Eric Siu bets $10,000 that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cognition will exceed revenue expectations within five to ten years. He points to 800 million OpenAI users and major companies like Accenture and Walmart cutting headcount to invest in AI. Siu argues startups prioritize user growth first, then monetize through ads and tiered subscriptions.
So I'm literally arguing with a finance YouTuber right now on this, and I bet him $10,000 that— here's my bet. You can tell me if my bet's unreasonable, but I basically said, look, you look at the usage, it's going up right now. Companies are literally cutting headcount. Not saying that's a good thing, but they are cutting headcount. That means they're seeing value somewhere, right? If Accenture is going to cut 11,000, Salesforce cut 4,000, and Walmart's like, oh, we're going to keep our headcount flat. Okay, something's happening, right? I'm like, dude, like, OpenAI has 800 million users. And he's like, well, that the $20 a month is never going to grow into the revenue that they— I'm like, dude, in startups, you go for the users, and then you can turn on ads later, you can do whatever you want with the users later. It's not just going to be a $20 a month thing, right? And he's arguing with me back. I'm like, okay, I'll bet you $10,000. Okay, I bet you OpenAI, Anthropic, Cognition in the next 5 years, I'll even give you 10 years on it, their valuation plus their revenue, valuation or revenue is going to be higher.
