Is Conflict in Taiwan Inevitable? | Dmitri Alperovitch on America’s Race to Beat China

What's your take on Taiwan? Do you think conflict there is inevitable? And how should the US realistically prepare for that scenario?

I don't think conflict over Taiwan is inevitable, but clearly Xi Jinping wants to take Taiwan. I believe he wants to take it on his own. Watch. The man is in his early 70s. He'll be up for reelection in 2027 for an unprecedented fourth year term, which he's very likely to get unless some sort of health issues or something else comes in his way. That'll be another five year term that will expire in 2032. In 2032, he'll be 79. So in the Chinese system, unlike hours, they don't tend to elect their leaders into their 80s. So quite possibly, and also, you know, health concerns may get in the way as well. Quite possibly he'll be thinking in 27 once he gets into office, that that five year term may be his last. And whatever is left on the to do list needs to get done in that five year period to cement his legacy. And I believe Taiwan is on that list now. It doesn't mean that he's for sure invading Taiwan. It is very difficult to pull off. There's a lot of uncertainty around success and particularly if he fails, the stakes are incredibly high for him. It could be the end of his life. It could be the end of the Chinese Communist Party's hold on power in China. So he needs to have a great deal of confidence that he can actually do this without severe ramifications for China or himself personally. And we can impact that calculus. We can enhance deterrence, we can ensure that we're more independent from China in the economic sphere so that he doesn't think that we are so intertwined that we will never fight for Taiwan. We want him to think, whether we do it or not, we want him to think that we might very well defend Taiwan. And then things get much, much harder for the Chinese military in terms of being able to accomplish this task.