Eric Siu breaks down four physical bottlenecks that could limit AI growth through 2030: indium phosphide wafers made by only two non-Chinese companies, advanced packaging controlled by four firms, power turbines backlogged years out, and critical minerals. China's export controls on gallium, germanium, and antimony expire November 27, 2026.
What is the smallest object, Neil, that if it stopped being made tomorrow would freeze the entire AI industry by Friday? Memory. No, it's a polished piece of indium phosphide the size of a coaster grown in a furnace over 2 weeks, made by exactly 2 companies in the world that are not Chinese. It's not a chip, it's not a GPU, it's not a model. The 2026 to 2030 AI buildup is gated by 4 physical constraints and almost nothing else. Number one is indium phosphide wafers, advanced packaging, 4 companies on Earth that matter, power, Okay, industrial gas turbines sold out into 2030, and you have critical minerals. Chinese pause on gallium, germanium, and antimony export controls expires November 27th, 2026.
