Hannah HammondFounder & CEO, HB Capital & The Firm RE · CEO of HB Capital | Helping CRE Developers & Investors Fund Deals Nationwide | Host of The Hannah Hammond Show

CRE isn’t crashing—it’s shifting.Debt is rising. Defaults are coming.Smart investors will win.

Name: CRE isn’t crashing—it’s shifting.Debt is rising. Defaults are coming.Smart investors will win.
Uploaded: 2025-05-19T02:39:19+00:00
Duration: 1 min 1 s
Channel: Hannah Hammond
Description: Hannah Hammond breaks down the commercial real estate market: roughly $1.5 trillion of CRE debt matures by end of 2025, with about 10% of office debt…

19 May 2025 · 1 min

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1:01

Hannah Hammond breaks down the commercial real estate market: roughly $1.5 trillion of CRE debt matures by end of 2025, with about 10% of office debt already in default. She expects up to 25% of maturing CRE debt could become distressed, but sees opportunities for investors with conservative leverage or strong equity positions.

Questions this video answers

$1.5 trillion

About 10%

Potentially 25%

$30 million

Chapters

Is the commercial real estate market crashing? Well, the answer is yes and no. I don't think we're going to see a crash like we did in 2008. However, there is a lot of commercial real estate debt that is in distress. And we also have $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate debt coming due by the end of 2025, which is this year that we're in now. Currently, in the office sector, about 10% of the debt nationally is in default. This means the investors are upside down and there's opportunities in that pain to reposition, completely, change their use to retail or mixed use or other sectors that are going to be a better use for that. It is estimated that potentially 25% of that could be distressed debt. And because interest rates are still high and it's very hard for some of these investors to refinance and make the numbers work, this is where we're going to see a lot of the pain in the commercial real estate market. However, with pain comes opportunity. One friend of mine that has a $30 million note coming due in just a few months, but I know a lot of other people that were able to still do good deals because they didn't overleverage themselves. They had enough common equity in the deal. They are able to refinance even at the higher rate, and they're still going to be okay.