Gartner predicts search traffic will drop 26%, 40% of Americans use TikTok for search, and more

Gartner predicts that search traffic will drop 26%. They're not just talking about SEO and organic traffic. They're also talking about just all search traffic, which is going to affect paid clicks as well. So they're saying that if there's 25% less traffic by 2026 of people using search engines, and instead they're going to use AI chatbots and other virtual agents, it's going to be where less people are searching, which means less organic clicks, And less paid clicks.

Yeah, look, at the end of the day, what people are already splitting off into Perplexity, ChatGPT, Gemini, right?

But I—

what I'm saying is not right. I'm saying like, you can see it's— people are starting to like move over into different engines, right? Um, that's where I think it's going.

I disagree with this. Do you use Snapchat anymore?

Yeah.

You use Snapchat? Do you think most people use Snapchat anymore?

No.

It's still around and it has A lot of active users still and it's still growing in revenue.

How many users, active users are here? Let's see.

Active users, Snapchat.

MAU Snap.

406 million daily active users.

800 million monthly active.

Yeah, so a lot.

Yeah, so it's a good amount of people, yes.

And if you look at the status chart, it's going up and to the right still. But yet people talk about like, oh, no one uses Snap. Oh, you know, TikTok was going to kill Instagram. Instagram's still popular. Oh, no one's going to use YouTube now because of TikTok.

But a 26% drop isn't killing anything. No, no, but it's not even that.

Yes, but did Instagram get a drop? Did Snapchat get a drop? Did TikTok get a drop? What's happening is, is people are just using all the platforms. Google's made a lot of change. There's been a lot of social networks. People search on TikTok now, the younger generation. You have a stat in here about that too. What's the stat? 40% of Americans—

For searching TikTok. 40% of Americans use TikTok for search. Which you and I don't do, by the way.

Yeah, we don't do. Yeah, I barely use TikTok, but I'm on it. My team posts for me. I create the content though. But even then, with people searching on TikTok and Instagram, and a Google VP talked about that, Google's traffic hasn't been dying down. All I'm getting at is there's alternatives. Yeah, ChatGPT is super popular. Why hasn't that killed Google at all?

Yeah, but you're actually not disagreeing with me because you're actually agreeing with me because I was like, I'm saying there's more platforms.

No, I'm saying there's more platforms, but I'm saying there's not going to be a 26% decrease.

Oh, okay.

I'm saying that People will use Google for certain instances and ChatGPT, and there's a use case for both and they'll keep growing.

I think so. I would agree with the Gartner piece. I don't know if it's 26% or so. I think there's going to be a drop because like the way we search is not going to be the traditional 10 blue links. I think they're just focusing on the 10 blue links.

Yeah, but they're already adjusting how they're doing search. Google is adapting. Facebook adapts.

Instagram adapts. I think it's still largely the same, right? I think it's going to change significantly. I think they're Counter, their point might be like, hey, search is going to change quite a bit. And search as we know it is going to have a significant drop. But that being said, like, people are still going to be searching for stuff always.

I don't see a 26% drop in Google and/or search engines because search engines will adapt. It's like saying, oh, TikTok came out, we're going to see, and it's so popular, we're going to see a decrease in usage of Instagram. Not really. The way people consume content has changed because of TikTok. It's called TikTokification. We all want short-form content.

So I think we're saying things in different ways. Like, The way I'm thinking about it is like search as we know it's going to change. And so like they can say it's a drop, but I think it's still— people are still going to be searching for things. In fact, I think the people searching for things is going to go even higher as time goes on. Yes. Yeah.

So I think the big thing here is we're not arguing that search is going to change. We both are on the same page of that. We both feel platforms are going to adapt. Google's already adapting. They have been adapting for a long time. Google's had AI people in their organization for ages now. And platforms like social and other ones have adapted over the years. It's common. I don't believe there's going to be a 26% drop in search. I don't think Google will be the same as it is or nor will Bing or even TikTok search in 3, 4 years from now. But I don't think it's going to see a drop in traffic. I actually think they're going to see more people using Google for search.

Yeah. I think, look, the way this headline's structured, right? I think long-term, We're agreeing that net-net there's going to be an increase in usage. I think they're just saying search as we know it is going to change, right? And so, you know, and plus it's an interesting headline for them to write too.

Like, I don't think they're saying search as we know it is going to change. I think they're saying search is going to drop 26%.

They put it here, right? Traditional search traffic. Yeah, traditional search engine volume will drop, but the keyword is traditional. Like, what does that even mean?

Yeah, but It's not traditional. They can't look at it from traditional because all these platforms have adapted since their beginnings. And what, you think they're going to stop adapting now?

Well, that's what I'm saying. They're using that word.

I think this is a ton of clickbait.

Yeah. Well, I mean, Austin Rief, who sent this out, by the way, so he's one of the co-founders of Morning Brew. He said there's no better time to have an engaged newsletter. And yesterday I was talking to a creator. She actually, like, you know, she left her job earlier, was working at a popular startup. We'll just call it that. And she's just focused on creating now. She's like, I don't want to make a newsletter. I don't want to make a community. I was like, so how are you going to make your money? She's like, sponsorships. I was like, then I gave her the logic. I was like, hey, Japan's in recession right now. Germany's in recession right now. UK's in recession. Do you think we're in a recession or not? And what gets cut during recessions? Like sponsorships, right? I was like, probably should think about like protecting yourself and insulating yourself long-term. By the way, Neil and I have an agency owners group called the Agency Owners Association. All you have to do, just go to marketingschool.io/agency. Once again, it's marketingschool.io/agency to learn more. And now back to the show.

Talking about, he said there's no better time to have an engaged newsletter. We both have newsletters. We have some friends who have really engaged newsletters. And I remember one of our mutual friends, she talked about Morning Brew being sold for X dollars or Business Insider bought them.

Axios for $550 million.

Yeah. And she kept giving numbers. And my comment to her, I left a comment or was it a direct message? I don't know. It was one or the other. was why not just go after a bigger TAM? Newsletters aren't big businesses. I'm not saying I've created a big business, right? Just to clarify on that point. But they're not big businesses.

They're supplemental to your business.

Yeah. Like, they're not good businesses. You should have a newsletter. I think they're amazing for marketing. But no one should create a newsletter as a business. You're, you're not really solving major problems with it. Hence the TAM for them are really tiny compared to You know, creating an AI solution like Sora. That's revolutionary. That's a big business. I don't have that in me to create anything like that, but I just think newsletters are bad business.

They're just great for marketing. Just so on that note, like the way we use it, just for everyone to understand, like we have a higher LTV service or product in the backend and we use the newsletter to drive people to that, whether it's to a webinar or driving people to booking calls. That's how we use it.

That's how you use it. What's your higher-end backend?

No, it's same, same thing for you. It's the hiring backend is our services.

Yeah, we're using newsletters as a marketing channel. We're not using a newsletter. And Austin isn't saying this. He just said it's no better time to have engaged newsletter. That doesn't mean he's saying you should charge for your newsletter or not. I think paid newsletters are bad businesses.

I agree with that. I think— and look, there are some good business. I mean, like, you know, I have, I have a friend like Matt Paulson. He talks pretty openly about his newsletter. They do like $30 million a year, which is great. But the majority of the revenue comes from sponsorships. Right. And that's how he does it. I don't— I think that's difficult. But, you know, he's done it for a long time, and he's good at it. So good for him.

He's the one who does finance newsletters, right?

Correct.

The thing with finance, I've seen newsletters work in a lot of industries. But finance is the one that I've seen it work the best. And if, you know, you look at the poster child for it, they've been doing it for ages is Agora. And the reason I think it works so well for Agora is in finance, they're giving you tips In theory, quote unquote, I'm not saying they actually do, but in theory, that will make you more money. And I think anything that is you pay and it makes you more money or the dream of that or the illusion of it, whatever you want to call it.

The perception.

The perception.

Yeah.

That converts extremely well.

Yeah. Because everyone wants to do better. Everyone wants to improve their life.

Dude, just think about how many newsletters are crushing it right now with crypto going up.

Oh yeah. They're all back now.

They're all back and they're making a killing. They're like, oh, Bitcoin almost at all-time highs now. Yeah, you got to get on. It's going to go even higher. They're saying it's going to go to $100,000, $200,000. Are you going to catch this? And if you look at what a lot of people invest in crypto, it's not because they believe in Bitcoin being the future currency or anything like that, or they don't believe in the US currency. They look at it as a quick way to get rich. That is a majority of the people that are just buying and selling.

This message is brought to you by Single Grain. Single Grain is a marketing agency ran by yours truly. Single Grain does paid media, SEO, creative, conversion rate optimization, and has worked with a handful of companies such as Uber, Amazon, Airbnb, Salesforce, to startups, venture-backed startups, a lot of different companies. And ultimately our mission is to do innovative marketing that drives customers. If you wanna learn more, just go to singlegrain.com. Again, it's Single Grain, grain like wheat, and we'll see you on the other side. I mean, let's talk about the marketing genius of Bitcoin, right? I never thought that the ETFs— like, do you know how much has flown through the, um, or gone through the ETF so far in terms of volume? The Bitcoin ETF?

If I had to guess, hundreds of billions? No, no, no.

$10 billion, right? $10 billion. But that's, that's, I, I, that's one of the largest. Like, it's one of the fastest growing.

Just one or all of them?

All of them. $10 billion, right? But then what happens if it continues to grow higher and higher?

Are you talking about $10 billion total? Is there how much money they have?

$10 billion has flown into the ETFs.

Yeah, but what's flown out and then flown back in?

I don't— flow in— is this flowing? Flow is not the right word. Flowed. Flowed into. Yeah.

What's a Bitcoin ETF? I don't know.

Like BlackRock. Type in BlackRock ETF. BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.

Yep.

Bitcoin ETF.

Yep.

It doesn't give me the symbol.

Well, here, search. Like, here, let me— I'm going to talk while you search real quick.

IBIT?

Yes, that's it. The genius of Bitcoin, right?

Market cap, $121 billion. I don't know where you're getting $10 billion from. That just seems too low. Well, average daily volume is $22 million. So 22, 1, 2, 3 times 35, that would be $770 million a day.

How much has gone into these Bitcoin ETFs since this?

I'm telling you, it has to be way more than $10 billion. I would tell you it's more than— if I had to guess, it's over $100 billion.

Okay. So net inflows, this is from Bloomberg 3 hours ago, right? Fidelity-wise, Origin Bitcoin Fund, which has attracted net inflows— inflows was what I was looking for— of $4.5 billion since its inception. So total is ten billion.

Yeah, but there's what I'm getting at is there could be inflows, but there's outflows, and then there's more inflows.

Uh huh.

Because if your average volume is twenty two million a day for this Bitcoin ETF, you're seven hundred and seventy million a day.

Point is, there's a lot of there's a bonanza for this right now.

Yeah, there's a bonanza, but there's way more than ten billion. The ten billion number just seems off. It seems too low.

I read that. I think Pomp tweeted that yesterday. I'm going to look for it. But point is, look, there's a lot of demand and there's only 900 new Bitcoin being minted every day.

Vanguard closes in on BlackRock's ETF crown with $45 billion haul. $45 billion haul.

Vanguard?

Yeah.

So Vanguard's in now.

Vanguard's in. But no, they're already— dude, the Bitcoin ETF, and this is why I don't understand when you're saying $10 billion, its market cap is $121 billion.

Oh, I got it. I got it. Here, here's— I misspoke. BlackRock Bitcoin ETF hit $10 billion in assets under management in less than 2 months. Almost no one expected that to happen quickly.

Yeah, but it's now at a $121 billion market cap.

Well, we're talking assets under management though, and your market cap can be different from assets under management.

Yeah, you know, you're right on that, but I doubt they only have $10 billion.

I believe— I think $10 billion assets under management and $120 billion market cap makes sense.

No.

Well, point is, okay, let's give the lesson to everyone. The lesson here is like, look, Bitcoin's just been doing this thing, its thing since 2008. I believe that's the inception, right? And people are like, oh my God, it's going to go up, it's going to go down, it's going to go up, it's going to go down. What matters is it's just worked for all this period of time. And at the end of the day, that's something you can't argue with. The product just works, right? And then you have all this like mystery behind it. Like, why is the Bitcoin white paper in every single Apple product? I bet you it's in your— search for it. It's on your Apple right now.

What's on my Apple right now?

On your MacBook.

Okay.

The Satoshi Nakamoto white paper is there. Search for it.

How do you spell Satoshi? S-A?

S-A-T-O-S-H-I.

Okay. Satoshi white paper?

Yeah, just type Bitcoin white paper or something.

I don't have it.

Bitcoin white paper on Apple. Here. Oh, type type this in. Simple doc dot PDF.

Simple doc dot PDF.

Uh huh.

Nope, there's no simple doc dot PDF. The camera can see on my screen. I don't have any of this. It's you.

No no no no no. Here, I'm gonna find it. What you you continue. Let's continue to talk about the marketing genius of this.

Either way, look, I don't know how ETFs work. All I know is.

Yeah, Neil and I don't have ETFs. I don't have any ETFs. Yeah yeah.

I just know that. Their daily average volume is $770 million. I don't know how much that means of Bitcoin being traded, but I'm assuming it's Bitcoin because it's a Bitcoin ETF. Either way, it just shows that when there's hype around something, it's actually really easy to do marketing. You can just pump things out really, really fast.

My whole thing on it is like, you know, people are saying all these things when people are fighting each other about something they really believe in, which is money, right? And this thing just quietly working in the background, and then more and more people want it. The market wants it. That that's how it just continues to to grow, right? Sometimes it's just like a good product that works for decades, and then it becomes really big. So give me your computer. I'm going to find it.

No, no, no, no. I'll type it in. What do you want me to type?

No. Okay.

There's no white paper.

We're just going to go to the next episode. That's it for today, guys. Marketing school dot io slash agency. If you want to learn about the Agency Owners Association, which where you can hang out with Neil and I in person, where we'll talk about Bitcoin, right? And more importantly, we'll talk about growing your agency. And don't forget to rate, review, subscribe, and we'll see you tomorrow. See you tomorrow.