet where he said SpaceX chooses to install NVIDIA GPUs because they are the best. Pretty matter of fact. Pretty matter of fact. And then, then a bunch of other people saying Jeff Dean left Google because he didn't like CPUs anymore and he wanted to use GPUs so bad, which is the trend for everybody else leaving. It's like Dave Silver leaves, raises, a billion-dollar seed round and then spends the entire thing on Vera Rubin chips, which they have a nice like promo post with Google Cloud about. Why do you think that is?